Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.

Graham_Devon

Thing is, geener. No one is really interested.

I've been saying this for a long time. The interest lies in "HPC = Bad". The rest being wrong just doesn't interest people, as they have no beef with them. Only time they may have beef would be if they reversed their predictions and became bearish on the economy. Miles Shipside was very much favoured by some, until he said sellers were unrealistic. He was dropped like a stone, and classed as "needing properties to sell".

It's just the way it goes. Just wish we didn't have to go with the pretence its about predictions, and just admit it's all about a person, media outlet, or commentator being bearish, and therefore, must be proven wrong.

geneer

Interestingly Jonathon Davis does maintain a record of his contributions to the media.
The very first contribution related to house prices....November 2004.

But hey bulls, whats 2 or 3 years between friends right?

Heres another interesting revelation....
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/45352788#Comment_45352788
Deserved its own thread.
Talka about cutting through the bullsh@t.
Seems to me that this discredits almost all the claims the bulls have ever made about the guy.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Thing is, geener. No one is really interested.

I've been saying this for a long time. The interest lies in "HPC = Bad". The rest being wrong just doesn't interest people, as they have no beef with them. Only time they may have beef would be if they reversed their predictions and became bearish on the economy. Miles Shipside was very much favoured by some, until he said sellers were unrealistic. He was dropped like a stone, and classed as "needing properties to sell".

It's just the way it goes. Just wish we didn't have to go with the pretence its about predictions, and just admit it's all about a person, media outlet, or commentator being bearish, and therefore, must be proven wrong.

Your probably right GD.
A shorter way of saying that is that they are hypocrites.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Another one, concerning Davies and Boulger.

Again? Who is closest? Davies, stating if the US goes down, we will too, or Boulger, suggesting the growth will continue?

.

Boulger. No contest.

He admitted that problems in the US can impact the UK, but stated that the differences between the markets would protects us to a large extent.

And he was absolutely bang on correct that the UK supply shortage would shelter our market from the worst of the storm. US prices are down 38% from peak, whilst UK prices are now just 10% or so below.

Because the differences of supply and demand have created a completely different result.

UK = QE, bank bailouts, ZIRP, help for homeowners.

USA = QE, bank bailouts, ZIRP, help for homeowners.

But their prices have fallen off a cliff, whilst ours dipped slightly and then recovered most of the losses in short order.

The main difference is supply and demand. We have a 3% vacancy rate, they have a 13% vacancy rate.

SO whilst JD was banging on about 50% nominal falls until the end of last year, (only now revised to a smaller amount), Boulger has every right to be smug. He was far more right than JD.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Boulger. No contest.

He admitted that problems in the US can impact the UK, but stated that the differences between the markets would protects us to a large extent.

And he was absolutely bang on correct that the UK supply shortage would shelter our market from the worst of the storm. US prices are down 38% from peak, whilst UK prices are now just 10% or so below.

Because the differences of supply and demand have created a completely different result.

UK = QE, bank bailouts, ZIRP, help for homeowners.

USA = QE, bank bailouts, ZIRP, help for homeowners.

But their prices have fallen off a cliff, whilst ours dipped slightly and then recovered most of the losses in short order.

The main difference is supply and demand. We have a 3% vacancy rate, they have a 13% vacancy rate.

SO whilst JD was banging on about 50% nominal falls until the end of last year, (only now revised to a smaller amount), Boulger has every right to be smug. He was far more right than JD.

Yet Ray Boulger, September 2007 (!!!!!!!)

But Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at John Charcol, said there were unlikely to be house price falls, adding that the problems in the credit markets could be good for house price inflation in the long run.

:rotfl:

JD. April 2005.

He said that whilst there were only likely to be small falls in the next two months, there was likely to be a sharp drop in 2007.
Banks reigning in debt, the end of the great growth in dual income and the end of falling interest rates were all likely to effect house prices.

Oh dear Spamish. Not looking so good for you.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

said there were unlikely to be house price falls,

Unlikely.... Not impossible.

And they weren't anywhere close to the magnitude predicted by JD.

50% off by 2011...... Oooops.

adding that the problems in the credit markets could be good for house price inflation in the long run.

Absolutely correct.

The credit crunch has caused the lowest rate of house building since Victorian times. Whilst population is booming.

The crash has sown the seeds of the next boom already.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Unlikely.... Not impossible.

And they weren't anywhere close to the magnitude predicted by JD.

50% off by 2011...... Oooops.



Absolutely correct.

The credit crunch has caused the lowest rate of house building since Victorian times. Whilst population is booming.

The crash has sown the seeds of the next boom already.

OMG. Hamish is losing it.
Yes Hamish, some clown said, in SEPTEMBER 2007, that a house price crash was unlikely. (Northern rock goes down 13th September)

Some other chap said in April 2005 said that there was likely to be a crash in 2007.


Naturally for Spamish Boulger has it.

Good lord Hamish, you really do like to throw the baby out with the bathwater don't you.:T

This is actual better than your fantastic "they were always there only smaller" moment.

Did you actually read the title of this thread.

Ha ha what a pratt.

Pimperne1

Wish I had time to find Jonathan's classic celebratory post from around 2005 when he was using Churchills inspring "We shall fight them on the beaches" speech only to find that he shot his bolt a couple of years too early.

Rinoa

Geneer is so proud of this thread he's actually gone over to CC to tell them all about it.

http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/forum/topic/10039-jonathan-davis-has-the-last-laugh/

Osessed or what?

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Wish I had time to find Jonathan's classic celebratory post from around 2005 when he was using Churchills inspring "We shall fight them on the beaches" speech only to find that he shot his bolt a couple of years too early.

Sadly all we have is his 2005 prediction that house prices would crash in 2007.

I bet you wish you could find the mythical 2002 prediction that you clowns constantly bang on about.

Sadly, HPC wasn't created until winter 2003, and the very first record of JD in the media was 2004. :rotfl:


The credibility of your assertions do warrant consideration.
Thats all I'm saying.