House Price Crash 5

Alan_M_2

lypsey wrote:

heres another gem

http://www.24dash.com/news/1/14027/index.htm

Sentiment is everything and nearly 25% of people think prices will be down

Whenever I read a quote like that, and before I've even read the article, the first thing that springs to mind it......

That means 75% of people either don't know or don't think they will drop.....

Alan_M_2

Xbigman wrote:

Could they be expecting a drop in property prices and land prices, thus they are running down their landbank?
Regards


X

It could be pure coincidence, it just leapt out at me from the figures, everything else down, but that was up substantially.

lynzpower

lypsey wrote:

heres another gem

http://www.24dash.com/news/1/14027/index.htm

Sentiment is everything and nearly 25% of people think prices will be down

Actually, look at where the stats have come from

Around one in five believe the housing bust could come even sooner - within the next 12 months, debt consultancy firm Thomas Charles said.

Young adults displayed the highest level of pessimism, with 27% predicating a crash within 18 months compared to 23% of 30 to 50-year-olds.

Respondents from a debt consultancy firm are likely to be pretty pessimistic bunch I would have thought, and also likely to go on about housing costs being too high as clearly they are financially stuffed.

Sentiment in this group is likely to be negiative in any case- surely

abaxas

lynzpower wrote:

Actually, look at where the stats have come from


Respondents from a debt consultancy firm are likely to be pretty pessimistic bunch I would have thought, and also likely to go on about housing costs being too high as clearly they are financially stuffed.

Sentiment in this group is likely to be negiative in any case- surely

Agreed.!

However most house price information comes from companies with interests in the housing market.

Maybe we should tone down their view too?

(I think we all know the real answer to this)

sm9ai

lypsey wrote:

heres another gem

http://www.24dash.com/news/1/14027/index.htm

Sentiment is everything and nearly 25% of people think prices will be down

As Alan M said that not really much use unless a similar survey taken by them last year said 5% think prices will go down.

advent1122

*does a search to see if the house price crash has been mentioned before*

Conclusion-
It has been mentioned for several years yet prices continue to increase <<HOW BIZARRE>>

Gilbo

We are a small Island. If anyone has the sense to look at the United States experience it might put them off investing in houses just for now. Lots of investors thought house prices could only go up, now pundits are wondering how far the housing slump will fall. New home cancellations are up and builders are slashing prices. This has now started to have a knock on effect on the rest of the economy.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/22684/how-the-us-housing-slump-affects-metals-.html

The trouble with blowing bubbles is that you're never quite sure how big you can get them before they burst

Gorgeous_George

IMHO, prices should have levelled of at the turn of the millenium. Then came 9/11 and interest rates crashed leading to extreme house price growth.

As interest rates creep up, prices must fall - regardless of demand. I estimate falling IRs could lead to price rises (5- 10% per 1% fall in IRs), steady IRs could lead to a levelling off or small drop (10-20%). Sustained increases in IRs could lead to a crash (worst case could be a 50% crash if rates rise to 8-9%).

I just don't think IRs will rise that much. There'dl be lot of people worse off than me if prices crashed by 50%.

These threads are still boring though.



GG

sm9ai

advent1122 wrote:

*does a search to see if the house price crash has been mentioned before*

Conclusion-
It has been mentioned for several years yet prices continue to increase <<HOW BIZARRE>>

It is very bizarre isn't it. They really do defy logic.

Prices HAVE to crash (or drop, but the way people go on any drop is a crash). There will become a time when no-one can afford.

Alan_M_2

Gorgeous_George wrote:

IMHO, prices should have levelled of at the turn of the millenium. Then came 9/11 and interest rates crashed leading to extreme house price growth.

As interest rates creep up, prices must fall - regardless of demand. I estimate falling IRs could lead to price rises (5- 10% per 1% fall in IRs), steady IRs could lead to a levelling off or small drop (10-20%). Sustained increases in IRs could lead to a crash (worst case could be a 50% crash if rates rise to 8-9%).

I just don't think IRs will rise that much. There'dl be lot of people worse off than me if prices crashed by 50%.

These threads are still boring though.



GG

To be quite frank, even though I'm one of the doomsayers, even I'm getting fed up with the conversation, you can only air your views so many times and you even get fed up with listen to yourself:)

Intersting theory on 9/11 and interest rates, all these things play a part.