House Price Crash 5

Alan_M_2

I was explaining how statistics can show a constant rise when there is in fact a drop. The post was concerning statistics and how they are compiled, exactly what straws do you think I'm clutching?

I'm trying to get across how statistics can be misleading in both a positive and negative way, yet you seem to think I'm constantly trying to prove something else, the example I chose just happened to be factual as it was the house I used to own.

cwcw

Alan_M wrote:

I was explaining how statistics can show a constant rise when there is in fact a drop. The post was concerning statistics and how they are compiled, exactly what straws do you think I'm clutching?

I'm trying to get across how statistics can be misleading in both a positive and negative way, yet you seem to think I'm constantly trying to prove something else, the example I chose just happened to be factual as it was the house I used to own.

Because, what I think you were trying to infer, was that even though average prices in almost every place in the country are still rising, there can still be houses that aren't actually selling. I think the increasing sales volumes seems to address this concern. If sales volumes were falling, then fair enough, but they aren't.

abaxas

Maybe we all need to chill out and wait for the new year.

Who knows what will happen in the srping 'bounce'.

sm9ai

Gorgeous_George wrote:

...except, they may have large inheritances from people who had houses. Now they have their inheritance AND their salary to throw at the housing market.



GG

...except, the inheritance will be taxed, and then split between a number of sibliing (and lets not forget elderly care). So if theres anything left then yes it could.

Alan_M_2

cwcw wrote:

Because, what I think you were trying to infer, was that even though average prices in almost every place in the country are still rising, there can still be houses that aren't actually selling. I think the increasing sales volumes seems to address this concern. If sales volumes were falling, then fair enough, but they aren't.

You read into it whatever you like, I wasn't inferring anything, I was having a conversation about statistics and how they are compiled.

hot_chick_2

Like it or not, house prices will soon go down for a while as interest rates go up and then house prices will start to rise again when people can afford them again as the interest rates drop.

It is as simple as that.

The only thing that is not simple is the exact timing of the fall and the rise.

Just be sure not to buy now but when prices have fallen a good way if you are buying for an investment.:rotfl:

tomstickland

Alan_M wrote:

You read into it whatever you like, I wasn't inferring anything, I was having a conversation about statistics and how they are compiled.

I think, statistically speaking, that the liklihood of him misunderstanding your intentions has risen to an almost significant probability. But we can't be sure.

Alan_M_2

tomstickland wrote:

I think, statistically speaking, that the liklihood of him misunderstanding your intentions has risen to an almost significant probability. But we can't be sure.

Don't you start, otherwise I'll try and compare the likely hood of the misunderstanding to the chanes of +12 count in an 8 deck shoe of blackjack. Then we can send another thread off at an utter tangent:rotfl:

Gorgeous_George

sm9ai wrote:

...except, the inheritance will be taxed, and then split between a number of sibliing (and lets not forget elderly care). So if theres anything left then yes it could.

...except, those who buy their houses are usually employed. Employed people can only afford one child so, no siblings to share the pot of gold with. IHT starts at £285,000 so hardly a huge problem for smaller families.



GG

talksalot81

hot_chick wrote:

Like it or not, house prices will soon go down for a while as interest rates go up and then house prices will start to rise again when people can afford them again as the interest rates drop.

It is as simple as that.

The only thing that is not simple is the exact timing of the fall and the rise.

Just be sure not to buy now but when prices have fallen a good way if you are buying for an investment.:rotfl:

Except of course there are no guarantees of IR rises...

In my view it is affordability which will change the market. Like it or not, if no one can afford to start on the housing ladder, those already on it will not be able to climb...