We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.

This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.

Debate House Prices


In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!

Land Registry Prediction

1679111214

Comments

  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    wotsthat wrote: »
    No problem. If you do ever want any help with maths before embarking on a plan requiring some maths just PM me.

    Keep waiting BTW.


    That’s alright thanks. Calculations I can handle.
    Sadly, when it comes to credible analysis, you’ve demonstrated that you don’t have the chops for it.

    Who said I'm waiting. :rotfl:
  • wotsthat
    wotsthat Posts: 11,325 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    That’s alright thanks. Calculations I can handle.
    Sadly, when it comes to credible analysis, you’ve demonstrated that you don’t have the chops for it.

    Who said I'm waiting. :rotfl:

    As long as the calculations aren't percentage based you might be ok.

    Using an interest rate of 7.5% in your calculations demonstrates that credible analysis isn't part of your skill set either.

    Just trying to help. TBH it might end up better for your well-being if you keep getting the calculations wrong anyway.
  • undetterred
    undetterred Posts: 635 Forumite
    500 Posts
    wotsthat wrote: »
    As long as the calculations aren't percentage based you might be ok.

    Using an interest rate of 7.5% in your calculations demonstrates that credible analysis isn't part of your skill set either.

    Just trying to help. TBH it might end up better for your well-being if you keep getting the calculations wrong anyway.

    Perhaps if you used apples,geneer would understand it better

    :rotfl:https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3391286
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    wotsthat wrote: »
    As long as the calculations aren't percentage based you might be ok.

    Nah. Still fine ta.

    wotsthat wrote: »

    Using an interest rate of 7.5% in your calculations demonstrates that credible analysis isn't part of your skill set either.

    More credible than 5%.
    And looking back over the last 11 years, the average for typical mortgage rates does look to be about 7.5%.

    wotsthat wrote: »

    Just trying to help. TBH it might end up better for your well-being if you keep getting the calculations wrong anyway.

    You will of course be the first I will come to if I run short of meaningless banal comebacks. With you being such an expert.

    For sensible analysis, not so much. But thanks for offering.
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    Perhaps if you used apples,geneer would understand it better

    :rotfl:https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/3391286


    :rotfl: If only it helped the bulls understand elementary objective comparisons better.
    Sadly, no such luck.
  • robmatic
    robmatic Posts: 1,217 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    Maths is fine.
    Would it surprise you to know that interest rates have not always been 4%, and will not be forever more.

    Really? So if someone delays purchase for a few years there is a chance that mortgage rates could be a couple of hundred basis points higher when they come to buy? You know, that could have an effect on mortgage affordability for them.
    geneer wrote: »

    Of course it won't. You're stuck with it.
    Which is pretty much why I was highlighting the benefits of, y'know, waiting until after the crash to buy. There is clearly a benefit in doing so, even though you are loathe to admit it.

    I have repeatedly said that timing the market well is a good thing, it's just unfortunate that it's much easier to do in hindsight.

    Meanwhile, time passes, and a mortgage debt magically disappears as it is inflated away and repayments are made.
    geneer wrote: »

    And?

    Of course the smallest property will be much cheaper now than it was.

    We've done the sums on this rob. The benefits are obvious.

    You've done some sums, using a really weird arbitrary assumption about interest rates, and neglecting to take into account important factors such as inflation. You've also demonstrated that you don't really understand why people buy a property and what they hope to achieve by doing so.

    geneer wrote: »
    So you essentially would have recommended someone to buy in august 2007.
    The significant flaws in this advice is rather obvious.

    Personally, I was holding off back then, but I think the benefit to me of doing so has proven to be less clearcut than your simplistic analysis would suggest. I certainly wouldn't look down on someone who bought at peak for the reasons I set out in my previous post.
    geneer wrote: »

    We've done the sums on this rob. The benefits are obvious.

    I guess we don't have to guess when you bought eh.

    For what it's worth, I bought last year. I live in a nice central part of Edinburgh (EH3) and my net mortgage cost is less than zero. It's working out pretty well for me so far, and will continue to do so whether house prices rise or fall.
  • robmatic
    robmatic Posts: 1,217 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    More credible than 5%.
    And looking back over the last 11 years, the average for typical mortgage rates does look to be about 7.5%.

    Really? SVRs may have been up there for a little while but they are hardly the typical mortgage rate.
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    robmatic wrote: »
    Really? SVRs may have been up there for a little while but they are hardly the typical mortgage rate.


    For much of the last 11 years base rates have been higher than, or just under 5%.
  • robmatic
    robmatic Posts: 1,217 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    For much of the last 11 years base rates have been higher than, or just under 5%.

    And an SVR would be a couple of hundred basis points above that. Trackers and fixes were much cheaper though.
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    robmatic wrote: »
    Really? So if someone delays purchase for a few years there is a chance that mortgage rates could be a couple of hundred basis points higher when they come to buy? You know, that could have an effect on mortgage affordability for them.

    I have repeatedly said that timing the market well is a good thing, it's just unfortunate that it's much easier to do in hindsight.

    Meanwhile, time passes, and a mortgage debt magically disappears as it is inflated away and repayments are made.

    You appear to be stuck in some strange recursive loop.
    I do wonder how many times you can say exactly the same thing.

    robmatic wrote: »



    You've done some sums, using a really weird arbitrary assumption about interest rates, and neglecting to take into account important factors such as inflation. You've also demonstrated that you don't really understand why people buy a property and what they hope to achieve by doing so.

    Well actually I've done is, using numbers which seem reasonable, is support the point I was making.

    Even hamish, with his less likely numbers (for reasons already given) managed to support my point.

    robmatic wrote: »
    R



    Personally, I was holding off back then, but I think the benefit to me of doing so has proven to be less clearcut than your simplistic analysis would suggest.

    Does that mean you Prefer Hamishes simplistic analysis.
    Or, are you going by a "gut feeling".

    robmatic wrote: »
    R



    I certainly wouldn't look down on someone who bought at peak for the reasons I set out in my previous post.




    I certainly wouldn't either. Primarily because its their own look in and they can do what they want. I will however look down on someone who, even in the wake of an significant crash still insists that it would be far better to have bought late 2007.

    robmatic wrote: »
    R



    For what it's worth, I bought last year. I live in a nice central part of Edinburgh (EH3) and my net mortgage cost is less than zero. It's working out pretty well for me so far, and will continue to do so whether house prices rise or fall.

    Not that I'm all that interesting in your own personal position, but what you appear to be telling us is that you waited until after the bulk of the crash to buy.

    Sigh.
This discussion has been closed.
Meet your Ambassadors

🚀 Getting Started

Hi new member!

Our Getting Started Guide will help you get the most out of the Forum

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 352.2K Banking & Borrowing
  • 253.6K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 454.3K Spending & Discounts
  • 245.3K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 601K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 177.5K Life & Family
  • 259.1K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 16K Discuss & Feedback
  • 37.7K Read-Only Boards

Is this how you want to be seen?

We see you are using a default avatar. It takes only a few seconds to pick a picture.