House Price Crash 4

tomstickland

but it would have been incredibly confusing to use the same word to describe both instances.

Earlier you were telling me that probability and odds were different entities and I was confusing them. I believe, and still do, that they are both measures of the same thing. I think the only disagreement is on this point.

I agree that the "instantaneous" event and events with history are two separate situations to consider. This does not invalidate your analagy; your choice of words did confuse me as to the intention of your original statement.

Alan_M_2

mr.broderick wrote:

Take 6 spins..

1,7,15,3,34,29
7,7,7,7,7,7

Which of these combinations if you had to would you put your mortgage on?:rotfl:

Ahh now thers the real question, I wouldn't as bar carribean stud poker, roulette is the worst odds in the casino, you'll find me in the card room playing poker:T

Alan_M_2

tomstickland wrote:

Earlier you were telling me that probability and odds were different entities and I was confusing them. I believe, and still do, that they are both measures of the same thing. I think the only disagreement is on this point.

I agree that the "instantaneous" event and events with history are two separate situations to consider. This does not invalidate your analagy; your choice of words did confuse me as to the intention of your original statement.

Yes I see, I was explaining the difference between odds and probability in my original analagy, but as you correctly pointed out the words can be interchanged, however it's become common practice in terms of gaming to use the two terms in the meanings as I described above, and as I was describing Roulette I resorted to the common language.

Sadly Ive spent far too many hours in casinos throughout the years

jb478914

mr.broderick wrote:

Take 6 spins..

1,7,15,3,34,29
7,7,7,7,7,7

Which of these combinations if you had to would you put your mortgage on?:rotfl:

Both equally likely, but instinct seems to suggest that you go for a mix of numbers.

Is the lottery not similar, where no one would pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 even though it has the same probability as any other result (barring different weight of balls conspiracy theories!)

relation to HPC - instinct related to sentiment?

Alan_M_2

I once read that in any one draw upwards of one hundred thousand people actually play the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6.

What a disaster if they ever came in:rotfl:

mr.broderick

I am a statistician.
When Im not too tired we'll talk about pseudo-random numbers..random doesnt do it for me i like true unpredictability but thats gonna hurt some peoples heads on here ...:beer:

mr.broderick

An easier way of explaining it would be like this.

Mr a bets £500 on red, it lands on black.
He does this 22 more times and each time it lands on black.
Mr b (no pun intended) arrives at the table and bets £500 on red. What are both our chances?

mr.broderick

jb478914 wrote:

Both equally likely, but instinct seems to suggest that you go for a mix of numbers.

Is the lottery not similar, where no one would pick 1,2,3,4,5,6 even though it has the same probability as any other result (barring different weight of balls conspiracy theories!)

relation to HPC - instinct related to sentiment?

Yes that is exactly my point well done for evaluating it..:T

ManAtHome

Ah - a statistician - used to know one of them..

His definiition was "if your head is in the oven and your feet are in the fridge, on average you are comfortable".

I partially remember my head hurting reading Simon Orebi-Gann's (?) theories on random numbers...

mr.broderick

I noticed somebody posted recently on this forum...there are lies, damn lies and then there's statisitics..it made me chuckle...it was the 1st thing our lecturer said to us all those years ago...15 to be precise.