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Debate House Prices
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Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.
Comments
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Some people don't know what they are talking about.
Origins of the credit crunch:-
Let us see the full comment;)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7521250.stmBetween 2004 and 2006 US interest rates rose from 1% to 5.35%, triggering a slowdown in the US housing market.
Homeowners, many of whom could only barely afford their mortgage payments when interest rates were low, began to default on their mortgages.
Default rates on sub-prime loans - high risk loans to clients with poor or no credit histories - rose to record levels.
The impact of these defaults were felt across the financial system as many of the mortgages had been bundled up and sold on to banks and investors.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I said this not too long back, and still stand by it.
Who has predicted closer to the outcome?
A) The person who stated house prices would crash, but got the timing wrong.
The person who said there wouldn't even be a crash.
In my mind, it's person A. However, all the focus seems to be on the fact that the timing was wrong. Yet others who didn't even predict the event at all, are, somehow, in some peoples minds, far more worthy of their time.
I don't really understand it. The only way I can understand it, is to say to myself "they can't much like him as his views are different to theirs". To be honest, this is all I think it is.
No one predicted the event with success. However, there were people who at least predicted the event would happen. Seems bizzare to target these people as fools or whatever else. Hindsight is fantastic, and I personally feel thats all some of you are relying on.
It is strange, and in most cases incredibly hypocritical.
In the one hand they will deride JD and others for things they admit they get wrong because they were not fully aware of key influences (like the exceptional changes to bank lending criteria).
Yet they will constantly return to the teat of commentators who
just completely got it wrong on all fronts.
Do they not realise that their current arguments (i.e. suppy and demand) are exactly the same discredited arguments used to demonstrate how house prices would never crash?
Apparently not.0 -
It is strange, and in most cases incredibly hypocritical.
In the one hand they will deride JD and others for things they admit they get wrong because they were not fully aware of key influences (like the exceptional changes to bank lending criteria).
Yet they will constantly return to the teat of commentators who
just completely got it wrong on all fronts.
.
Just out of interest, what teats would they be? I have only ever noticed the HPC forecasters I have not really noticed any others, BTW I don't count VI banks estate agents etc as valid forecasters.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Why don't you post this over the other side Gimpere - they could do with an interesting thread (although as its nearly all bears it could be pretty boring). Might be in Edinburgh in next couple of days so could see you (any discount vouchers you can pass to me)?0
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In the one hand they will deride JD and others for things they admit they get wrong because they were not fully aware of key influences (like the exceptional changes to bank lending criteria).
Someone who is not fully aware of key influences is not someone whose predictions have great credibility.0 -
On here we don't use bull and bear to describe people who are bullish and bearish at a particular point in time though, do we?
Erm..no..that is in fact exactly what we do.We use them to describe two different sides who will never, ever change their view. On here, you are a bear and sibley is a bull (for example).
You might spuriously do so. "we" most certainly do not.
Sibley is a troll.
I am currently a bear, and will remain a bear until I decide otherwise.
That I have remained bearish throughout 2006 until now has, I think been validated by events.There could be massive shifts in economic factors but neither of you would ever consider changing your views.
Well evidently there has been massive shifts in economic factors, and some have been unable to change their views despite compelling evidence. However, at the moment, that is a charge that can only be directed to those of a more bullish persuasion.
In any event, this appears to be a sub-clause to your original posts you've only recently added to our little discussion. I thought you were going to "leave me alone".0 -
Let us see the full comment;)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7521250.stm
And it does rather appear as if the credit crunch was caused by mortgage defaults.0 -
Someone who is not fully aware of key influences is not someone whose predictions have great credibility.
They do if those influences were unprecedented, and subsequently accepted into their analysis. Indeed by simply admitting the error in and of itself gives them more credibility.
As opposed to say, those who just didn't consider those influnces at all at any point of the process, not just before they were understood but also after.0 -
Just out of interest, what teats would they be? I have only ever noticed the HPC forecasters I have not really noticed any others, BTW I don't count VI banks estate agents etc as valid forecasters.
How about Ray Boulger? The person Mr Davies went up against on the radio?But Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at John Charcol, said there were unlikely to be house price falls, adding that the problems in the credit markets could be good for house price inflation in the long run.
He said: "Saying there is a one in 10 chance (of a house price crash) is more or less saying they don't think it is going to happen.
"The last quarterly survey from Halifax showed three regions with small falls and I think for the second half of this year we will see prices pretty well flatlining.
"Most people think the credit crunch will have a negative impact on house prices and I think in the short term that will be right, but looking ahead a few months, I think it will have a positive impact."
As I say, everyone was wrong. But suggesting house prices wouldn't even fall!? (article from sept 2007) Yet none of you even mention him...mainly because he talks the housing market up at pretty much all times.
It's all about Mr Davies, as he got some timing wrong, and lets face it, he doesn't humm your tune. Theres not much more to it.
http://www.24dash.com/news/housing/2007-09-18-10-chance-of-1990s-style-house-price-crash0
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