Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

Gotta say Cleaver, for a forum that doesn't have bears and bulls, there sure are a lot of people who appear to be taking this thread personally.
Its because they are all neithers now isn't it. Neithers with bullish views, and Bullish attitudes to Bears. Neithers who just happen to be very familiar with the
language and historical discussion of the Bull/Bear divide.

Have to say, the rebranding is actually understandable.
Even the VIs eventually realised that they would have to temper their analysis or end up looking like know nothing imbiciles.

But then they didn't have the option of adopting new user names.

Honestly geener, I'm not really sure what you're talking about anymore. I'm not trying to have a row, so let's politely finish and I'll let you carry on with the others.

chucknorris

Cleaver wrote: »

Honestly geener, I'm not really sure what you're talking about anymore. I'm not trying to have a row, so let's politely finish and I'll let you carry on with the others.

You've just saved yourself about 3 hours of going around in circles

geneer

Cleaver wrote: »

Oh, okay. Yes, the second person in that article had much the more accurate prediction. As for 'best advice', I don't think either gave advice did they?

One advised that prices would crash.
One advised that they could not.
Clearly the 1st was the best advice.

heathcote123

geneer wrote: »

I am unsure when he made his first
It turns out that prescience is actually a valuable attribute when making predictions.

As is not trying to pretend you were right all along, when clearly the results show you were not...

geneer

chucknorris wrote: »

Didn't JD sell to rent in 2002? (I'm sure I have seen previous posts stating this). If so that was a spectacular costly error.

Well did he?




If he did, then it was a spectacular error.
One which has little bearing on his advice in 2007.

julieq

Back to bulls calling soft landings again. You have to laugh.

Geneer, a bull by definition doesn't call a reduction. Anyone calling a soft landing since 2002 was wrong only because prices kept on rising, so in fact they were a bear in reality. And into that camp falls your guy, who was calling reductions every year and happened to get it right one year.

So in fact your "bulls" and this guy were saying the same thing. It's pretty dense to pick a winner from people who were saying shades of the same thing.

Anyway the point is, who is better off? Someone who bought in 2002,2003,2004,2005 or 2006 or you? I think you know the answer to that, and you're fighting like a cornered rat to avoid having to admit that to yourself. Do you think that if you see all of us off then reality will suddenly turn at right angles and you'll be quids in?

At least most of the HPC bears have grown a pair (or had a pair grown for them by other halves increasingly irritated by an obsession which was costing more and more money as time went on) and bought. Down their way of course the prices will go down but they decided to buy anyway, and down their way they negotiated a massive discount and a low rate. No housing bear ever took a bad decision after all. But down your way you're stuck, because from the moment you actually get your chequebook out you will have to admit you were wrong and it cost you a shedload of cash.

There was no bubble here. There was a mildly overinflated market against a supply shortfall. Where there was a bubble, the bubble has burst now despite government measures similar to here. You will eventually come to understand that.

SingleSue

peakoil wrote: »

just because someone joins a forum in 2005 doesnt mean he is in a position to buy in 2005. it might be the case that like many of us geneer has been saving for many years and is only now reaching the point where he can afforrd the house he likes without killing himself financially.

it does seem odd to spend 6 years on property forums if you are not actually in the position to buy. even odder if geneer has monitored the market since 2005 and still didnt buy at the bottom of the crash in 2008/2009. makes you wonder if he will ever be bold enough. indecision is a terrible thing.

Ah, perfect proof of my oddness.

I've been monitoring the property market since approx 1994/5, been a member here for more than a few years and have no interest in buying, nor am I in a position to buy, a mortgaged house!

I just find it interesting.......hmm, yes, I am def odd. :rotfl:

geneer

heathcote123 wrote: »

As is not trying to pretend you were right all along, when clearly the results show you were not...

Unless of course the results actually showed you were correct.
As they did for JD in 2007.

StevieJ

geneer wrote: »

Don't believe I said timing didn't matter. Indeed some of my responses to this thread suggest otherwise.

So how was the timing of JDs advice in Mrch 2007?
How did it compare to the VI mortgage broker?
Are you another one who can't answer a simple question then?

He said that interest rates were on the up and that would cause damage to the housing market, what actually happened?

geneer

Cleaver wrote: »

Honestly geener, I'm not really sure what you're talking about anymore. I'm not trying to have a row, so let's politely finish and I'll let you carry on with the others.

I was unaware we were having a row.

I beleive that you understand full well what I was getting at, but, for your own reasons, were not interested in continuing that particular discussion.
However, in the unlikely event that I should take what you say at face value I will clarify:-

I was demonstrating that you were incorrect in your declaration that this forum doesn't have bulls and bears.

In evidence, I was highlighting that a number of posters seemed to consider themselves "Bulls" even though they don't neccesarily admit it anymore.

And I was drawing a parallel between this phenomenon and the fact that even the banks had to adopt a measure of reality in their predictions or become laughing stocks.