When does the housing market begin to pickup again? New year or the Sping?

carrijohnson

Yeah, the way things are at the moment who knows! It could pick up again but with the economic crisis we might be heading into another recession...

jojo1964

kk20 wrote: »

yes. They rent.

Yes, but who owns the house they rent? its not rocket science

pararct

jojo1964 wrote: »

As the population estimate of 70 million has been brought forward, the green shoots of recovery (in the housing market) could be sooner than anticipated, people have to live somewhere.

You seem to have overlooked the fact the people who make up this increase in population will need funds to buy. A large proportion of this figure will be made up of EU migrants who will need work at a time when unemployment is still increasing.

Its time to start thinking that a revival in property values in the near to medium term is simply not going to happen. All the economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation and wage levels are all going in the wrong direction to assist house buying. There is nothing in the short to medium term to suggest any of that is going to change. Indeed the £75 Billion the BOE announced it was going to print last week (or the one before) will show through in about a year in even higher inflation. Lower (than expected) Government income levels by way of tax revenue will increase the need for them to cut to assist the deficit

Plenty of activity in the property market stimulates values, subdued activity means at best the status quo at worst losses in value.

The Government keep banging on about the elixir of growth and how it is the answer to all our problems but are unable to be able to kick it off from its abysmally low levels. Our model is broken, we are unable to compete with China and the sub continent given the wage levels and living costs they have they are able to produce and sell stuff a hell of a lot cheaper than us. The Eurozone is broken many nations spend more than they are able to earn and the announcements last night have done nothing to alter this over the longer term, all they have done is bought some more time.

Am sorry and I appreciate it's not what a lot of you want to hear but any recovery to anything approaching the levels of 06/07 is probably not possible in the economic world of 2011 and onwards.

The economic indicators are there for anyone to read.It's just a question of being able to understand them.

paulmapp8306

jojo1964 wrote: »

As the population estimate of 70 million has been brought forward, the green shoots of recovery (in the housing market) could be sooner than anticipated, people have to live somewhere.

Unfortunately people cant actually BUY the house they ned to live in - most have to rent.

I have been trying to buy, but not getting a mortgage. I have spoken to 3 brokers and been told the lenders are doing everything they can not to lend. This looks set to get worse. So while there is a problem with individuals economic outlook (worried about jobs, gebneral prices rising with wages frozen/reducing etc) the biggest problem is actuall getting the lender to lend to buy.

I have a potential MIP, but not at what I wanted. It means I have a max budget to find a house that meets my actual needs. if I cant meet those needs i will have to rent. In order to meet my needs Ill be offering 10%-15% below asking price.

While sellers have a bottom line - buyers have a top line as well. Unfortunately for the sellers - the buyers have the limit that generally cant be raised, so if you want to sell you HAVE to lower.

mimimt

Around where I live in London many good properties are actually sold off books. I know this because I offered on a couple and wasn't successful. Good properties are always few and hot.

kk20

jojo1964 wrote: »

Yes, but who owns the house they rent? its not rocket science

There are always people with money. People with cash in bank accounts that are earning next to no money, so they buy property in a declining market then find tenants. Who do you think buys the properties at auctions, there are very few unsold lots around here, even in the slums. A bit of renovators magnolia and its a DSS let.

When the market picks up get shut of the tenants and cash in the higher property prices showing people what a wonderful return they have enjoyed over the last 5/10 years (sound familiar to those remembering the 80s to early 90s when interest rates were high? Then again from early 00 to late 07?)

for a 3% compounded return you would need a 70k property to sell for 100k in 10 years (assuming cgt hasnt changed madly and you are using 2 persons liabilty etc) and also assuming you make nothing from rental (but make no loss either). Will your 70k be worth 100k in 10 years? Who knows, but will your 70k stocks and shares fair as equally well? Who knows. If you want safety then get government bonds.

Arsholes are like opinions, everyone has one and they all stink.

xyellowx

i keep looking in local paper/ rightmove weekly and have found most the houses no longer on the market have been taken off rather than sold, our house is going back on the market april but thats just our preferance and the timing better as will be debt free including loans, we will be happy to take a reduced offer but only on condition we buy a house with a similar reduction so as wont have a effect on the fiqures we are playing with.

my mate paid a chunk of money last week for some advice/help hes a first time buyer with good deposit he was told to rent 12 months as rental costs could be covered by better mortgage rate savings and even lower property prices in 12 months time. they dont have the crystal ball but made it very clear to him what they think :-(

pelirocco

We have a removal company and its crazy flat out busy at the moment ( and for other companies in our area ) , we have found in previous years that during the lead up to Christmas we dont have many quite days , but these next few weeks are exceptionally busy for some reason

jojo1964

pararct wrote: »

You seem to have overlooked the fact the people who make up this increase in population will need funds to buy. A large proportion of this figure will be made up of EU migrants who will need work at a time when unemployment is still increasing.

Its time to start thinking that a revival in property values in the near to medium term is simply not going to happen. All the economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation and wage levels are all going in the wrong direction to assist house buying. There is nothing in the short to medium term to suggest any of that is going to change. Indeed the £75 Billion the BOE announced it was going to print last week (or the one before) will show through in about a year in even higher inflation. Lower (than expected) Government income levels by way of tax revenue will increase the need for them to cut to assist the deficit

Plenty of activity in the property market stimulates values, subdued activity means at best the status quo at worst losses in value.

The Government keep banging on about the elixir of growth and how it is the answer to all our problems but are unable to be able to kick it off from its abysmally low levels. Our model is broken, we are unable to compete with China and the sub continent given the wage levels and living costs they have they are able to produce and sell stuff a hell of a lot cheaper than us. The Eurozone is broken many nations spend more than they are able to earn and the announcements last night have done nothing to alter this over the longer term, all they have done is bought some more time.

Am sorry and I appreciate it's not what a lot of you want to hear but any recovery to anything approaching the levels of 06/07 is probably not possible in the economic world of 2011 and onwards.

The economic indicators are there for anyone to read.It's just a question of being able to understand them.

To be honest the price of housing doesnt bother me too much, as i like where i live, and am on an exceptionally low mortgage rate of 0.69 %, but my point is that with an increasing population, plus a lack of decent properties, prices are unlikely to change much over the short term, and are likely to rise over the medium term, i can only speak from personal experience of my area, South East, and in the industry i work in the EU migrants have nearly all managed to buy property, plus we have this week received a 3% pay rise, plus a lump sum which equates (according to management) to a 5.2% pay rise, i also understand that other areas in the UK have been hit hard by the recession, but there are still more people working now than 10 years ago, ( i believe, but cant find the figures), and as such talks of imminent crashes seem to me to be unlikely, larger population, more people working, fewer houses being built etc etc, which to me doesnt seem to be a recipe for massive price drops.

Of course i could be wrong, but personally ( and in the context of talking about house prices alone) it doesnt bother me either way.

zaksmum

moneybunny123 wrote: »

Hertfordshire, shame. If you ever fancy a move "oop north" then let me know. Good luck trying to find somewhere x

I'm looking in the north moneybunny. Merseyside to be specific. Don't suppose your house is there??