MSE News: Solar subsidies to be slashed under government plans

[Deleted User]

jamesd wrote: »

Check for a force majeure clause in the contract.

Wait a few years. Panel technology and pricing is developing rapidly and it's a waste of money and roof space to buy technology that will soon be old fashioned and which is more costly than it needs to be. There's no need to be an early bird for something like this.

If you're impatient, at a minimum wait say six months for the shakeout among installers that may result in a serious price war.

Technology always moves on... Fortunately I don't live forever so just make decisions and get on with life

4kwp installed tomorrow and Fri

zeupater

jamesd wrote: »

... Wait a few years. Panel technology and pricing is developing rapidly and it's a waste of money and roof space to buy technology that will soon be old fashioned and which is more costly than it needs to be. There's no need to be an early bird for something like this.

If you're impatient, at a minimum wait say six months for the shakeout among installers that may result in a serious price war.

Hi

Regarding panel technology, what's available to go on the roof today is effectively the same technology as what was available quite a few years ago .... it's not currently the technology which is improving, it's the manufacturing costs and industry margins which are decreasing .....

If everyone stopped buying and waited for prices to fall, then the industry would be in a mess and prices would almost certainly stop falling and investment into the newer technologies which are on the horizon would dry up too .....

Without early adopters of any technology allowing a market to develop then we'd probably still be in the stone age .... which is probably where many who are averse to change would like us to be anyway

The shakeout resulting in a 'serious price war' may happen, but it's more likely to be a simple downward adjustment of margins which should be easily absorbed by the distribution and installation parts of the industry, then it will be business as usual, just with more customers. Half the price, increase the sales by a factor of ten ? .... time will tell

HTH
Z

grahamc2003

jeepjunkie wrote: »

Technology always moves on... Fortunately I don't live forever so just make decisions and get on with life

4kwp installed tomorrow and Fri

Spending £12k cash in return for £1.3k pa return for 25 years doesn't seem like a 'live for today, I might get run over by a bus tomorrow' you portray above.

Living for today is spending on wine, women and song, but you're just frittering yours away on solar panels, according to George.

I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered.
George Best

jamesd

zeupater wrote: »

Regarding panel technology, what's available to go on the roof today is effectively the same technology as what was available quite a few years ago .... it's not currently the technology which is improving, it's the manufacturing costs and industry margins which are decreasing .....

Shorter term manufacturing costs are dropping, installation costs seem to be quite high still but maybe due for more competition. Longer term the panel technology should do better. Whatever the cause, though, for an individual it'll be better to at least wait for the results of the recent events.

zeupater wrote: »

If everyone stopped buying and waited for prices to fall, then the industry would be in a mess and prices would almost certainly stop falling and investment into the newer technologies which are on the horizon would dry up too .....

I wasn't writing to all the buyers in the rest of Europe, the US, China and elsewhere, just to a single individual here, who's best choice is almost certainly to wait a while.

zeupater wrote: »

Without early adopters of any technology allowing a market to develop then we'd probably still be in the stone age .... which is probably where many who are averse to change would like us to be anyway

We're well past the early adopter stage, with the US government threatening trade action against China because of alleged dumping of cheap panels there. That's a very positive sign for consumers if it continues. Still a bit early in the installer setup here, though, niche companies rather than major retailers doing that work.

I doubt that anyone simply averse to change is participating in this discussion, it would be uninteresting to them. What makes it interesting is in part the potential for the future. Particularly if costs drop to the level that the systems can generate power at less than the unsubsidised cost of say gas or coal generators. If domestic solar gets there then it should see huge uptake in popularity that would reduce power costs for all.

zeupater wrote: »

The shakeout resulting in a 'serious price war' may happen, but it's more likely to be a simple downward adjustment of margins which should be easily absorbed by the distribution and installation parts of the industry, then it will be business as usual, just with more customers. Half the price, increase the sales by a factor of ten ? .... time will tell

Downward reduction of margins is still money saved by waiting.

Once the costs, including the cost of finance, drop to below the cost of normal power that should drive rapid adoption. Shorter term than that some approach to reducing the capital costs or financing them long term would probably be helpful - something like the discussed plan to have charges added to the utility bill of the property. Then you could install and not be out of pocket on sale of the property.

jeepjunkie wrote: »

4kwp installed tomorrow and Fri

Congratulations! I'll hope that it is and stays nicely profitable for you!

zeupater

jamesd wrote: »

Shorter term manufacturing costs ...

Hi

I agree that it's better to wait, but the issue is wait for what, certainly not technology advances because there will always be something better over the horizon, so that leaves a reduction in prices ....

Consider the relative prices currently available in Germany as a goal .... will the drop in FiTs get us to those levels straight away, probably not, but they will be a lot closer .... ..... do we wait for the prices to reach current German prices, if so where will the German prices be by then and more importantly, where will the UK FiT level be at that time ?

Regarding 'Once the costs, including the cost of finance, drop to below the cost of normal power that should drive rapid adoption' .... yes that's the ultimate goal of the FiT scheme, but at around this time, or most certainly before the time that this level of pricing is reached the FiT scheme will have ended simply because the goal has been achieved .....

The government has effectively signalled that it is unwilling to allow the return from solar pv to pass a certain threshold, so it's most likely they will just be a little more reactive to global price movements and installer margins in the future ....

That really just leaves the choice .... to commit £x for y% return or wait to spend £z for y% (the same %age) return ...... or wait longer and have no subsidy at all (~ cost parity) ...

HTH
Z

Barter

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

I agree that it's better to wait, but the issue is wait for what, certainly not technology advances because there will always be something better over the horizon, so that leaves a reduction in prices ....

Consider the relative prices currently available in Germany as a goal .... will the drop in FiTs get us to those levels straight away, probably not, but they will be a lot closer .... ..... do we wait for the prices to reach current German prices, if so where will the German prices be by then and more importantly, where will the UK FiT level be at that time ?

Regarding 'Once the costs, including the cost of finance, drop to below the cost of normal power that should drive rapid adoption' .... yes that's the ultimate goal of the FiT scheme, but at around this time, or most certainly before the time that this level of pricing is reached the FiT scheme will have ended simply because the goal has been achieved .....

The government has effectively signalled that it is unwilling to allow the return from solar pv to pass a certain threshold, so it's most likely they will just be a little more reactive to global price movements and installer margins in the future ....

That really just leaves the choice .... to commit £x for y% return or wait to spend £z for y% (the same %age) return ...... or wait longer and have no subsidy at all (~ cost parity) ...

HTH
Z

But we live in an old Victorian house; solid, not cavity walls, & if we wait/can't get in before the deadline, we're scuppered, according to this copied from Martin's article:

" New energy efficiency requirement

In addition, people who install after 1 April 2012 will have to produce an energy performance certificate to qualify for the full payments.
The certificates grade homes on energy efficiency, and you’ll need to be grade C or above, which means having loft and cavity wall insulation. This will be another outlay if you don't have them ... Homes on lower grades will get less than half the standard payments."

Although we've put in all the energy saving measures we can, I don't know that we could reach that grade, so it becomes more imperative that we have a PV installation before the cut-off date, because after it, it looks like we'd be served a double whammy.

zeupater

Barter wrote: »

But we live in an old Victorian house; solid, not cavity walls, & if we wait/can't get in before the deadline, we're scuppered, according to this copied from Martin's article:

" New energy efficiency requirement

In addition, people who install after 1 April 2012 will have to produce an energy performance certificate to qualify for the full payments.
The certificates grade homes on energy efficiency, and you’ll need to be grade C or above, which means having loft and cavity wall insulation. This will be another outlay if you don't have them ... Homes on lower grades will get less than half the standard payments."

Although we've put in all the energy saving meassures we can, I don't know that we could reach that grade, so it becomes more imperative that we have a PV installation before the cut-off date, because after it, it looks like we'd be served a double whammy.

Hi

That's valid point you raise. I suppose in your case you simply wait until the installers have finished their current glut of installations, have had time to review their pricing structures and have time to go out and conduct surveys and issue quotes .....

I really don't see the rebalancing of prices to available FiT taking long as both spot & scheduled supply pricing already allow this to happen, so it's just down to wholesale & installer margin correction to where it was a couple of years ago. There are already installers offering systems supplied after the December deadline at around £2.20/Wp, remember, these are the same systems which are being supplied before the deadline for around £3/Wp .... after this step change prices will probably continue to fall at a rate similar to what was typical last year .....

Having said that, there are usually some really good offers on rolls of loft insulation at this time of year to give you a headstart if required ....

HTH
Z

Barter

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

...Having said that, there are usually some really good offers on rolls of loft insulation at this time of year to give you a headstart if required ....

HTH
Z

We're actually scheduled for an installation early December, just concerned that it'll all slip & end up not meeting the deadline, then we not only get < half the FIT, but then a lower rate than that because we cannot achieve C rate efficiency: we have a boarded out loft with as much insulation under the boards as possible. If we had cavity walls we'd be eligible for a grant to insulate them; no help with solid walls, just penalised post 12th December if we want PV's.

jimjames

Barter wrote: »

We're actually scheduled for an installation early December, just concerned that it'll all slip & end up not meeting the deadline, then we not only get < half the FIT, but then a lower rate than that because we cannot achieve C rate efficiency: we have a boarded out loft with as much insulation under the boards as possible. If we had cavity walls we'd be eligible for a grant to insulate them; no help with solid walls, just penalised post 12th December if we want PV's.

As far as I am aware the lower rate for efficiency only affects installations after next April so that won't affect you if your install is delayed slightly this year.

rogerblack

This is incorrect.
For new installs after Dec 12, the FIT rate initially starts at 43p/kWh, and then drops to the lower rate in April.