More Housing Shortage News...... One for the shortage deniers

[Deleted User]

geneer wrote: »

I'd suggest profit is rarely a reason to move.
Try again caller.

Profit could be one of many incentives. Buying your next home because of relocation or increasing family size being the common ones.

If you reads my post I mentioned incentives and advantages.

Try again caller

[Deleted User]

Seems to be a concerted effort to misconstrue any statements some posters don't like on here.

To clarify, at the moment most people would be reluctant to sell unless forced to by other circumstances partly (NOT EXCLUSIVELY) due to the fact that the next mortgage they take is likely to be not as good an offering.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

[quote=[Deleted User];41552916] most people would be reluctant to sell unless forced to by other circumstances partly (NOT EXCLUSIVELY) due to the fact that the next mortgage they take is likely to be not as good an offering.[/QUOTE]

Very true. And the difference can be huge.

For every 1% worse the mortgage deal, you need to save roughly £15,000 on the average house price to break even.

So a current mortgage holder that is offered a new deal 3% higher above base than their current deal, would need to get a £45,000 discount on the average house just to break even.

And that simply ain't gonna happen.... It's also a stark reminder to the bears of why they were mugs to delay purchase til now. The higher bank margins have wiped out any savings on the sticker price of the house in most cases.

And of course, there's also the very real risk that if you sell your house at any kind of discount, the seller of the house you want to buy will refuse to do the same.

AD9898_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'd suggest the people that need to move at any cost, versus those that just want to move if they can get the right price for their house, are a tiny percentage of potential sellers.

Try again caller.

And so it should be with IR's at 0.5%, but even if IR's stayed as they were, if banks were repo'ing as they would normally do (they can't through fear of going bust because they wouldn't be able to sell them for more than loans secured against them, you know the reason for this ), at least 300,000 would be facing repossession orders as we speak, versus 70k at peak in the 90's with double digit IR's.

Proof beyond doubt that houses were and still are way overpriced. Of course I don't expect anyone who as bought at around the peak of the market, taken on to much debt, committed fraud, MEW'd heavily to agree.

Graham_Devon

[quote=[Deleted User];41552726]Do you really think that the availability/affordability of loans isn't a factor in the housing market?

There are many others as well:
inflation
wages
job security
interest rates
population growth
family size

to name but a few.

Discussing one of them doesn't mean I don't recognise the others.[/QUOTE]

No, which is why I have never said that.

I disagree when it appears to be the only reason for people unable to buy houses, in some posters minds.

Surprised your list mentions all those reasons, but completely ignores prices. Actually, I'm not surprised, I take that back

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For every 1% worse the mortgage deal, you need to save roughly £15,000 on the average house price to break even.

LOL

Dear lord Hamish.

Nice maths, but reality has let you down yet again.

AD9898_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For every 1% worse the mortgage deal, you need to save roughly £15,000 on the average house price to break even.

So according to those figures when IR's rise (taking mortgage deals with them) the !!!!!! is really going to hit the fan, as the hundred's of thousands of the most vulnerable to rate rises (stuck on SVR's with no hope of remortgaging) have to find money they haven't got.

The bottom line is buying something that is too expensive because the the IR is low and the payments are low is folly, unless of course you can fix low for 25 years. Anyone know the best 25 years fix at this time ?

Of course the ponzi worked to some extent in the past when wage inflation was pushing double digits as mortgage debt shrank at a rapid rate, however it's a ponzi scheme's worst nightmare when wage inflation is half real inflation.

[Deleted User]

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No, which is why I have never said that.

I disagree when it appears to be the only reason for people unable to buy houses, in some posters minds.

Like whose?

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Surprised your list mentions all those reasons, but completely ignores prices. Actually, I'm not surprised, I take that back

The post stated it wasn't an exhaustive list.

Price was such a given I didn't think it was worth mentioning. However, you are quite right Graham price is a factor in affordability. Who'd have though it, eh? Sadly, this must be one of the most insightful things you have ever said.

[Deleted User]

AD9898 wrote: »

Of course the ponzi worked to some extent in the past when wage inflation was pushing double digits as mortgage debt shrank at a rapid rate, however it's a ponzi scheme's worst nightmare when wage inflation is half real inflation.

There seems to be a lot of people on here who don't understand inflation.

Inflation hurts everyone's pockets in the short term.
It increases asset values. Houses, gold, etc
It also reduces the true value of debt.
It steadily increases the rent people pay.
At the moment the country is in a lot of debt so we need it.

Nikel

Its no good if we dont have wage inflation to go with it.