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Debate House Prices
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2012 and onwards Predictions
Comments
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Flight2quality wrote: »I am sticking to what I have always said, house prices will see a 50% crash from top to bottom in real terms.
What is real terms? Ounces of silver?0 -
Flight2quality wrote: »Yes all fiat currencies are in a race to debase. They are all racing each other to the bottom.
But the UK pound will not always be near the front of this race, as other fiat currencies pick up spead in the race housing in the UK will look less attractive.
You could see lots of selling as other currencies get abused more than the pound sterling.
What, people will live in tents because of currency devaluation?
That doesn't make any sense.0 -
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Manufacturing growth and rapid expansion from certain arenas such as Bio - engineering.
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You certainly love this Bio engineering thing Conrad, I'll give you that
But it's far too niche mate. Maybe around a couple of university towns.
I can confidently predict a paucity of gene factories around parts of Manchester and Lancashire (to replace the jean factories).0 -
Here's a Q.
If home ownership continues to decrease, and a large proportion of the current and next generation end up renting in the future, does this affect the nature of the housing stock ?
Will we see houses become more utilitarian ? Why spend on fancy kitchens when a basic one will do. Could it mean that ex-B2L properties have less 'wow factor' for the private buyer who does spring up ?0 -
Really was that back in Sept 2011?
For the Record I thought we would see 20-30% nominal falls.
All other falls would be like in previous crashes and would be in real terms up to around 2013-2015.
Similar to the 80's/90's (virtual nominal stagnation for around 4-5 years after the crash)
Now to my mind no "bear" on here was calling that in 2008, most were calling 50%+ nominal falls. You were classed as a "bull" for thinking the above.
So there seems to have been a drastic shift of where the "bears" now think falls will come from as it has shifted from nominal to real.
If you think in real terms you have to admit late 2008/2009 was the best time to buy. Virtually the nominal bottom and the lowest rates.
Wow 20 to 30% nominal falls? Shocking :eek: With inflation over 5% now, I only think another 10% real fall in 2012 (5% nominal) who knows what or when the bottom will be. It does depend when interest rates go back up, the longer they stay abnormally low the longer the bottom will take to arrive.0 -
Flight2quality wrote: »
As I have always said we will not see the bottom of this cycle until interest rates go back to normal levels, the longer they postpone that the longer they keep prices propped up and they drag out the crash
We won't see rising rates until the economy is in proper recovery mode, and by then people will be better places to accomodate the rises.
Such rate rises will be in baby steps - one sniff of this leading to large scale difficulty and they will not raise further.
Rising inflation is possibly here to stay but the old style interest rate manipualtion is too toxic to be attempted any time soon.
People buying now will have made a good deal more equity lets say by 2025 compared to those fudgling along with renting and saving. Buyers are can do types, trying to bean count every scenario is just not on thier radar and once again the overly cautious will learn a horrible lesson in time.0 -
I predict:
A record number of sockies
Arguements & bannings about gold & silver threads
Lots of fairly mundane arguements by bears regarding a 0.3% drop
Lots of mundane arguements by bulls regarding a 0.3% increase
lots of mundane arguements between bulls & bears
Finding the occasional nugget of useful information and debate amongst the increasing dross
What do I win?It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.0 -
You certainly love this Bio engineering thing Conrad, I'll give you that
But it's far too niche mate. Maybe around a couple of university towns.
It's but one of a tranche of endeavours that like IT will have far reaching changes and represents the next industrial revolution.
Your'e missing the big picture, here's but one example;
We already use ecoli to produce 90% of medical insulin.
There are sevral plants now using engineered bacteria that expell fuel as thier waste matter. These of sorts of developments are huge and will change everything.
Imagine the early oil explorers - people were saying back then that it was niche!0 -
We won't see rising rates until the economy is in proper recovery mode, and by then people will be better places to accomodate the rises.
I can not see the proper recovery mode for a long time yet. The question is can the BOE keep base rates so low as inflation gets out of control in years to come?
I remember not so long ago inflation was around 2% and the BOE saying sorry we were so wrong yet again it will come down soon do not worry no need to raise base rate yet.
Now its over 5%.
The longer it takes to get interest rates back to normal the longer the bottom will take. All they can do is extend and pretend.0 -
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Imagine the early oil explorers - people were saying back then that it was niche!
True, but there aren't that many oil wells around here either
These new technologies do bring change, and they bring wealth - sometimes to a wider group of people for a while.
Then you find it all owned by the Bio equivalent of Billy Gates.
I'm still not convinced the resulting wealth will trickle down to every street corner in Bradford, Hull, Reading, Peterborough etc etc.0
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