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Land Registry Prediction
Comments
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So, basically, do you actually know what you're talking about when it comes to mortgages?
You seem to think SVR isn't a reasonable benchmark of assessing mortgages, though you are unwilling to offer an alternative.
I suggest you're now just clutching at straws.
Fixed rates, such as they are, typically last 2 years, which mean they reset. Meaning the SVR remains a good long term benchmark.0 -
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Because it would be somewhat unrealistic to project what are indeed emergency rates across the next 20 to 25 years.
...and you think 7.5% might be a realistic rate to project for the next 20 - 25 years? Oh dear.
...and don't forget your 7.5% figure started as your guess at historical rates for the last 11 years. When this was shown to be way out you turned it into a projection.
As for 2005 - why not pick any year and I'll do the calculations. The longer someone stays out of the market the worse it looks.
What about 2002 - didn't JD STR then? Now they'd look like scary figures but if you delude yourself that you would have been paying 7.5% on a mortgage instead it might take some of the sting out.0 -
You seem to think SVR isn't a reasonable benchmark of assessing mortgages, though you are unwilling to offer an alternative.
I suggest you're now just clutching at straws.
Fixed rates, such as they are, typically last 2 years, which mean they reset. Meaning the SVR remains a good long term benchmark.
Trackers, discount trackers and fixes have been the mortgage products that people have used in recent memory... not SVRs.
How does a discount tracker compare to an SVR?
How often have people taken out trackers at base rate + 2.0% or more? Is that a typical margin?0 -
You appear to be confused.
I believe we've confirmed 6.54% as a more accurate average for SVR.
Which is only 11.2 years of rent rather than 12. :rotfl:
I've confirmed 6.54% as the average SVR in the 7 years leading up to the credit crunch.
You have not confirmed this as a typical mortgage rate for that period.
You have not determined that this is a sensible typical mortgage rate for the next 5 years (I should perhaps point out that BBR is currently 0.5%).0 -
Sadly you have nothing to say about Hamishes selected 5% mortgage rates. Which, it transpires, is lower than the typical base rate for the last 11 years.
Which doesn't do much for your credibility.
Errm, what is the typical base rate for the last 11 years?
Clue: you can determine it from that HPC table...
Come on geneer, you can do this... you're good at maths!
Clue number 2: it's a number less than 5...0 -
...and you think 7.5% might be a realistic rate to project for the next 20 - 25 years? Oh dear.
Did you "miss" the post directly above yours then?
Oh dear.As for 2005 - why not pick any year and I'll do the calculations. The longer someone stays out of the market the worse it looks.
What about 2002 - didn't JD STR then? Now they'd look like scary figures but if you delude yourself that you would have been paying 7.5% on a mortgage instead it might take some of the sting out.
Who mentioned 2005. Who mentioned 2002? You're flailing wotsthat.
In principle though, 11 years of rent would readily see the "average" buyer back to 2005.
The "average" 2002 would probably break even.0 -
I've confirmed 6.54% as the average SVR in the 7 years leading up to the credit crunch.
Correct.
The emergency rates have been excluded for the reasons previously stated.You have not confirmed this as a typical mortgage rate for that period.
You have not confirmed that it isn't.
Though I have pointed out the Fixed rates etc do reset, so if thats your angle, you are incorrect.You have not determined that this is a sensible typical mortgage rate for the next 5 years (I should perhaps point out that BBR is currently 0.5%).
My calculation is for the duration of the mortgage. Approx 25 years. It is quite feasible that the typical mortgage rates will exceed 6.54% by a significant margin over that time.
Clearly you're clutching at straws now.0 -
Come on geneer, you can do this... you're good at maths!
Clue number 2: it's a number less than 5...
Naturally Rob, we would want to exclude the recent emergency rates in this case too.
But why don't you enlighted us as to why 5% is a much more typical rate when your own calculations have already demonstrated something much higher?
Though again, even at the nonsensical 5% value, your "average" buyer still gets 5 years rent to play with.0 -
Correct.
The emergency rates have been excluded for the reasons previously stated.
What are these reasons?You have not confirmed that it isn't.
Though I have pointed out the Fixed rates etc do reset, so if thats your angle, you are incorrect.
That's not my angle. My angle is that an SVR is not the rate that a mortgage holder will typically pay.
My calculation is for the duration of the mortgage. Approx 25 years. It is quite feasible that the typical mortgage rates will exceed 6.54% by a significant margin over that time.
Clearly you're clutching at straws now.
It's similarly feasible that they will remain below that figure.0
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