Land Registry Prediction

geneer

robmatic wrote: »

Errm, you thought it was more than 5%?

Well actually I thought Hamishes selected value was bobbins, which clearly it was.

I also thought that it wouldn't be much under 5%, cos you weren't all that keen on revealing it, and I was right.

geneer

robmatic wrote: »

So, let me see if I can follow your logic:

Let me see if I can spot the point where you decided to drop your "most people pay less than typical rates" angle.

Ah yes. Immediately after it was proven wrong.
A bigger man would admit his error.

robmatic wrote: »

So, let me see if I can follow your logic:
Current rates are an aberration (clearly)

Yes. I have reitterated at, oh, about 10 times now.

robmatic wrote: »

They will not occur for any sort of sustained period

Correct.

robmatic wrote: »

Instead, the typical mortgage rate will shortly revert to something in the region of 7.5%

I've no idea what they will revert to, or how they will move over the next couple of decades. Who does?

But as a general rule it seems reasonable to take an average of the last decade or so (excluding the emergency base rates) and apply it to the next couple of decades.
I'm not sure why you keep coming back to 7.5% Rob.
I have admitted this was incorrect and accepted the 6.58% you calculated as being more reasonable.
I have in fact confirmed this a number of times to you now.
Has it been difficult to grasp?

robmatic wrote: »

Probably higher, as the current rate will obviously drag down the long term average if it continues over the coming months

But not the coming decades right.

robmatic wrote: »

However, there can be no advantage to purchasing now and securing a long term fix of, say, 4% for 7 years

Who mentioned buying now?

robmatic

geneer wrote: »

Well actually I thought Hamishes selected value was bobbins, which clearly it was.

I also thought that it wouldn't be much under 5%, cos you weren't all that keen on revealing it, and I was right.

geneer wrote: »

Sadly you have nothing to say about Hamishes selected 5% mortgage rates. Which, it transpires, is lower than the typical base rate for the last 11 years.
Which doesn't do much for your credibility.

When it's actually 3.68% over the last 11 years...

geneer

robmatic wrote: »

When it's actually 3.68% over the last 11 years...

But I have been very, very clear that the current emergency base rates are and should be excluded.

If this is the kind of pedantic sniping you're now limited too, this discussion does seem to be drawing to a close.