House prices need to drop 40% to be affordable discussion

DervProf

julieq wrote: »

And nice analogy Graham. Why not use the truth though rather than inventing a silly story?

2004: House prices are going to fall. Sell your house and cash in by renting until prices fall.
2005: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 50% overvalued by historical levels
2006: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 60% overvalued by historical levels
2007: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 70% overvalued by historical levels
2008: TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.... Rents going to crash too.... carnage coming for BTL landlords... DRIBBLE
2009: Don't buy yet, this isnt a real rise. It will go down because of (1) cuts (2) interest rates increasing real soon to 10% (3) option ARM timebomb (insert apocalypse du jour here)
2010: Don't buy now (many bears did though, amusingly most at the peak post 2008), prices definitely going to collapse again, see 2009
2011: Next leg down starts, now with a stonking 0.3% MOM reduction. 0.3% MOM increase is, err, VI lies. Definitely prices going down in my neighbourhood. Anyway it was a CRASH, definitely we already had the CRASH. 40% falls to come because we're still 50% overvalued in historical terms, blah blah.

THAT was and is the real story of the "crash" fantasists, not some silly invention about a shipwreck. A crowd of financially illiterate numpties wrecking the lives of anyone who listened to them and giving advice most of them didn't even take themselves. With Captain Geneer going down with the proverbial ship and first mate Devon steering in ever decreasing circles. WD winners.

And what did we get from "the bulls" ? House prices only go up. Prices won't fall. What we are left with is an economy that's swimming in the c**p that the bulls eventually released when the credit crunch started.

DervProf

RenovationMan wrote: »

Well, that just about sums it up. We might as well close the 'house prices' part of the board now to save us from:

2012: Interest rates are going to rise, get ready for an avalanche of repo's.
2013: ditto
2014: ditto
2015: as above.

You forgot......

2012: Hi, I'm Rennoman, did I mention that I`ve taken advantage of low interest rates ?
2013: Ditto.
2014: Ditto.
2015: Ditto.

Assuming interest rates stay low, of course.

Hang on, why assume ? RM said they will.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

And nice analogy Graham. Why not use the truth though rather than inventing a silly story?

2004: House prices are going to fall. Sell your house and cash in by renting until prices fall.
2005: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 50% overvalued by historical levels
2006: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 60% overvalued by historical levels
2007: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 70% overvalued by historical levels
2008: TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.... Rents going to crash too.... carnage coming for BTL landlords... DRIBBLE
2009: Don't buy yet, this isnt a real rise. It will go down because of (1) cuts (2) interest rates increasing real soon to 10% (3) option ARM timebomb (insert apocalypse du jour here)
2010: Don't buy now (many bears did though, amusingly most at the peak post 2008), prices definitely going to collapse again, see 2009
2011: Next leg down starts, now with a stonking 0.3% MOM reduction. 0.3% MOM increase is, err, VI lies. Definitely prices going down in my neighbourhood. Anyway it was a CRASH, definitely we already had the CRASH. 40% falls to come because we're still 50% overvalued in historical terms, blah blah.

THAT was and is the real story of the "crash" fantasists, not some silly invention about a shipwreck. A crowd of financially illiterate numpties wrecking the lives of anyone who listened to them and giving advice most of them didn't even take themselves. With Captain Geneer going down with the proverbial ship and first mate Devon steering in ever decreasing circles. WD winners.

All that and still you managed to avoid the tricky question.

Now, you say that was and is the real story. I am not going to argue with you, as there is certainly a case, where you could pick a singular, possibly different poster from all of those years and put that case forward.

How and ever. It's not the total be all and end all, is it? There was a lot of discussion inbetween. I know this, as we were told, in numerous threads on this very site, that HPC were changing their minds. Someone on HPC changed their mind completely and bought a house apparently.

So, actually, it's not THE total story is it. It's a very VERY handpicked story.

Just as I could handpick several from this very site and make it look as if people only ever said house prices go up.

I get the feeling this isn't worth discussing with you however as these words will just blur into one single word....namely pr!ck when you read it.

geneer

julieq wrote: »

And nice analogy Graham. Why not use the truth though rather than inventing a silly story?

2004: House prices are going to fall. Sell your house and cash in by renting until prices fall.
2005: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 50% overvalued by historical levels
2006: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 60% overvalued by historical levels
2007: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 70% overvalued by historical levels
2008: TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.... Rents going to crash too.... carnage coming for BTL landlords... DRIBBLE
2009: Don't buy yet, this isnt a real rise. It will go down because of (1) cuts (2) interest rates increasing real soon to 10% (3) option ARM timebomb (insert apocalypse du jour here)
2010: Don't buy now (many bears did though, amusingly most at the peak post 2008), prices definitely going to collapse again, see 2009
2011: Next leg down starts, now with a stonking 0.3% MOM reduction. 0.3% MOM increase is, err, VI lies. Definitely prices going down in my neighbourhood. Anyway it was a CRASH, definitely we already had the CRASH. 40% falls to come because we're still 50% overvalued in historical terms, blah blah.

THAT was and is the real story of the "crash" fantasists, not some silly invention about a shipwreck. A crowd of financially illiterate numpties wrecking the lives of anyone who listened to them and giving advice most of them didn't even take themselves. With Captain Geneer going down with the proverbial ship and first mate Devon steering in ever decreasing circles. WD winners.

someone needs a nice cup of tea I think.

DervProf

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So, actually, it's not THE total story is it. It's a very VERY handpicked story.

Absolutely.

While I agree that there were/are a few extreme predictions on hpc, the basic purpose of the site was to provide a forum for those of us that dared to say that house prices might actually fall. It obviously attracted views from both extremes with bullish and bearish views. I find it quite odd that there are some posters here who seem to be obsessed with that site, and who seem to want see it's demise.

DervProf

geneer wrote: »

someone needs a nice cup of tea I think.

2 sugars please. Not too much milk. I like to taste the tea, not the udder.

geneer

julieq wrote: »

Jackasses more like, Renovation Man.

Geneer, you plank, I've agreed to call it a "crash". It's YOU who is redefining terms, but I don't give a tinker's cuss about that, because the numbers are there for all to see.

And how exactly have I gone about redefining what a crash is Julieq? Do please allow the forum to benefit from your wisdom.

julieq wrote: »

Outside, well, House Price Crash and a few newspapers, "crash" is just an emotive word for a fall or correction. It's a matter of record that prior to the "crash" the bears were expecting much larger falls as the consensus view, as (ironically) were many of the bulls.

But we are where we are now. And where are the 40% falls going to come from exactly, and what is the trend in Manchester Met according to the graph that was posted?

Its also a matter of record that many bulls were predicting soft landings every year since 2002 though isn't it? Yet you were inclined to point out the obvious truth, that this wasn't all so-called bulls at all times. You can't have it both ways Julieq.
Picking out one or two fringe posters does not a consensus make.


BTW this bear is on record predicting approx 35% real term falls from peak, with prices initially dropping off a cliff followed by years of grinding falls. Not to shabby really, when you consider the fact that Halifax is almost there right now.

geneer

DervProf wrote: »

2 sugars please. Not too much milk. I like to taste the tea, not the udder.

Soz, Comment was directed at JulieQ derv but I forgot to quote her.
She really could do with a nice cup of calming chamomile or something.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So let me get this straight...

In your view, "bears" said they would crash more than they did. Therefore the bears are massively wrong.

So does this make those who said prices wouldn't fall at all more right??

Strange analogy.

It is indeed. But as far as wrong headed intellectual self deception goes its a pretty tired and predictable psychological crutch.

Apt time to link this thread I think.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3563701=

making bearish pronouncements about any
market. Since the timing of correction is, by the very
definition of a bubble, impossible to determine, then
those who predict the timing of correction (or are
made out to have predicted the timing of correction)
and yet find that it does not materialise in an orderly
fashion will find themselves discredited – only
serving to confirm in public opinion that the
optimists (who were never expected to predict the
timing of anything, and in fact repeatedly got their
forecasts wrong) were right all along. It seems to be
in the nature of bubbles, that as mispricing
intensifies, alternative assessments of what is going
on tend to become ever muted.
Demonstrating that the market is overvalued, and
being able to predict the timing of correction, are
logically mutually exclusive – though it is often
presumed that the former is only valid if the latter is
correct

This expectation is the way matters are set

up in some areas of the media

At the close of 2003 we were told

that “The Nationwide's latest figures
appear to have proven wrong those pundits who had
predicted a sharp correction in prices during the past
year,” ignoring the fact that no ‘pundit’ had made
any such prediction, and that such predictions had

been manufactured by these areas of the media

themselves with the help of the mortgage banks, so
that they could be triumphantly knocked down later.
At the close of 2003 this created the perverse result
that prices could become more overvalued than even
the mortgage banks had predicted, and yet,
somehow, this made the overvaluation story look
less valid and the mortgage banks look more right

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

BTW this bear is on record predicting approx 35% real term falls from peak, with prices initially dropping off a cliff followed by years of grinding falls. Not to shabby really, when you consider the fact that Halifax is almost there right now.

Hmmm. I'd like to see that prediction. Care to give us a link?

BTW I see according to ESPC that Edinburgh prices are still £30k higher than when you joined HPC. Still, your landlord must be ever so happy.