House prices need to drop 40% to be affordable discussion

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

Whoops! Looks like you were far too quick off the mark light.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=48087147&postcount=193
Ha ha. Looks like the cheap internet forum pointscoring goes to me for this one..

Ah, I see your post 190 is still incorrect and you made a new post on 193 for a different sub section of the data.

Trouble is it's still incorrect.

Detached peaked at £256,844.
Currently they are ££204,790

That makes £52,054.

Of course your probably going to come back and state that you meant peak to trough, in which case you'd be accepting that detached has risen over £10k in the last three months :roll eyes:

Jimmy_31

Pimperne1 wrote: »

That's refreshing, I thought you were going to mention that prices were crashing round your way!

Not much happens on sundays with the house prices round here.

Mondays are busy though:p

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Ah, I see your post 190 is still incorrect and you made a new post on 193 for a different sub section of the data.

Trouble is it's still incorrect.

Detached peaked at £256,844.
Currently they are ££204,790

That makes £52,054.

So not £60K then. Oof. Looks like you've snatched back a last minute victory in the cheap internet point scoring. Well done you.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Of course your probably going to come back and state that you meant peak to trough, in which case you'd be accepting that detached has risen over £10k in the last three months :roll eyes:

Nah. I'll come back and say that I eyeballed the graph and took a flyer at the amounts. £60K or £52K, doesn't really change the point I was actually making.

Jimmy_31

MrRee wrote: »

People are snapping up property where I am looking to buy .... it's really annoying.

There is no HPC, will never be any HPC, I was one of those hoping for one ...... it ain't happening folks, forget about it.

If you need a house to live (other than with Mummy and Daddy) then there are only two choices:-

1. Buy and pay less than the rental for a mortgage .... own outright after about 20 years, no more payments for life.

2. Rent and pay an ever escalating rental .... pay it forever, maybe 80 years?

A blind man on a galloping horse can see that Number 1 is the only logical intelligent way to go ..... and why prices will never really crash. Just bob up and down +/- 10% ...... not enough not to buy IMO.

Or choose secret option 3 (my personal favourite)

Watch house prices sky rocket.

Look at the price of a 1 bed flat when its time to buy.

Start laughing and say i aint f***ing payin that for a 1 bed flat.

Sit out the boom (at my mummys and various building sites around the country) and save up for when the crash comes.

Keep tabs on the crash.

Jump in when the time is right and possibly buy a house outright needing no mortgage.

The time is not yet right as house prices are still falling around here.

I hope you manage to outbid somebody in your area for a house, stick at it mate:)

julieq

DervProf wrote: »

And what did we get from "the bulls" ? House prices only go up. Prices won't fall. What we are left with is an economy that's swimming in the c**p that the bulls eventually released when the credit crunch started.

Well find one post from Hamish or I or any of the "bulls" that says that.

Or in fact from any serious commentator prior to 2008.

The fact is, and I'll phrase this very carefully, in the long term the supply and demand situation for housing makes home ownership a one way bet.

The UK housing market has NOTHING to do with the current economic situation. It never did. The US housing market caused the initial impetus, and overstretched public finances is causing the current problems. The c**p we're swimming in isn't about UK house prices in short. The first failure of the bear position was to mistake an external crisis for the bursting of a bubble in the UK which in truth was never actually a bubble. From that point they've failed consistently to call any part of what happened.

But let's go back to Geneer's point. He suggests the consensus opinion from bears was a 35% nominal drop. We have a 10-20% nominal drop. So where does the 40% to get affordable prices (i.e. the contention of this thread) which takes the nominal drop down to 50%+ come from, and what is the trend on ALL houses in Manchester Met?

Jimmy_31

RenovationMan wrote: »

Or go on about how he lives in a Northern slum. Worst.. pretent.. northerner.. ever..

Do you think im like that weirdo fella who comes on and talks about balls:rotfl:

I live on a 5hitty estate in a 5hitty town in the north of england.

I can prove this to you quite easily by telling you im having chips, pea wet an a babbys yed for my tea.

Im quite flattered that you think im a southerner;)

Jimmy_31

crash123 wrote: »

I wouldn`t mind living near Jimmy as he seems to be very sensible and comes across as a decent chap.
Every area has its good and bad bits, you just have to know how to survive in the bad ones.

Somebody who understands how it works:j

I can quite easily live a normal life surrounded by spongers, thieves and drug dealers, because as the poster said you just have to know how to survive.

Saying that though, the gobby cow at the petrol station is doin me head in lately :rotfl:

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

Actually I was a little out.

ESPC has Q4 2005 Edinburgh prices at £176,917

Whereas the very latest report has Edinburgh prices at £216,673

So prices are up around £40,000 since you joined HPC.

Congratulations

Uh oh. Looks like your moving the goal posts again.
First its december 05, then its Q4 05, then its 2001. :rotfl:

Do I need to remind you of the many many many previous discussion on this one. Again.
You remember, the discussions that usually end around here..

MrRee_2

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

Or choose secret option 3 (my personal favourite)

Watch house prices sky rocket.

Look at the price of a 1 bed flat when its time to buy.

Start laughing and say i aint f***ing payin that for a 1 bed flat.

Sit out the boom (at my mummys and various building sites around the country) and save up for when the crash comes.

Keep tabs on the crash.

Jump in when the time is right and possibly buy a house outright needing no mortgage.

The time is not yet right as house prices are still falling around here.

I hope you manage to outbid somebody in your area for a house, stick at it mate:)

Trouble is that Option 3 is just a figment of your imagination, there is no crash and won't be.

Prices will never fall to a level at a point when you will buy.

You will always live with your Mummy or buy someone else's house for them.

When you are 80 you will still be paying rent and regretting the day of the low house prices in 2011 which you let sail by!

Don't get me wrong I WANT a crash!! I really do!! I am not selling I am buying ...... but, I use my eyes to see what's going on - and round here property is selling fast.

Up North - yes, it may be having a severe correction - but here in the South we have no recession, plenty of jobs in Banking and loads'a'money!

geneer

julieq wrote: »

Well find one post from Hamish or I or any of the "bulls" that says that.

Lets assess the reality of what JulieQ is claiming here.
She is claiming that no bull ever claimed houseprices wouldn't crash.
Quite an outrageous claim by any measure.
Can't be doing much for her credibility.