We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.
This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.
Debate House Prices
In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
Land Registry Prediction
Comments
-
Naturally Rob, we would want to exclude the recent emergency rates in this case too.
But why don't you enlighted us as to why 5% is a much more typical rate when your own calculations have already demonstrated something much higher?
Though again, even at the nonsensical 5% value, your "average" buyer still gets 5 years rent to play with.
You can exclude them if you like, it's still a number less than 5.
What nonsense, eh!?0 -
Why do I consider l the emergency "whoops lets stop western capitalist system collapsing" base rates as atypical?What are these reasons?
The clue is in the question.
And advised previously.What are these reasons?
That's not my angle. My angle is that an SVR is not the rate that a mortgage holder will typically pay.
You assert that an average SVR is not "typical".
Yet you have been unable to explain or support this assertion.
I have highlighted that fixed rates and such are over a limited duration, and so will regularly revert back, hence it is reasonable to conclude that the average SVR remains a sound indicator of whats typical.
It's similarly feasible that they will remain below that figure.
It really, really isn't.0 -
Whats the number then Rob?
Your wriggling refusal to provide the answer suggests it might well be 4.999.:rotfl:
There's no wriggling, just pedagogy. Given that you consider a typical mortgage rate over the last 11 years to have been 7.5%, and you think the idea of base rate being below 5% nonsensical (when in fact it's averaged 3.68% since August 2000, and 4.69% between then and August 2008), it might be better for all concerned if you explored your supporting 'evidence' yourself.0 -
Why do I consider l the emergency "whoops lets stop western capitalist system collapsing" base rates as atypical?
The clue is in the question.
And advised previously.
Unless you are wildly optimistic about our economy, they will probably remain typical for the next few years. Or perhaps they will shoot back up to 5% next month, in one mighty leap. You tell me which is more likely.You assert that an average SVR is not "typical".
Yet you have been unable to explain or support this assertion.
I have highlighted that fixed rates and such are over a limited duration, and so will regularly revert back, hence it is reasonable to conclude that the average SVR remains a sound indicator of whats typical.
Good grief. Ask anybody taking out a mortgage! Or go to http://www.moneysupermarket.com/mortgages/ and find me an SVR that I can take out.It really, really isn't.
Is it more or less feasible in your eyes as BBR being as low as 5% over the last 11 years, or a typical mortgage rate being less than 7.5% over the same period? You're good with numbers, so I'll trust your analysis on this one.0 -
Unless you are wildly optimistic about our economy, they will probably remain typical for the next few years. Or perhaps they will shoot back up to 5% next month, in one mighty leap. You tell me which is more likely.
Is that the only two choices then? :rotfl:
As repeatedly stated, I'm more interested in the duration of the mortgage term.Ask anybody taking out a mortgage! Or go to http://www.moneysupermarket.com/mortgages/ and find me an SVR that I can take out.
You're right of course.
The HPC table suggests 2.5% SVR is typical at the moment.
Whilst a quick perusal of the moneysupermarket best buys suggests that the typical rates at the moment, be they SVR, Fixed or tracker are in fact a good bit higher.
Thanks for highlighting this Robmatic.
Is it more or less feasible in your eyes as BBR being as low as 5% over the last 11 years
Average base rate of 4.69 wasn't it. Making old Hamishes typical mortgage rate of 5% a bit of a nonsense. Clearly.
Can't see why you won't just admit this.
or a typical mortgage rate being less than 7.5% over the same period?
Whilst 7.5% is infinitely more credible than Hamishes guesstimate, we have already agreed on 6.54% as being more realistic.
See Rob, I'm happy to take new and compelling evidence on board and admit my errors. Can't see why you won't.
That said, based on our little look at moneysupermarket it seems as if 6.54 might be underegging it a little.
But thats ok, I'm happy to stick with this for what is, after all, a very general assesment.
And generally, so long as someone hasn't waited 11 to 12 years for the crash, they're quids in.
0 -
It seems Hamish has ghosted out again.
Say what you like about the lad, but he knows when its better to tuck tail and pretend the discussion never happened.0 -
Why do I consider l the emergency "whoops lets stop western capitalist system collapsing" base rates as atypical?
The clue is in the question.
And advised previously.
So, let me see if I can follow your logic:
Current rates are an aberration (clearly)
They will not occur for any sort of sustained period
Instead, the typical mortgage rate will shortly revert to something in the region of 7.5%
Probably higher, as the current rate will obviously drag down the long term average if it continues over the coming months
However, there can be no advantage to purchasing now and securing a long term fix of, say, 4% for 7 years
Is that about right?0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 352.3K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.7K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 454.4K Spending & Discounts
- 245.3K Work, Benefits & Business
- 601.1K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.6K Life & Family
- 259.2K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.7K Read-Only Boards