House prices need to drop 40% to be affordable discussion

geneer

Lordy. Julieq is going for the "teapot method". If she decides to call it a teapot, then clearly its not a crash. Its a teapot.

How about we just use accepted terminology.
Since 2007 house prices have fallen in nominal terms by a similar amount as the 90's crash.

Its widely accepted that house prices did indeed crash in the 90's.
By simple compariosn we can reasonably conclude that they also crashed in 2008.

But the increasingly bizzare attempts to claim otherwise are somewhat tiresome.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Well we're clear now aren't we? 20% falls over 3 years is a "crash", let's agree on using that word. However it's not the consensus definition of a crash from the bears in 2004. It's a post "crash" redefinition to skirt around the inconvenient fact that they got it massively wrong.

Anyway where are the 40% falls coming from, and what's the trend in Manchester Met?

So let me get this straight...

In your view, "bears" said they would crash more than they did. Therefore the bears are massively wrong.

So does this make those who said prices wouldn't fall at all more right??

Strange analogy.

RenovationMan

Oh dear, looks like it's julieq's turn to be surrounded by the pack of hyenas.



Julie is obviously the lion in the pic. Even at those odds, my money is on her. :rotfl:

Graham_Devon

Infact, I really do quite like this analogy!

"The ships going to sink"

"Don't be so silly, the ship is not going to sink"

2 hours later...

"The ships sinking"

"Yes, but its not sunk completely, you are wrong".

3 hours later

While climbing aboard the RNLI lifeboat "I told you the ship was going to sink".

"You are wrong, I said it wasn't going to sink. It only sunk 40% before they started yo rescue it and it's now being tugged ashore, you were completely and utterly wrong you complete and utter ignorant bafoon"

"So it didn't sink then?"

"No, not at all. I was right. It only sunk 90%. You are an idiot of the highest order, conning people into thinking they were in danger, yet we are all sitting on this lifeboat and all absolutely fine apart from those few but they don't count as they didnt drown because the ship was sinking, they drowned because they let go off what they were holding on to - you are completely and utterly wrong, and I hope you are embarrased by yourself - infact, I am going to now follow you around for the next 2 years to tell you just how wrong you were- ha ha ha, you idiot".

julieq

Jackasses more like, Renovation Man.

Geneer, you plank, I've agreed to call it a "crash". It's YOU who is redefining terms, but I don't give a tinker's cuss about that, because the numbers are there for all to see.

Outside, well, House Price Crash and a few newspapers, "crash" is just an emotive word for a fall or correction. It's a matter of record that prior to the "crash" the bears were expecting much larger falls as the consensus view, as (ironically) were many of the bulls.

But we are where we are now. And where are the 40% falls going to come from exactly, and what is the trend in Manchester Met according to the graph that was posted?

DervProf

RenovationMan wrote: »

Oh dear, looks like it's julieq's turn to be surrounded by the pack of hyenas.



Julie is obviously the lion in the pic. Even at those odds, my money is on here. :rotfl:

Blimey, aren't you getting a little adventurous these days ? What happend to the vanishing clowns, BTW ?

RenovationMan

julieq wrote: »

Jackasses more like, Renovation Man.

geneer, dervprof and graham devon, on just hearing the news that a single mum was repossessed:

DervProf

:rotfl:^

Lol !

Now that's a bit better. Less "pathetic" than your recent attempts.

Seriously, that's made me laugh a little. Brightened up the first dark evening of the winter months.

julieq

And nice analogy Graham. Why not use the truth though rather than inventing a silly story?

2004: House prices are going to fall. Sell your house and cash in by renting until prices fall.
2005: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 50% overvalued by historical levels
2006: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 60% overvalued by historical levels
2007: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 70% overvalued by historical levels
2008: TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.... Rents going to crash too.... carnage coming for BTL landlords... DRIBBLE
2009: Don't buy yet, this isnt a real rise. It will go down because of (1) cuts (2) interest rates increasing real soon to 10% (3) option ARM timebomb (insert apocalypse du jour here)
2010: Don't buy now (many bears did though, amusingly most at the peak post 2008), prices definitely going to collapse again, see 2009
2011: Next leg down starts, now with a stonking 0.3% MOM reduction. 0.3% MOM increase is, err, VI lies. Definitely prices going down in my neighbourhood. Anyway it was a CRASH, definitely we already had the CRASH. 40% falls to come because we're still 50% overvalued in historical terms, blah blah.

THAT was and is the real story of the "crash" fantasists, not some silly invention about a shipwreck. A crowd of financially illiterate numpties wrecking the lives of anyone who listened to them and giving advice most of them didn't even take themselves. With Captain Geneer going down with the proverbial ship and first mate Devon steering in ever decreasing circles. WD winners.

RenovationMan

julieq wrote: »

And nice analogy Graham. Why not use the truth though rather than inventing a silly story?

2004: House prices are going to fall. Sell your house and cash in by renting until prices fall.
2005: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 50% overvalued by historical levels
2006: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 60% overvalued by historical levels
2007: Prices definitely going to fall now, don't worry. They're 70% overvalued by historical levels
2008: TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.... Rents going to crash too.... carnage coming for BTL landlords... DRIBBLE
2009: Don't buy yet, this isnt a real rise. It will go down because of (1) cuts (2) interest rates increasing real soon to 10% (3) option ARM timebomb (insert apocalypse du jour here)
2010: Don't buy now (many bears did though, amusingly most at the peak post 2008), prices definitely going to collapse again, see 2009
2011: Next leg down starts, now with a stonking 0.3% MOM reduction. 0.3% MOM increase is, err, VI lies. Definitely prices going down in my neighbourhood. Anyway it was a CRASH, definitely we already had the CRASH. 40% falls to come because we're still 50% overvalued in historical terms, blah blah.

THAT was and is the real story of the "crash" fantasists, not some silly invention about a shipwreck. A crowd of financially illiterate numpties wrecking the lives of anyone who listened to them and giving advice most of them didn't even take themselves. With Captain Geneer going down with the proverbial ship and first mate Devon steering in ever decreasing circles. WD winners.

Well, that just about sums it up. We might as well close the 'house prices' part of the board now to save us from:

2012: Interest rates are going to rise, get ready for an avalanche of repo's.
2013: ditto
2014: ditto
2015: as above.