Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.

chucknorris

geneer wrote: »

HPC itself was created late 2003.
So the whole 2002 claims does seem to lack credibility.

You are correct in that the failure on timing in 2004/2005 is clear, and admitted. How could it not be. But it is clearly a worst failing to get it 100% wrong.

Yes he was correct in 2007. End of story. Your "stopped clock" analoogy drips with insincerity. As is the bullish propensity for characterising a couple of years as some kind of "eternity".

There is nothing insincere about my post as it was referring from 2002 (I did use a ? after 2002 to identify uncertainty) to 2007 which is more than a couple of years.

The fact that HPC was set up in 2003 does not offer any firm evidence that JD did not STR in 2002, I'm not saying he did what I am saying is that there has been plenty said about it (also a comment here from YouTube in red:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s04r05zZCZs


jonathan davis sold his property to rent in 2002 and it was a costly mistake. he's banged on about a crash ever since. he has no credibility. he cares nothing for first time buyers. he's a media "expert" interested in his own self promotion, not other people. just like other people who have sold to rent so they can speculate back into property later, they have a vested interest in a fall in house prices and are not independent. they are no friends of first time buyers.

StevieJ

geneer wrote: »

You do not appear to understand the meaning if the word "unprecedented".
I suggest you look it up.



It was defaults which caused the credit crisis. Defaults come through inability to pay. Increased interest rates reduce the inability to pay. The UK clearly had its own problems, and the claim that it was all caused by the US is spurious indeed.

But the UK didn't have excessive defaults, refer to thousands of Julieq posts.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Some people don't think there has been a crash but a credit crunch induced correction, (BTW prices are probably higher now than when he first predicted a crash) I predict here and now that there will be a bubble and a crash in the next 100 years (I may as well give myself some leeway seeing as timing doesn't matter:)).

Makes not a jot of difference what terminology you wish to use.

The basic premise is, some actually predicted something (reduced prices, or crash) would happen. I think we would all accept a crash happened.

Some people predicted things would continue on.

With the benefit of hindsight, some are now going all out at the person who actually predicted a pullback, crash, correction would happen.

BUT, it all relies on hindsight. Hence the questions over who would have been better off in year x. It all relies on not judgement, but simply lucky timing.

geneer

StevieJ wrote: »

Some people don't think there has been a crash but a credit crunch induced correction,

Some people don't know what they are talking about.
Origins of the credit crunch:-

Homeowners, many of whom could only barely afford their mortgage payments when interest rates were low, began to default on their mortgages.

Default rates on sub-prime loans - high risk loans to clients with poor or no credit histories - rose to record levels.
The impact of these defaults were felt across the financial system as many of the mortgages had been bundled up and sold on to banks and investors.

Defaulting mortgages.

StevieJ wrote: »

(BTW prices are probably higher now than when he first predicted a crash)

You mean average prices. Putting that aside, how about when we compare them to 2007?

StevieJ wrote: »

I predict here and now that there will be a bubble and a crash in the next 100 years (I may as well give myself some leeway seeing as timing doesn't matter:)).

You would be correct. But unimpressive.
If you could make accurate predictions over the next few years that would be more impressive.

geneer

StevieJ wrote: »

But the UK didn't have excessive defaults, refer to thousands of Julieq posts.

I was unaware that Julieq has any idea what she's actually talking about.

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

Then theres no problem with myself, and others using the phrase here then is there.

Erm, I dunno really. I think there is a bit of a problem discussing economics and house prices through a concept which isn't really used anywhere other than this site.

geneer

chucknorris wrote: »

There is nothing insincere about my post as it was referring from 2002 (I did use a ? after 2002 to identify uncertainty) to 2007 which is more than a couple of years.

The fact that HPC was set up in 2003 does not offer any firm evidence that JD did not STR in 2002, I'm not saying he did what I am saying is that there has been plenty said about it (also a comment here from YouTube in red:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s04r05zZCZs


jonathan davis sold his property to rent in 2002 and it was a costly mistake. he's banged on about a crash ever since. he has no credibility. he cares nothing for first time buyers. he's a media "expert" interested in his own self promotion, not other people. just like other people who have sold to rent so they can speculate back into property later, they have a vested interest in a fall in house prices and are not independent. they are no friends of first time buyers.

Some nutters quote in 2007 is not exactly evidence.
And as I said, I can't see how this changes the value of his advice in 2007.

JD has admitted his timing was wrong about there being a crash 2005. As stated. The unprecedented reasons are understood. As stated.

From the autumn of 2005 to the autumn of 2007 a couple of years.

geneer

Cleaver wrote: »

Erm, I dunno really. I think there is a bit of a problem discussing economics and house prices through a concept which isn't really used anywhere other than this site.

It would be a bit hard work if we had to constantly refer to
"someone who believes house prices will fall"
and "someone who believes house prices will rise" in our posts.

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

It would be a bit hard work if we had to constantly refer to
"someone who believes house prices will fall"
and "someone who believes house prices will rise" in our posts.

On here we don't use bull and bear to describe people who are bullish and bearish at a particular point in time though, do we? We use them to describe two different sides who will never, ever change their view. On here, you are a bear and sibley is a bull (for example). There could be massive shifts in economic factors but neither of you would ever consider changing your views.

chucknorris

geneer wrote: »

JD has admitted his timing was wrong about there being a crash 2005. As stated. The unprecedented reasons are understood. As stated.

From the autumn of 2005 to the autumn of 2007 a couple of years.

Whilst it may not have been 2002 (but there is only doubt not certainty) I think it was earlier than 2005 so likely to be more than a couple of years.