House Price Crash 5

roswell

True IR rises arent guarenteed but there looking like they will probably happen, there are many other factors to take into account not just IR rates or housing its more likely in my opinion that a slump in the economy will cause the next devaluation of property.

Woby_Tide

Could somoeone start a poll

Which was your favourite house price crash thread?

a) House Price Crash 1
b) House Price Crash 2
c) House Price Crash 3
d) House Price Crash 4
e) House Price Crash 5
f) Wait a minute weren't they the same discussion each time with a new name?
g) all of them I love talking the same old !!!! again and again, I just haven't spotted that I'm doing it

Alan_M_2

Well during Number 4 we ironed out the finer details of odds/probabilites and the mathematics revolving around the even money shots on a roulette wheel.

During thread 5, we've had an interesting conversation about statistics, how they were compiled and really how little they actually tell us.

I didn't take part in any of the thread previous to 4, but I have to say I've enjoyed the last two imensly and I will take an active, albeit a little tongue in cheek, part in any further house price crash threads, long may they continue:)

roswell

4 had to be best id say but statisticaly ...

Woby_Tide

I'm afraid all statistic based 'enjoyment' must be backed up by a survey of no less than 100 people


plus some news reports evaluating the survey repsonses but producing at least 4 different conclusions ranging from 'no enjoyment' to 'best thread ever'

hibees1875_2

Alan_M wrote:

The one noticeable thing in the above accounts is the 6 fold increase in disposal of land.

Problem is... who is buying the land. someone is, maybe someone better at building than berkley? perhaps they have sold some land to the olympic games folks only for them to build on it themselves over the coming years? probably unlikely, but shows how one set of results doesnt give a big enough picture.

although.. has anyone noticed with a lot of new build developments, as well as offering 5% deposit paid, they are now offering guaranteed rental incomes for buy to let people.... is this a sign of desperately trying to drum up sales in a downward market? or just good marketing generally to get a quick iinitial turnaround on property and recoup the bulk of costs quickly for shareholders?

does anyone have shares ina house building co and go to the AGM's ?? would b interesting to know what is said there!

hibees1875_2

if houses prices come down, but interest rates go up.... then you pay more for borrowing less. which theoretically, could work out at meaning that there is no overall saving.... but the trouble with theories is they are nearly always wrong, and even when they are right, they are wrong, because things change, so you need a new theory. then it just gets a bit chaotic with one theory after another, and lo, the chaos theory was borne.

hmm its late... must b bed time now.

roswell

True but id rather pay 17 % Interest on £50 000 than 10 % interest on 100 000.

ManAtHome

To answer a few questions..

HPC#4 - excellent discussion of stats and probability
HPC#5 - probably set the future direction of HPC threads towards stats
will have to wait for HPC#6 before making a definite (100% or 1.0) decision

New builds with rental guarantees - I reckon they're undewriting the rental instead of giving a bigger discount. After all, if your rent/mortgage is covered for 3 years, will be worth 50% more by the time the "tenants" run out...

Directors share purchases and sales are usually more interesting than AGMs - anyone have any info on this? (yeah, I could try googling, but as we've already veered off the stats, don't want to get us further off-topic).

Paul_Herring

Woby_Tide wrote:

Could somoeone start a poll

Which was your favourite house price crash thread?

Here ya go: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=325626 - option (g) was a bit too long so I edited it