2012 and onwards Predictions

Conrad

TheEnigma wrote: »

If you are right thenit will only postpone the bottom for house prices.

We will not see the bottom until interest rates are back to normal. The longer they drag this out the bigger the fall will be.

My commercial mortgage is at just 2.5% so I'm using the opportunity to clear the captial faster. Rising rates are a fact of life 99% of us will cope with just as we always do, afterall, repos tend to hover around 1% even in the ealry 90's with high interest rates - funny how we just adapt and cope us Humans, you see the sky does not fall in, we just adapt just as we did to WW1 & 2. Rising rates will be coupled with substantive growth anyway, so more wealth to cope with interest rises when they come in 2 years time.

OptionARMAGEDDON

TheEnigma wrote: »

If you are right thenit will only postpone the bottom for house prices.

We will not see the bottom until interest rates are back to normal. The longer they drag this out the bigger the fall will be.

I think you are wrong. the longer they drag this out, the longer I will be paying 1.2% off my outstanding mortgage off a month...:money:

2.49% variable is looking increasingly like the best financial move I ever made.

Flight2quality

Conrad wrote: »

Nope we're heading to the greatest period of wealth creation yet seen. 3 years from now we'll be well underway.

Absolutely right, wealth is going to be transferring from people without gold and silver to the people who have it. It may take longer than 3 years though.

During this time house prices will carry on falling. Another 5% down next yr 10% in real terms, but do not try to catch a falling knife wait till is hits bottom which will be whenever rates go back to normal for house prices.

Cleaver

Flight2quality wrote: »

Absolutely right, wealth is going to be transferring from people without gold and silver to the people who have it.

Can you illustrate to me how this will happen? Say, for example, that I own a mixture of investments excluding gold and silver that rise 40% over the next three years and gold and silver fall 20% over the next three years how will my wealth transfer to people who have gold and silver?

Flight2quality

Cleaver wrote: »

Can you illustrate to me how this will happen? Say, for example, that I own a mixture of investments excluding gold and silver that rise 40% over the next three years and gold and silver fall 20% over the next three years how will my wealth transfer to people who have gold and silver?

This cycle will end in a blow off top for gold and silver just like the end of the last bull market in the late 70's.

This bull market will surpass the last time because its the entire world involved this time round.

If gold and silver could possibly fall 20% from here then I will be a happy man because I will be accumulating big time.

I look at the big picture not the short term noise. The big picture is gold and silver are in a bull market and property is in a bear market. This will last years yet before gold gets overvalued and houses get undervalued then they will reverse again.

Cleaver

Flight2quality wrote: »

This cycle will end in a blow off top for gold and silver just like the end of the last bull market in the late 70's.

This bull market will surpass the last time because its the entire world involved this time round.

If gold and silver could possibly fall 20% from here then I will be a happy man because I will be accumulating big time.

I look at the big picture not the short term noise. The big picture is gold and silver are in a bull market and property is in a bear market. This will last years yet before gold gets overvalued and houses get undervalued then they will reverse again.

Sorry, let me ask again. Let's say I hold investments other than gold and silver and you only hold gold and silver. Over the next 5, 10 and 20 years my investments outperform your investments. How will my wealth transfer to you? I'm not interested in your opinion of how gold and silver will perform.

Road_Hog

Flight2quality wrote: »

I look at the big picture not the short term noise. The big picture is gold and silver are in a bull market and property is in a bear market. This will last years yet before gold gets overvalued and houses get undervalued then they will reverse again.

So you're jumping into the bull market and ignoring the bear market, buying in at the top.

FTBFun

Flight2quality wrote: »

Absolutely right, wealth is going to be transferring from people without gold and silver to the people who have it. It may take longer than 3 years though.

You have a grand's worth of silver. Do you want the cash right now?

Going4TheDream

Road_Hog wrote: »

The USD has something that other currencies don't have. It is the world's reserve currency and most importantly the currency you need to buy oil.

So all countries that need to buy oil, need USD, which is what keeps it propped up. Of course, if a number of oil producing countries decided on using a different currency, then the US economy would go into meltdown as the dollar plunged and people shunned it.

Of course America wouldn't let that happen, so every time a country starts the process, the war on terror descends upon them or suddenly their leader becomes a despot and the people need liberating and a new government, that is happy to sell oil for USD.

And Saddam Hussein wanted to trade it in Euros

Cleaver

FTBFun wrote: »

You have a grand's worth of silver. Do you want the cash right now?

I always forget that I own roughly the same amount of gold and silver as Fight4YourRight / Engima / Realmoney.