House Price Crash 4

beanieandme

fimonkey wrote:

To add my two penneth worth, discussions like this are HUGELY interesting to me as I'm a potential FTB who's just inherited 30K and lives in Bournemouth (Immensley expensive, and yes the folk down here are definately living longer, .. good on em). ... So what should I do? put down 20K down as deposit on an overpriced shed, or put the 20K into a savings account in the hope the market stagnates/falls?

Keep the discussion up please guys, inlcuding all the variables re: interest rates/unemployment etc, I'm learning heaps! (And any advice on what you'd do in my position is very welcome).

I put my £53k into a new house this year from my last house when I had to move back with my folks coz of a split into a £148k house with my new partner. Start a new thread I'd say.

Alan_M_2

fimonkey wrote:

To add my two penneth worth, discussions like this are HUGELY interesting to me as I'm a potential FTB who's just inherited 30K and lives in Bournemouth (Immensley expensive, and yes the folk down here are definately living longer, .. good on em). ... So what should I do? put down 20K down as deposit on an overpriced shed, or put the 20K into a savings account in the hope the market stagnates/falls?

Keep the discussion up please guys, inlcuding all the variables re: interest rates/unemployment etc, I'm learning heaps! (And any advice on what you'd do in my position is very welcome).

No one is really qualified to give you advice or tell you what to do, well the governor of the Bank of England might be an exception to that but you get the idea.

My advice is take as much information as you can, I believe there will be a drop in values, but I try to be as open minded as I can about the current market, however, my opinion is always going to be swayed by my underlying belief.

So, what do you do?

You take in as much information as you can, as many opinions as you think you can stomach! You weigh them all up and then make a considered decision, but it must be your decision and one which you're comfortable with.

You won't go far wrong then, and if you do, it's more than likely to be simple bad luck, and that's something no one can predict.

sheraz2

I feel the more opinons you take in, the more confusing it gets lol

But do be coy abuout how you do it. Also, never forget, there's much more important things in life.

beanieandme

I lived down there once. If it's purely investment and you're not bothered about living in the property you might buy, have you thought about buying a shed to let out to those lovely students you get from abroad down there. The old biddies again have pushed the prices up, I hope they are in flood areas, would do us all a favour (just kidding, I like a harsh joke). Could be worse, could be London prices.

Spendless

2 years ago when I joined MSE people were saying "don't buy a crash is about to happen". I made the point then as I do now, the property market is made up of lots of little pockets and what is happening varies town to town area to area.

In my own area,(eg my village and the next) I can say that the signs are there, that the prices will come down I base this on

the bungalow near me, up for sale nearly 18 months, not sold down from £250,00 to £215,000

friends bungalow, up for sale since summer, within weeks knocked down from £320K to £299,950, not one viewer.

EA told friend to expect £185k for her 4 bed detached, and told her she could have got over £200K for it a couple of years ago.

Lots of ex LA 3 bed semis for sale under £120K (no stamp duty) before paying stamp duty was rised higher, you couldn't buy one of these for less than £120

For my own house, I have a mortgage of £45k, a similar house in the street is unsold at £140,000. I think it is unlikely my place will 'go down' as much as £100K but if it does, it does. I'm in the house I want to live in,it is big enough for the 4 of us, I'm in the area I want to be, in catchment for the primary and secondary school I wish my kids to attend.

Both me and DH have seperately been victims of neg equity. DH house was repossessed in the late 80s (he very intelligently bought it with someone he didn't know, who ended up doing a midnight flit:rolleyes: . A financial lesson for our kids one day;) ). We were able to sit my neg equity property out and sell once prices had risen again, but it most certainly created us a problem when we outgrew the house

ReportInvestor

If you think a house price crash is going to happen in the next two years and want a hedge against it, why not bet on the Tories to win the next election?

Gordon's credibility (Mr. Stability - The "abolition of boom & bust" ) would be seriously undermined. And it's their successful attacks on previous Tory economic incompetence that have been so successful.

abaxas

I always find it strange that people are allowed to speculate on basic human needs.

Bring on food inflation! My marrow is larger than yours.

Snow_Dog

Oooh yes, lets pop politics into the thread, its not quite hot enough yet.

"Gordons credibility" dont make me laugh, once again we are led by a decade of mismanagment to the brink of what many are predicting a "crash", for the tories to have to pick up the pieces, just like last time. This is the guy who breaks his own rules and simply keeps redefining the book keeping period till someday it might add up.

Yup - he is truly the king of "no more boom and bust", he will simply ride the boom like a screaming child hanging on for dear life not knowing what hes doing, and will be kicked out just in time for the tories to be blamed for the bust.




Walks off quietly now :whistle:

Doozergirl

wolvoman wrote:

But a huge amount of the upsurge in the housing market has been caused by hype and sentiment. Why do you seem to believe that hype and sentiment can only work one way?

Accommodation demand alone cannot account for the recent 200%-300% rise in prices since the mid-90s. The vast majority of that demand is speculative.

The question surely is what form the house price correction takes - whether it is by a long period of stagnating actual prices or a shorter period of declining actual prices. Either way, a real terms drop seems inevitable - at least compared to wage inflation anyway.

Eh? Is that really in response to my post? I don't know how you seem to know what I think about property prices from that.

Don't suppose you read my first post properly either. My point is only that it isn't happening just because the OP says it is. :rolleyes: There's been commentary in the newspapers for at least five years expecting a crash. Not to say it won't happen but it does seem pretty definate to me that sentiment alone doesn't cause a crash.

tomstickland

cordial wrote:

I am seriously cheesed off about the endlessly-repeated speculation about impending 'crashes' in house prices.

I find "house price crash" discussions endlessly entertaining.
However, I'm seriously cheesed off to find that every one has a post complaining about all of the threads being the same.