Any views on Gulf Keystone Petroleum

lordie

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I said 300, I claim full credit Nothing solid apart from smallish news with KRG, its the central gov that matters mostly

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Gulf-Keystone-soars-digilook-577661770.html?x=0

You claim full credit for what?? Are you saying you predicted a sp of 300p?

Strange that as only 2 days ago on another thread you said that you had sold your gkp holding and were advising me to take profits at the then sp of 200 and buy HOIL instead !!

bobbyj_2

MOIL looks interesting with a very small market cap, shareprice virtually covered with cash and debt free especially given this:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Varun-sells-51-in-Madagascar-oil-block/articleshow/11272902.cms

saw it on the advfn gkp thread.

placed an order for 25000 via dma.

lordie

owains wrote: »

I sold at 177p when I thought the share price was on it's way back down... I have been kicking myself ever since! I've been waiting for a pullback to get back in but the share price just keeps rising. Am I too late to buy in at these prices?! Hmmm!

Depends if you just want to be in and out with a quick buck or are investing for the longer term. GKP`s assets are well documented so you just have to decide if you think they will eventually realise anywhere near full value.

If the answer is yes then the current sp is a steal. DYOR.

sabretoothtigger

lordie wrote: »

You claim full credit for what?? Are you saying you predicted a sp of 300p?

Strange that as only 2 days ago on another thread you said that you had sold your gkp holding and were advising me to take profits at the then sp of 200 and buy HOIL instead !!

Thats what I was referring to. I said

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I would take at least partial profits in the 200p area, then 300 and so on

So I said 300, I win :laugh: I have already sold my GKP personally and I do hold HOIL but its upto other people what they do.
I would be surprised if they got a 800p bid at this point, GKP is worth alot but it alternates between speculation and fear of almost total loss

I would trade the volatility rather then just holding, so yes sell at 300 and I sold previously at 200 area but failed to rebuy at 160 when I could have so that is my loss

If it closes above 270 today or this week even I would be more optimistic but otherwise Im expecting it to test the previous top of 202 and possibly fall lower depending on wider market or extreme regional news.

A settlement with Baghdad over the production sharing might put it over 300

lordie

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Thats what I was referring to. I said



So I said 300, I win :laugh: I have already sold my GKP personally and I do hold HOIL but its upto other people what they do.
I would be surprised if they got a 800p bid at this point, GKP is worth alot but it alternates between speculation and fear of almost total loss

I would trade the volatility rather then just holding, so yes sell at 300 and I sold previously at 200 area but failed to rebuy at 160 when I could have so that is my loss

If it closes above 270 today or this week even I would be more optimistic but otherwise Im expecting it to test the previous top of 202 and possibly fall lower depending on wider market or extreme regional news.

A settlement with Baghdad over the production sharing might put it over 300

Fair enough. Historically you may be correct as gkp usually goes on a retrace after it`s big gains. This time may be different as the chance of a t/o may keep people from bailing this time.

Today`s close although obviously down on yesterday is certainly not a collapse. Aside from a t/o rns, there are several potential sp enhancing rns`s that could be imminent.

Personally, I just hope nothing happens this week as I am most of the way through converting my shares into spreadbets. Anyone else with a reasonable holding should be thinking about there own tax avoidance plans and acting now before it is too late.

bobbyj_2

The market was well down today

MOIL finished flat

GKP down just over 2%

Some paid over 320p yesterday for GKP! That is not to say it won't return there though.

sabretoothtigger

The volume at the top of a spike is usually pretty light, more about sellers tight fisted then vast amounts of buyers. Then everyone cashs in and completes the loop
However its fairly productive still, volume high again today and offically its showing a very small gain for me over the previous close price which did fall quite a bit from the top

Just holding ground is positive, breaking 200 then holding so high is exceptional.

Anyone would think they actually had a bid, were extracting reasonable amounts of oil, making a profit, had settled threats from baghad for reduction in profit to 10p a barrel or had avoided multiple threats of war from inside and outside the country:think:
:laugh:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/9003605/Iraqs-political-troubles-drag-down-Heritage.html
HOIL downgraded, makes me think they have reached a good low in sentiment, unfortunately the contrast to GKP kinda ruins that idea

Last month, Iraq’s vice-president, Tariq al-Hashimi, denied charges of terrorism after the country’s top court issued a warrant for his arrest. The move marked an escalation of tensions between the prime minister’s Shiite Muslim-led allies and Sunni Muslim politicians, such as al-Hashimi, raising concerns the government could collapse.

That was preying on the minds of analysts at RBC Capital Markets, who downgraded Heritage Oil to “underperform” from “sector perform” given worries over the worsening political outlook in Iraq.
Hopes for oil exploration in Kurdistan, which has historically been a challenging area due to years of wrangling between Baghdad and the Kurdistan regional government, were lifted in November when Exxon-Mobil signed a major oil and gas exploration deal with the Kurdistan authorities.

“The political situation in Baghdad has started the next downturn. We believe decision- making will now slow down and in the first half of 2012 we are [once again] taking a more cautious view on Kurdistan-focused names,” they added.

ses6jwg

Not really that unusual for this stock to retrace after a good climb.

Of course if you're clever you sell at 320p and rebuy at 263p but not all of us are genisues.

I hold £4.4k at £1.01 which is looking quite healthy now - I'll be holding onto those and just see what develops. Not interested in trying to trade the spikes. I've waited 2 1/2 years for the ducks to line up like they are now.

amistupid

I was in at £1.87 in Nov 2010, but by trading have brought my average down to £1.57 then bought more on Monday at £2.11

I feel confident that there is a takeover planned and expect the shares to be worth in access of £8 within a year or two, but hey I'm an optimist.

amictus

lordie wrote: »

Depends if you just want to be in and out with a quick buck or are investing for the longer term. GKP`s assets are well documented so you just have to decide if you think they will eventually realise anywhere near full value.

If the answer is yes then the current sp is a steal. DYOR.

Well, yeah, I was in it for the long-term... but was weak and sold when I thought the share price was drifting back down to <140p. As you say, the real question is whether the true value (or near anyway) will be realised. I'd be willing to take a punt at lower prices, but have resisted at current prices.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

If it closes above 270 today or this week even I would be more optimistic but otherwise Im expecting it to test the previous top of 202 and possibly fall lower depending on wider market or extreme regional news.

I'm hoping bid rumours will fade away and the share price will drop back to a level where I'm comfortable with the risk:rearward ratio.

Interesting one to watch!