House Price Crash 4

Alan_M_2

Fundamentally you could narrow any investment medium to these two outcomes with nothing else other than speculation. Inside information will provide short term losses/gains on individual shares, but even armed with this information it's still no more than speculation.

However, most members of the public are not involved in stock market trading, at least, not day trading and certainly not for life changin sums of money (which is what many homes have become).

The conversation and comment itself is of interest to many people, anecdotal reports are actually quite interesting, for instance, a friend of mine who has just remortgaged has had his house valued at £50K less than it was 18 months ago (from £285K down to £235K in kent). I find that interesting, but I'm not about to declare a global catasrophe as a result of it.

There is nothing else of substance, because there is no such thing as substance speculation, all we have is historical fact once the event has occured.

Predicting and movement in financial markets of any kind is no different to picking a horse in a race, you make a decision based on the information you have to hand, past statistics, it's current health (where are we in the market cycle) and it's competition (are other investments currently performing better).

The Froth as you put it, would be classed as information/research/data in any other respect, all these points are considered when making a decision but none of them are fact and none of them singly should lead to that decision.

If you strip this down to the two choices you state above, your investing equates to playing red/black at roulette and effectively ignoring any previous spins on the wheel - which whilst they don't effect odds, they do effect probablilty.

cwcw

beanieandme wrote:

Yeah, but in general, Cheshire is more desirable, or should I say dearer. I know, same applies here, certain parts are more desirable than others, but the further up north you go, the cheaper it is.

There's not really much in the distance north between Cheshire and South Yorkshire..

Like someone else said, it depends on where in South Yorkshire Spendless is referring to. In my corner of Sheffield, house and flat prices are still very much on the up (I wouldn't be buying if they weren't). I'm not sure where Spendless lives, but £185k for a 4 bed detached seems ridiculously cheap. Double that and it's about the level they're worth in my part of South Yorkshire. I'm not sure how this compares with Cheshire, but I'm betting that it's more expensive than a lot of it, and vice versa there'll be parts of Cheshire that are more expensive too. Even different roads within areas of towns/cities can have their own specific housing market.

ManAtHome

Alan_M wrote:

Fundamentally you could narrow any investment medium to these two outcomes with nothing else other than speculation.

Even more fundamentally, what's the use of discussing anything - unless you absolutely know what is "right", what's going to happen etc, you're just speculating (apologies for using "speculating" in a non-money-grabbing context by the way...).

Alan_M_2

Absolutely agree, I do actually have a doctorate in "Hindsight":) That makes me a fully paid up member of the Told You So Society......

I think it comes down to actually enjoying a bit of research, it keeps the mind focused, I'm fortunate to be my own boss and really only work two or three hours a day. So a good debate helps keep the cogs whirring:)

nrsql

Some information you might find useful.

Next year I am having my house redecorated (waiting for the decorator) and will probably be looking to sell. Expect that to be around April.
Given my record that will be the time when houses will not be moving probably prompting the crash.

Market_Oracle

nrsql wrote:

Some information you might find useful.

Next year I am having my house redecorated (waiting for the decorator) and will probably be looking to sell. Expect that to be around April.
Given my record that will be the time when houses will not be moving probably prompting the crash.

LOL, maybe the crash of 2007 could be tracked to one buyer pulling out and a large chain collapsing having a ripple out effect ...

reminds me of how the tulip bubble collapse began at a routine bulb auction when, for the first time, the greater fool refused to show up and pay. Within days, the panic had spread across the country. Despite the efforts of traders to prop up demand, the market for tulips evaporated. Flowers that had commanded 5,000 guilders a few weeks before now fetched one-hundredth that amount.

or our very own dot com bubble which went bang with the lastminute.com float.

BobProperty

Market_Oracle wrote:

LOL, maybe the crash of 2007 could be tracked to one buyer pulling out and a large chain collapsing having a ripple out effect ...

reminds me of how the tulip bubble collapse began at a routine bulb auction when, for the first time, the greater fool refused to show up and pay. Within days, the panic had spread across the country. Despite the efforts of traders to prop up demand, the market for tulips evaporated. Flowers that had commanded 5,000 guilders a few weeks before now fetched one-hundredth that amount.

or our very own dot com bubble which went bang with the lastminute.com float.

Introduction of HIPs next year, MO.

beanieandme

cwcw wrote:

I'm not sure where Spendless lives, but £185k for a 4 bed detached seems ridiculously cheap. Double that and it's about the level they're worth in my part of South Yorkshire.

Average detached 4 bed houses are going for around £450k-£550k round here.

ReportInvestor

I know what you mean about Edinburgh, Lynz. I had once dreamed of retiring there but this looks less & less likely.

Guardian

UK house prices continued to rise in November - up 1.4% according to Nationwide (on top of 0.8% in October).

"....The typical house has added more than £15,000 to its price over the last 12 months, with the average cost now at £172,185...."

Spendless

cwcw wrote:

Like someone else said, it depends on where in South Yorkshire Spendless is referring to. In my corner of Sheffield, house and flat prices are still very much on the up (I wouldn't be buying if they weren't). I'm not sure where Spendless lives, but £185k for a 4 bed detached seems ridiculously cheap. Double that and it's about the level they're worth in my part of South Yorkshire. I'm not sure how this compares with Cheshire, but I'm betting that it's more expensive than a lot of it, and vice versa there'll be parts of Cheshire that are more expensive too. Even different roads within areas of towns/cities can have their own specific housing market.

Yes this is exactly what I mean. I can only comment on what I can see happening on the house prices I keep on eye on which is my village and the next and also the area of the town where I used to live. I have no idea what is happening in other areas of my town and what I say is happening within 5 miles of my home is clearly not what is happening in the same county where the above poster lives. BTW S. Yorks with an airport, think you'll work it out