Jonathan Davis. Front Page FT. Financial Adviser. April 2005. Guess What he said.

geneer

Mr Davis's Departure from professional partnerships came as he predicted that, despite press reports that the housing market was slowing down it could be approaching a crash.

He said that whilst there were only likely to be small falls in the next two months, there was likely to be a sharp drop in 2007.
Banks reigning in debt, the end of the great growth in dual income and the end of falling interest rates were all likely to effect house prices.

...Mr Davis said "there is as much chance of there being no significant fall as finding elvis driving a double decker bus on the moon".

Talk about flippin' nailing it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crikey.

Professional Partnerships, Helm Godfrey, Armstrong-Davis, and now Jonathon Davis "Wealth Management".

The man goes through employers faster than geneer goes through spurious attempts at history revision.

geneer

Sorry. But I do believe old Spamish (and sneaky pimperni1) are suggesting that a scan of an article from April 2005 showing how JD predicted that house prices would crash in 2007 as banks reigned in debt is "revisionist history".

robmatic

geneer wrote: »

Sorry. But I do believe old Spamish (and sneaky pimperni1) are suggesting that a scan of an article from April 2005 showing how JD predicted that house prices would crash in 2007 as banks reigned in debt is "revisionist history".

It could be very selective 'proof' of JD's prescience. What did he predict in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Well in April 2004 he predicted prices would crash in 2005 and 2006.

http://armstrong-test.s3.amazonaws.com/inthemedia%2F290404.pdf

Absolutely nothing about not crashing in 2005, but crashing in 2007. Just a stratement they would crash in 2005/6.

Of course by the following year it had all changed.

If you predict every year that prices will crash next year or the year after it's absolutely inevitable you'll be right one day. That's not prescience though.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

Sorry. But I do believe old Spamish (and sneaky pimperni1) are suggesting that a scan of an article from April 2005 showing how JD predicted that house prices would crash in 2007 as banks reigned in debt is "revisionist history".

Prices actually rose in 2007, by around 5%. So he was wrong again. They fell in 2008.

Lest we forget, he also predicted a 15-20% fall for 2009, the year prices recovered. He also predicted falls of 10-15% in 2010 and falls of 10% this year.

Flipping a coin would have provided a better success percentage.

Pimperne1

"sneaky" pimpernil?

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

Prices actually rose in 2007, by around 5%. So he was wrong again. They fell in 2008.

Talk about picking hairs.
The crash kicked off 2007.

Pimperne1 wrote: »

"sneaky" pimpernil?

yep. Sneaking a wee thanks to hamishes hilarious "Might as well go all in" post.
Nice to see you showing your face.
I wouldn't have wanted you to miss this.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Funnier still....

geneer apparently can't tell the difference between hpc and mse.

http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/forum/topic/10039-jonathan-davis-has-the-last-laugh/

And now even the CC mods are pointing out the failings in his spurious assertions.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well in April 2004 he predicted prices would crash in 2005 and 2006.

http://armstrong-test.s3.amazonaws.com/inthemedia%2F290404.pdf

Absolutely nothing about not crashing in 2005, but crashing in 2007. Just a stratement they would crash in 2005/6.

Of course by the following year it had all changed.

If you predict every year that prices will crash next year or the year after it's absolutely inevitable you'll be right one day. That's not prescience though.

Can't help but notice that the very first contribution was april 2004.
Not 2002. Hmmmmmm. Interesting.

Lets see what else he's saying.

"Interest rates could reach 5% next year". Well, 4.75% as it happens. EPIC FAIL I suppose. :rotfl:

"may be a debt crisis looming" You said it brother.

"likely to plummet during 2005, 2006". Not so good there mate.
Oh well, as Hamish was just so careful to point out, someone claiming that house prices were unlikely to crash in SEPTEMBER 2007, was essentially saying that they might.
So of course you were saying that they might not.

Nah.....thats not going to wash.
Still good to see that by April 2005 and well before 2006, you had refined your analysis accordingly, predicting a house price crash in 2007. Not to shabby JD. Not too shabby.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Funnier still....

geneer apparently can't tell the difference between hpc and mse.

http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/forum/topic/10039-jonathan-davis-has-the-last-laugh/

And now even the CC mods are pointing out the failings in his spurious assertions.

Whoops. I typed HPC instead of MSE. How could that have happened.
Oh the embarassement. How hilarious.

Ah, by "CC mods" you mean "abcott".
Why didn't you just say that.

There it is again. My "Spurious Assertion" inexplicably fully supported by scanned copy of the financial times supplement where my "assertions" are quoted verbatim.
What a nutter!