2012 and onwards Predictions

Flight2quality

I am sticking to what I have always said, house prices will see a 50% crash from top to bottom in real terms.

We are about 20% or so down so far, I can see easily another 10% real fall in 2012 and similar next few years.

House prices could touch bottom around 2014/15.

Really2

Flight2quality wrote: »

I am sticking to what I have always said, house prices will see a 50% crash from top to bottom in real terms.

Since Sept 2011, glad to see you have not changed your mind since then.

Unless you mean you have other user names.................;)

MrRee_2

I can tell you right now that in the South values are firm, asking prices are being achieved and the only way is up.

This is a genuine observation - and a painful one (as I want to buy!) - I am being outbid and am being beaten to viewings ..... it is not a pleasant feeling, after I was the only buyer around in 2009 - not now!

In the South properties will be 10% higher by next summer - of that I am sure. It's just silly - but, there we are, that's what I am witnessing currently.

Flight2quality

I am talking about average UK, includes England, Scotland and Wales etc.... I know London is different.

julieq

TRUST precious metals rampers

Flight2quality

julieq wrote: »

TRUST precious metals rampers

Very good argument why I must be wrong to say 50% real falls from top to bottom.

Can not argue with your well thought out reasonable debate :rotfl:

MrRee_2

I've said it before and I'll say it again ...... every single property has a floor to its value.

That floor is where the BTL's step in and buy - which is at 7% or above Yield.

Find a property you are interested in, find out what the rental per year is, work out what the 7% yield point would be and there you have your base figure for that property ...... it really is as simple as that.

And, I can tell you all right now ... we are very close to asking prices hitting that magic 'BUY' figure - so, further falls just cannot happen - it is a dead certainty that we are bouncing along the bottom.

Conrad

Prices stabilised and slowly rising as we progress through 2012.

Manufacturing growth and rapid expansion from certain arenas such as Bio - engineering.

Flight to UK safety as foreign investors avoid much of Europe.

UK continuing to benefit from reducing regulation, low pound and a bsuiness freindly meta landscape.

B2L proportion of market to rise to c18%.

UK exports rising as we take advantage of trade with the commonwealth and many developing nations, despite European difficulty.

Flight2quality

MrRee wrote: »

I've said it before and I'll say it again ...... every single property has a floor to its value.

That floor is where the BTL's step in and buy - which is at 7% or above Yield.

Find a property you are interested in, find out what the rental per year is, work out what the 7% yield point would be and there you have your base figure for that property ...... it really is as simple as that.

And, I can tell you all right now ... we are very close to asking prices hitting that magic 'BUY' figure - so, further falls just cannot happen - it is a dead certainty that we are bouncing along the bottom.

The house price bulls were saying similar then house prices fell another 10%.

Next year prices will have fallen another 10% in real terms and the last few bulls will keep saying no this really is the bottom.

Then interest rates will go back up to more normal figures and the smart ones will all try and sell ASAP.

The less smart ones will try and keep up with the monthly payments but real wages still falling for years yet plus unemployment will still keep going up at the same rate.

The other things that will continue going up are inflation and repossessions when rates go back to more normal levels.


As I have always said we will not see the bottom of this cycle until interest rates go back to normal levels, the longer they postpone that the longer they keep prices propped up and they drag out the crash.

Flight2quality

Conrad wrote: »

Prices stabilised and slowly rising as we progress through 2012.

Manufacturing growth and rapid expansion from certain arenas such as Bio - engineering.

Flight to UK safety as foreign investors such much of Europe.

UK continuing to benefit from reducing regulation, low pound and a bsuiness freindly meta landscape.

B2L proportion of market to rise to c18%.

UK exports rising as we take advantage of trade with the commonwealth and many developing nations, despite European difficulty.

Yes all fiat currencies are in a race to debase. They are all racing each other to the bottom.

But the UK pound will not always be near the front of this race, as other fiat currencies pick up spead in the race housing in the UK will look less attractive.

You could see lots of selling as other currencies get abused more than the pound sterling.

Really2

Flight2quality wrote: »

The house price bulls were saying similar then house prices fell another 10%.

Really was that back in Sept 2011?

For the Record I thought we would see 20-30% nominal falls.
All other falls would be like in previous crashes and would be in real terms up to around 2013-2015.
Similar to the 80's/90's (virtual nominal stagnation for around 4-5 years after the crash)

Now to my mind no "bear" on here was calling that in 2008, most were calling 50%+ nominal falls. You were classed as a "bull" for thinking the above.

So there seems to have been a drastic shift of where the "bears" now think falls will come from as it has shifted from nominal to real.

If you think in real terms you have to admit late 2008/2009 was the best time to buy. Virtually the nominal bottom and the lowest rates.