Gold price to go steady, dips imminent?

lvader

ed123 wrote: »

.....I assume the supply of physical gold is tightly controlled.....to what degree does this affect the spot price?

What makes you think it's tightly controlled? In what way?

sabretoothtigger

If it is a blow off, I wouldn't look for it being terminal

Your talking about a parabolic move there, a bit like Silver did around easter except silver fell back and recovered for longer term gains.
Short term I agree, it does look like it

I dont agree long term because the recent high was in line with 2009 gains on a trend. We really need much higher prices also we have not yet accounted for lost value in the Dollar. If dollar halves and gold doubles, is the price too expensive now. Really it hasnt changed in that case, its not due to do anything especially






In 2009 gold did peak (far left on this graph is 2009), we had Brown Obama and all the political superheroes save the world. By creating weak currency which saved gold from falling too far if anything but short term it did fall about 20%

So now this latest price has shifted back to full speed, back to top gear and its in line with 2009 again. That doesnt make it anywhere near dangerously overpriced


So maybe we get another bail out, I dont know. A fall of 20% I guess would also be a repeat.
But to compare it to 1980's will not be correct as they cannot raise Dollar interest rates to 15%.
They just said they wont raise rates till 2013, a kind of saving the world move which is enough to take pressure off and actually again just like 2009 helps gold prices to stay high


All of the above I considered whether to sell gold but I cant be bothered. I'd lose the spread at least. Its a decent argument but its not 'the' top or even close. Why risk being wrong short term

I just cashed in a FTSE short XUKS and bought
VED metals miner
CNR Gold explorer
EMED Copper explorer
HOC Silver miner.
All too cheap considering we just secured the long term weakness of currency and promoted the old monetary metals of gold silver copper to even greater importance

blackrat779

Guys, On the subject of gold, I have some charting software which is great for shares. Is there anyway of importing the gold and silver prices? The software will automatically load from Yahoo or Google finance but also has a manual load option.
You will have guessed that I am new to this so any help is welcome.
Blackrat

DiggerUK

ed123 wrote: »

.....I assume the supply of physical gold is tightly controlled.....to what degree does this affect the spot price?

Buyers at our end of the market can find gold to buy very easily.
I suspect there are slightly more difficulties when buying by the tonne. There are no controls, it's a free market.

The only control on the supply of gold is the marketplace. A buyer needs to find a seller, and vice versa. Then normal supply/demand factors determine price.
..._

IronWolf

I would advise people taking a punt on gold to do so in the most liquid form they can. If you buy physical, when the bubble bursts you'll have a much harder time selling it, and will probably get a lower price for it.

So I'm talking about ETF's backed by real gold.

lvader

Physical gold is easy to sell, one phone call a dealer to fix the price, you get around 98% of the spot price. Yes you may get more in a private sale but if the price is dropping fast you would probably lose more in the extras time it takes.

sabretoothtigger

Which dealer does that?

DiggerUK

IronWolf wrote: »

.......So I'm talking about ETF's backed by real gold.

Electronic gold is not something I am up to speed on having never done it. There are four brand leaders as I see it, would appreciate input from those who play paper gold.
PHYS.
SGOL
IAU
GLD
Happy to see thread topic expanded to cover such a discussion, as the gold price does not seem to be doing what I predicted. Price will have to sink back £100+ from today's price before I am anywhere near right. Shall I put the oven on???
..._

DiggerUK

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Which dealer does that?

If they deal on line, then they do it.
Just recently exchanged bars for sovereigns, all done over phone.
Once the deal is arranged you confirm by email, and the time limit starts ticking.
Wasn't exactly an exchange as you have to 'sell' then 'buy'. But end result was an exchange.
..._

lvader

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Which dealer does that?

This was UKBullion.co.uk, I sold a 100g bar. Made the phone call Wednesday afternoon (price was fixed then), I delivered it in person Thursday (in Wolverhampton). The money was in my account straight away.