Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.

StevieJ

geneer wrote: »

Not neccessarily talking about you specifically. But I am noting that most responders to this thread are gabbling all kinds of toss, simply because they can't bring themselves to admit the rather obvious answer, namely that in the article posted, JD did in fact give the best advice and make the most accurate prediction.
Which was kind of my original point.

Not quite sure what was so accurate about it e.g.

Few sensible investors would invest in any asset producing such low returns on capital with such high levels of capital risk.
The time approaches swiftly when capital growth will falter and then reverse.


As inflation has risen - and the Bank of England believes it will be at or above the consumer price index target in two years' time - so have interest rates.

There have been three UK interest rate rises, of a quarter of a percentage point each time, since August last year.

This makes the monthly mortgage payments for those with buy-to-let properties very high in relation to net rents received (after the cost of repairs, properties staying empty and agents' fees etc).

I remember the HPC mob cheering on higher interest rates as some sort of punishment, 'wait until they come off their 2 year fixes' they cried, never quite happened though did it?

System

From what I can make out, geneer thinks timing doesn't matter.

Just for my clarification, is there anyone else, bull or bear, who feels that way? If I'm a published author of financial articles and I make a prediction, does it matter if I'm wrong by 8 years?

I can't help but feel that "timing" is probably the most important bit. I can understand making a song and dance about pretending it isn't, but... actually no I can't.

julieq

No Geneer, the statistic was that prices have gone down since 2006, which means that a few people have negative equity. It was respun by Moneypanic wrongly and the bears lapped that up without thinking about it.

Fact is there was a bubble in the US, which has imploded, despite similar support measures to here. Same thing basically in Ireland. The bubble hasn't burst here because it wasn't a bubble. We are building less homes than we need = supply shortfall, and no amount of witless missing the point and aftertiming quotes of a correction will help you out of that. With massive lending constraints, rents are rising and prices are stable. What do you think's going to happen when the cork comes out of the lending bottle?

Anyway, the fact is you couldn't time your way to the 12 o'clock pips. Even if the market were to fall significantly, you'd just be scared it'd fall further. Meanwhile anyone who bought late 2008 is laughing at you and is 3 years closer to a mortgage free house than you are while you pay ever increasing rent.

I'm guessing that's why you're so desperate to find angles from which you look right, like digging up predictions you didn't make with the full benefit of hindsight. So what is your great insight exactly? You're tenacious, I'll give you that, but that's the end of it.

geneer

Joeskeppi wrote: »

From what I can make out, geneer thinks timing doesn't matter.

Just for my clarification, is there anyone else, bull or bear, who feels that way? If I'm a published author of financial articles and I make a prediction, does it matter if I'm wrong by 8 years?

I can't help but feel that "timing" is probably the most important bit. I can understand making a song and dance about pretending it isn't, but... actually no I can't.

Don't believe I said timing didn't matter. Indeed some of my responses to this thread suggest otherwise.

So how was the timing of JDs advice in Mrch 2007?
How did it compare to the VI mortgage broker?
Are you another one who can't answer a simple question then?

geneer

julieq wrote: »

No Geneer, the statistic was that prices have gone down since 2006, which means that a few people have negative equity. It was respun by Moneypanic wrongly and the bears lapped that up without thinking about it.

Fact is there was a bubble in the US, which has imploded, despite similar support measures to here. Same thing basically in Ireland. The bubble hasn't burst here because it wasn't a bubble. We are building less homes than we need = supply shortfall, and no amount of witless missing the point and aftertiming quotes of a correction will help you out of that. With massive lending constraints, rents are rising and prices are stable. What do you think's going to happen when the cork comes out of the lending bottle?

Anyway, the fact is you couldn't time your way to the 12 o'clock pips. Even if the market were to fall significantly, you'd just be scared it'd fall further. Meanwhile anyone who bought late 2008 is laughing at you and is 3 years closer to a mortgage free house than you are while you pay ever increasing rent.

I'm guessing that's why you're so desperate to find angles from which you look right, like digging up predictions you didn't make with the full benefit of hindsight. So what is your great insight exactly? You're tenacious, I'll give you that, but that's the end of it.

Oh dear. Someone needs a hug.
Auntie flo in Jules?

+1 posters who would rather not answer a simple question.

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

But I am noting that most responders to this thread are gabbling all kinds of toss, simply because they can't bring themselves to admit the rather obvious answer, namely that in the article posted, JD did in fact give the best advice and make the most accurate prediction.

Oh, okay. Yes, the second person in that article had much the more accurate prediction. As for 'best advice', I don't think either gave advice did they? They both said what they thought would happen in the housing market, but didn't say what they thought other should do with respect to whether they should buy or not. Presumably this is because whether house prices are going to rise or fall is just one of many factors when you consider if buying is right for you.

I agree, people can't seem to bring themselves to say that he was right. But then they are correct in saying that he's been saying this for years and years hasn't he?

geneer

Cleaver wrote: »

Oh, okay. Yes, the second person in that article had much the more accurate prediction. As for 'best advice', I don't think either gave advice did they? They both said what they thought would happen in the housing market, but didn't say what they thought other should do with respect to whether they should buy or not. Presumably this is because whether house prices are going to rise or fall is just one of many factors when you consider if buying is right for you.

I agree, people can't seem to bring themselves to say that he was right. But then they are correct in saying that he's been saying this for years and years hasn't he?

I am unsure when he made his first prediction. I am aware that the HPC website was formed late 2003.

I am also aware that house prices would likely have crashed in 2005 had it not been for banks changing their risk assesment criteria (i.e. self destructing). An unprecedented event. And one which was aknowledge, understood then adsorbed into the analysis.

So no, in reality its not the same advise he's been giving for "years and years". Its current advice based on current analysis.

He does compare favourably to those many posters and pundits who utterly failed to see the House Crash coming.

In point of fact, they were so incompetent in their analysis that they didn't get to misstime it. Instead there are examples of bullish VI pundits called soft landings year after year between 2002 to 2008. Poor timing, compounded by the predicted event never happening.


It turns out that prescience is actually a valuable attribute when making predictions.

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

It turns out that prescience is actually a valuable attribute when making predictions.

I guess we all have our own definitions of what makes a good financial prediction. My only two criteria are, I guess, being correct within the timeframe you specified.

Having said this, I'm not sure I'd give much weight to any financial predictor. I think that there are too many factors to try and predict.

geneer

Gotta say Cleaver, for a forum that doesn't have bears and bulls, there sure are a lot of people who appear to be taking this thread personally.
Its because they are all neithers now isn't it. Neithers with bullish views, and Bullish attitudes to Bears. Neithers who just happen to be very familiar with the
language and historical discussion of the Bull/Bear divide.

Have to say, the rebranding is actually understandable.
Even the VIs eventually realised that they would have to temper their analysis or end up looking like know nothing imbiciles.

But then they didn't have the option of adopting new user names.

chucknorris

Didn't JD sell to rent in 2002? (I'm sure I have seen previous posts stating this). If so that was a spectacular costly error.