Wrong type of weather knocks high street

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I know you'll probably not believe this either, but in 2005 everyone in retail knew about weather impacts. They just didn't have the same abilities as today to quantify the impact.

Technology has moved on a massive amount in the last 6 years.

A friend of mine, guy I used to work with, is a senior manager for one of the large supermarket chains. In 2005 he didn't get daily weather forecasts and associated projected sales volumes broken down by category on a city by city basis. Today he does. I've seen them, and it's absolutely amazing stuff. The orders for one store can be radically different to another store just 30 miles away, purely based on weather.

The thing is though, if the weather report is dramatically wrong, which it can be, his stores can be out by several million quid over a 3 day period due to supply chain lag and needing to sell off cheap or waste a lot of products with short shelf lives.

And that's just one supermarket chain's stores in one small corner of the country.

Multiply that effect over an entire economy and it's HUGE.

So it's not that weather is being blamed more today, it's that retailers now have the ability to accurately monitor the exact impact weather has, which they just didn't have to anywhere near the same degree even 6 years ago.

I fear you miss the point of the article. I am well aware of the ordering system for the likes of Tesco's, who will order in 1m extra lettuce, and bump up the salad and condiments ordering if the weather is forecast to be salad weather, and reduce their ordering of casserole beef etc.

This isn't about how retailers order & stock their items. You are only talking about the major major retailers here.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I fear you miss the point of the article.

No, I think I got the point just fine.

"Rather than stock up on cardigans and coats, consumers largely avoided the High Street in favour of a final few days of sun,"

This isn't about how retailers order & stock their items..

No Graham, it's about the effect unusual weather has on shopping patterns, particularly when the shops are full of stuff nobody wants to buy because it's too hot.

Basic common sense will tell you most people aren't going to be shopping for winter coats and gloves when it's 25c outside.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, I think I got the point just fine.

"Rather than stock up on cardigans and coats, consumers largely avoided the High Street in favour of a final few days of sun,"



No Graham, it's about the effect unusual weather has on shopping patterns, particularly when the shops are full of stuff nobody wants to buy because it's too hot.

Basic common sense will tell you most people aren't going to be shopping for winter coats and gloves when it's 25c outside.

If you say so Hamish.

Can you tell me when it was unseasonably hot in September? How many days?

2 days all it takes to knock the high street back because people aint buying a new coat?

Come off it. It's masking the problem.

Really2

What I don't get is why the people moan about seasonal changes causing an effect are the same people who will say "what happend to the seasonal bounce."

Everything we buy and sell is effected by buying cycles, these can be effected by weather.

So when the same people comeback next month if it rises they will be the first to say well that was role over from the month before.

They wont be saying it's because, confidence boom etc.

I went in to TX max The Saturday before last, Last wednesday and last saturday.
They were nearly out of coats in my size on saturday but they had loads a few days before and the week before?

But I will realistically look at this as weather now getting colder than the great coat boom of October 2011.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you say so Hamish.

Can you tell me when it was unseasonably hot in September? How many days?

2 days all it takes to knock the high street back because people aint buying a new coat?

Come off it. It's masking the problem.

Dry perhaps? rain is included in weather also.

Averaged across England and Wales there was 57mm of rain through September, which is only 79% of the average

Here are some clowns saying wheat production is down due to the spring.
http://www.internationalsupermarketnews.com/news/4921
Next they will be blaming it costing more on the weather also!

Mallotum_X

Surely then the drop could only be blamed on poor weather forecasts, rather than the weather itself.

And to claim we had a hot September doesnt make any sense, as we didnt? the sunny period was maybe a day or so at the end of September but mostly October - all those October records being broken. Why a hot period in October affects September doesnt make any sense. On top of which we had plenty of people buying different things, beer, BBQ's, days out etc instead of rain coats or whatever.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Dry perhaps? rain is included in weather also.

Maybe they should have said that then, instead of making out it was unseasonably hot.

As put simply. It wasn't, and therefore it makes the article look stupid. it's bad enough blaming the weather, but using weather that didn't happen is a step too far.

Just wanted to say....thats pretty desperate suggesting they might have meant dry....as to try and suggest because we had less rain, less were shopping in the high street is up there amongst the absolute gems.

"Shops see fall in profits, as shoppers decide it's not moist enough to shop".

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Surely then the drop could only be blamed on poor weather forecasts, rather than the weather itself.

And to claim we had a hot September doesnt make any sense, as we didnt? the sunny period was maybe a day or so at the end of September but mostly October - all those October records being broken. Why a hot period in October affects September doesnt make any sense. On top of which we had plenty of people buying different things, beer, BBQ's, days out etc instead of rain coats or whatever.

From what I remember it is usually warmer at the start and gets colder at the end. So perhaps the part where people historically start spending for winter was record breaking.

DervProf

Mallotum_X wrote: »

And to claim we had a hot September doesnt make any sense, as we didnt? the sunny period was maybe a day or so at the end of September but mostly October - all those October records being broken. Why a hot period in October affects September doesnt make any sense. On top of which we had plenty of people buying different things, beer, BBQ's, days out etc instead of rain coats or whatever.

Exactly what I was thinking. Wasn't it a day or two at the end of September that were nice, then October started with even warmer weather ?

Good point about people buying different things. I'd also point out that nice weather is just as likely to encourage people to leave their homes and go shopping, as it would make them stay at home in the garden. Bad weather is likely to encourage people to stay in and do any shopping online, I would have thought.

I can see that warm weather might have an adverse effect on retail sales (in some sectors), but to use it as a reason for September's poor performance is clutching at straws.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Maybe they should have said that then, instead of making out it was unseasonably hot.

It was at the end, If you usually buy your winter clothes at the end of sept when it is usually about 13C would you still buy them when it is 30C

There is a big shift in temp from the start of sept to the end usualy.

So it is a bit false for anyone to make out the end was unseasonally hot.

The start of Oct saw record amounts coming out of cash machines, so it looks likely that weather had an influence on spending patterns.