It's quite remarkable how attitudes have changed

Pimperne1

Over the past few years attitudes seem to have changed considerably as regards house prices.

Back in 2005 we had the Housepricecrash doomsters warning of housing Armageddon and this continued up until about 2009.

When prices started to rise again the chorus of doomsters changed from "Prices are going to drop by up to 50%" to "The Government bailed you out but prices are still going to go down considerably". Now we have "Well prices are stagnant but that is in effect a drop in "real" prices".

If I had joined HPC in say, Dec 2005, when the average price was £157,387 and said that in 2011 the average price would be £166,764 I would have been laughed off the forum (and banned).

Its interesting to me now to see the most ardent bears changing their tune and accepting that they now need to buy as prices are not going anywhere fast.

Graham_Devon

Pimperne1 wrote: »

If I had joined HPC in say, Dec 2005, when the average price was £157,387 and said that in 2011 the average price would be £166,764 I would have been laughed off the forum (and banned).

If I'd suggested that to you or Hamish in 2005 it would have got the same response.

What's your point? Bulls correct again? Something like that?

Pimperne1

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If I'd suggested that to you or Hamish in 2005 it would have got the same response.

What's your point? Bulls correct again? Something like that?

Not really sure what I would have said in 2005 as I wasn't involved in any HPC debate. What I can say is that I joined the HPC website in June 07 when the average price was £165,035 and I was predicting a soft landing. That doesn't look like too bad a prediction now.

Graham_Devon

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Not really sure what I would have said in 2005 as I wasn't involved in any HPC debate.

So how do you know what "they" would have said?

This is a little tricky isn't it.

Pimperne1

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So how do you know what "they" would have said?

This is a little tricky isn't it.

Just need to look at the quotes from 2005.

Sibley

The HPC dream is over. They know it as well.

Pimperne1

Herewith an example. Van the Man:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=372&st=0

Pimperne1

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Herewith an example. Van the Man:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=372&st=0

This bit is great from his post:

"Now, they've always generally seen me as a pretty canny operator with my head screwed on very tightly indeed; who's been able to read between the lines, as it were. I told them all: "sell your house. There's a crash coming." - but with the subtext of your house is also your home (so don't just do it for the money) etc. Whenever friends ask me why I sold, I flippantly say to them "I wish there was some more noble reason, but I did it for the money!". Being part of the herd of course, they can't see how I have made money by falling off the property ladder, so see me as some sort of crazed and demented person who has chosen to pay off someone else's mortgage for a few years.


How do I feel about it? To be very honest, I feel a slight sense of intellectual superiority. Let me say that I am personally more motivated by money than almost everyone else I personally know. Maybe not the thought of being rich as such (winning the lottery doesn't appeal to me; in fact, I've never even played it), but the thought that I have managed to earn something by being one step ahead of the herd is very appealing. If I manage to stay one step ahead of the herd, I think I'll do well no matter what life throws at me. Be a wage slave for the next 30 years? - Not for me, thanks".

Conrad

Those with a strong conviction either way are likely to be wrong as set out in a brilliant new book called Future Babble which forensically demonstrates how most (99%) expert predictions end up wrong, and in most cases the exact opposite of thier predictions actually comes to pass. The correalation between an experts strength of conviction and her likelyhood of being wrong is indisputable. Those experts with the most rigid convivtions are known as hedgehogs, where as those with a looser world view, known as Foxes, tend to make much better predictions.


Similarly it is well known in Pyschology that people with strong convictions are those that are most prone to filter evidence, dismissing any contrary evidence yet taking note of evidence that suits thier world view. This is a case of finding evidence to suit the view rather than comming to a view on examination of evidence.

The more strident and certain the expert, the more likely she will be wrong as EVERY study has shown. It is also known that such people will almost never admit or even realise they were wrong as they will recall thier predictions in a different way to those they actually made.

Paul Erhart wrote Famine 1975, and followed up with several similarly toned books where he was certain of world famine and resultant civil war in America. Despite being wrong over and again he still wont admit it, and comes back with the inevitable 'I was a little out on timing', thus he will go to his grave never having confronted the plain truth he was wrong.

You will find many forum extremists are much like Mr Erhart. For them property and western society will always be on the brink.


Did you know since 1924 there have been over 100 expert predictions that we had reached peak oil. Jimmy Carter made his famous gloomy address in 1977, urged on by experts that peak oil was reached and prices would soon be $200 per barrel and rising to never fall again. What happened.. the exact opposite.

When you read posters on here with very strong economic prediction convictions, remember that history shows they will almost certainly be wrong.

IronWolf

Conrad wrote: »

Those with a strong conviction either way are likely to be wrong as set out in a brilliant new book called Future Babble which forensically demonstrates how most (99%) expert predictions end up wrong, and in most cases the exact opposite of thier predictions actually comes to pass. The correalation between an experts strength of conviction and her likelyhood of being wrong is indisputable. Those experts with the most rigid convivtions are known as hedgehogs, where as those with a looser world view, known as Foxes, tend to make much better predictions.


Similarly it is well known in Pyschology that people with strong convictions are those that are most prone to filter evidence, dismissing any contrary evidence yet taking note of evidence that suits thier world view. This is a case of finding evidence to suit the view rather than comming to a view on examination of evidence.

The more strident and certain the expert, the more likely she will be wrong as EVERY study has shown. It is also known that such people will almost never admit or even realise they were wrong as they will recall thier predictions in a different way to those they actually made.

Paul Erhart wrote Famine 1975, and followed up with several similarly toned books where he was certain of world famine and resultant civil war in America. Despite being wrong over and again he still wont admit it, and comes back with the inevitable 'I was a little out on timing', thus he will go to his grave never having confronted the plain truth he was wrong.

You will find many forum extremists are much like Mr Erhart. For them property and western society will always be on the brink.


Did you know since 1924 there have been over 100 expert predictions that we had reached peak oil. Jimmy Carter made his famous gloomy address in 1977, urged on by experts that peak oil was reached and prices would soon be $200 per barrel and rising to never fall again. What happened.. the exact opposite.

When you read posters on here with very strong economic prediction convictions, remember that history shows they will almost certainly be wrong.

Good post

Can we stop with the obsession over HPC now? Noone cares about your pathetic arguments.

StevieJ

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Herewith an example. Van the Man:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=372&st=0

Fair comment

By the way, the Northern Rock Guernsey still offers 5.5% fixed for one year. They must have some funds left they bought earlier this year in the swaps market. If I were you, I would rush some money there (but not all of it, you never know what will happen to outfits like NR).