Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.

geneer

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6382399.stm

Lest we forget.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6382399.stm

Lest we forget.

Well, lest we forget in Dec 2005, the month you joined house price crash, ESPC's Edinburgh index stood at £175k ~ today it's £214k.

If only you could rewrite your HPC history.

tartanterra

The best advice in this article is actually the BBC disclaimer:

"You should not rely on this information"

shortchanged_2

The article is probably a very good foresight of what is happening/to come in the housing market in the UK.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

Well, lest we forget in Dec 2005, the month you joined house price crash, ESPC's Edinburgh index stood at £175k ~ today it's £214k.

If only you could rewrite your HPC history.

Naturally the "harsh reality" is that you've decided to rewrite history and pretend the logical review and application of the rules of your 3 year epic boosheet timing game did not occour.

This is not of course surprising, given that the underlying premise of this thread is that you lot do like to make stuff up.

You have of course failed to address the salient point. For obvious reasons.

IOf the two "experts" in the discussion, dated early 2007, who ultimately was proven to be correct, and who was proven to be wrong.
You have of course failed to address the salient point. For obvious reasons.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

Naturally the "harsh reality" is that you've decided to rewrite history and pretend the logical review and application of the rules of your 3 year epic boosheet timing game did not occour.

This is not of course surprising, given that the underlying premise of this thread is that you lot do like to make stuff up.

You have of course failed to address the salient point. For obvious reasons.

IOf the two "experts" in the discussion, dated early 2007, who ultimately was proven to be correct, and who was proven to be wrong.
You have of course failed to address the salient point. For obvious reasons.

The salient point is that you and many others have followed the advice of people like Jonathan Davis and are much the poorer for doing so.

He's been predicting a crash every year since 2003 and eventually got lucky once in 2008. So what did he predict next?

For 2009 he said lowering IR's wouldn't make any difference and he predicted falls of 15/20% http://www.aboutproperty.co.uk/uk-property/2009/01/08/jonathan-davis-makes-his-predictions

For 2010 he said the govt had delayed the inevitable by lowering IR's but was sure prices would fall 10/15% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8386796.stm

For 2011, after being totally humiliated in 2009 and 2010 he again predicted falls of 10% http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11914386 which currently look highly unlikely.

Is Jonatahn Davis your hero, do you have his picture on your bedroom wall?

Thrugelmir

Rinoa wrote: »

Is Jonatahn Davis your hero, do you have his picture on your bedroom wall?

Seems as if you have a facsination with Jonathan Davis. Judging by your post.

Easy to rubbish another persons views when they don't align with your own. Far harder to put up coherent points to debate the issues fully.

Does time really matter? As many issues are far from resolved.......

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Or to put it another way.....

Gold is in a bubble. Gold will crash.

I've been saying that every year for the last few years. And I'm right. Gold IS in a bubble and Gold WILL crash.

Of course, timing is absolutely f ecking everything in this game, so because I've been wrong about the timing, in reality I've been wrong about Gold.

JD is a stopped clock. If you make the same prediction every year for enough years about a cyclical market, EVENTUALLY you'll be right. But even then, if the market only dips a little, instead of crashing by the "40% to 50%" in nominal terms that JD predicted, he's wrong. And not just a little wrong, but spectacularly wrong.

Jonathan Davis predicted a price drop in September of 2008, between 40 - 50% up to 2011

http://www.kevinhenry.co.uk/Blog/post/2010/12/31/PREDICTIONS-FOR-2011.aspx

The whole point of predicting market movements is so that people can benefit from the prediction. Either you or your readers/clients. And of course in order to benefit, you have to get both the timing and the scale pretty close.

If you predict a crash and get either the timing or the scale wrong, and you or your readers would have been better off doing the opposite of what your prediction suggested, then you are just plain wrong in every way. And that's the reality about JD, and most of everyone else on hpc.

Most people in this country would have been better off just getting on with it and buying a house instead of waiting for a crash and renting in the meantime.

That's reality. And ultimately, that's all that matters.

geneer

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Hamish&Rinoa "yeah but no but yeah but no".

It was a simple question chaps.
In the article, spring 2007, who was right?
JD who said house prices would crash.
Or the VI who said they would not.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

The salient point is that you and many others have followed the advice of people like Jonathan Davis and are much the poorer for doing so.

He's been predicting a crash every year since 2003 and eventually got lucky once in 2008. So what did he predict next?

For 2009 he said lowering IR's wouldn't make any difference and he predicted falls of 15/20% http://www.aboutproperty.co.uk/uk-property/2009/01/08/jonathan-davis-makes-his-predictions

For 2010 he said the govt had delayed the inevitable by lowering IR's but was sure prices would fall 10/15% http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8386796.stm

For 2011, after being totally humiliated in 2009 and 2010 he again predicted falls of 10% http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11914386 which currently look highly unlikely.

Is Jonatahn Davis your hero, do you have his picture on your bedroom wall?

So timing yeah?

What a shocker.

Gotta say, not pin pointing the timing is understandable.

Utterly failing to see it coming at all......not so much.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Or to put it another way.....

Gold is in a bubble. Gold will crash.

I've been saying that every year for the last few years. And I'm right. Gold IS in a bubble and Gold WILL crash.

Of course, timing is absolutely f ecking everything in this game, so because I've been wrong about the timing, in reality I've been wrong about Gold.

JD is a stopped clock. If you make the same prediction every year for enough years about a cyclical market, EVENTUALLY you'll be right. But even then, if the market only dips a little, instead of crashing by the "40% to 50%" in nominal terms that JD predicted, he's wrong. And not just a little wrong, but spectacularly wrong.

http://www.kevinhenry.co.uk/Blog/post/2010/12/31/PREDICTIONS-FOR-2011.aspx

The whole point of predicting market movements is so that people can benefit from the prediction. Either you or your readers/clients. And of course in order to benefit, you have to get both the timing and the scale pretty close.

If you predict a crash and get either the timing or the scale wrong, and you or your readers would have been better off doing the opposite of what your prediction suggested, then you are just plain wrong in every way. And that's the reality about JD, and most of everyone else on hpc.

Most people in this country would have been better off just getting on with it and buying a house instead of waiting for a crash and renting in the meantime.

That's reality. And ultimately, that's all that matters.

Lordy. Timing again.
Two bulls coming up with the timing fall back position in the same day. What are the chances of that.
Ive never seen the like.

So, timing may have been wrong.
But overall not as wrong as those who were so cross eyed failed to see it coming at all.

You would have to agree with that surely?

Anyway, back to topic.
Who was the most spectacularly wrong in the article in 2007.
And for the person who got it right, would following that advice have benefited any readers?

"woooooooo wooooooooo wooooooooooooooo"