Land registry 0.2% down MOM, 1.5% UP YOY.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What have I been proven wrong on?

If it's the longer thing...don't get excited. I simply meant larger. Two words starting with the same letter, used to describe something bigger. Slip of the concentration and the wrong word was used.

I also made a spelling mistake.

spelling mistakes happen, I do it all the time.
I'll not pull you up for it.

As for Longer / Larger, I think it's another sign of you backtracking, trying to say you meant something else when you didn't.
Your obviously getting yourself into a muddle.


Here's your post again, explain how it makes sense to change longer to larger.
Clearly you were talking about a time period and therefore longer makes more sense.
You'd deserve far more credit if you simply acknowledged you were wrong instead of trying to say you meant something you didn't.
P.S. the Trend Line already caters for the peaks and troughs of the 30 year period.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What's interesting looking at the graph above is between 1990 and 91 it seemed house price falls also steadied and prices followed the trend line for a short period, before falling off again.

20 years later....same appears to be playing out again.

[STRIKE]Longer[/STRIKE] Larger time on the trend line, but also a [STRIKE]longer[/STRIKE] larger time above it previously. Maybe that means a [STRIKE]longer[/STRIKE] larger time below it this time round.

P.P.S. I actually agree there is alikely to be a longer period below the trend line.
In order to match the trend line we'd need circa 7.9% HPI and as we know, were in a stagnant period.
Going forward, in order to recover from the inflation effect may take a longer time and it's quite possible that you'll see in time a slight lowering of the trend from 2.9% to say 2.6% / 2.7%

ultrawomble

Batchy wrote: »

But do the charts bear any relationship to the real world?

Yes, because the plural of anecdote is not data.

Batchy wrote: »

You have to look at each transaction in isolation.

No, see above.

nembot

Batchy wrote: »

I think ive posted my last post on the economy/houseprice forum.

We live in hope

Batchy

nembot wrote: »

We live in hope

I only post to share experiences and knowledge (or lack of it, depending on which side of the fence you sit), if everyone see's it as an opportunity to bull bash they are wrong to do so. I was the biggest bear going for about 5 years until I brought, as every indicator worked well, prices dropped, deposit increased, inflation is high, returns are low at the bank for investments, etc, etc, etc.

Its like going to buy a car

You need a good PX
You need a good discount on the car
You need a good level of extra's (fuel, tax, mats, and whatever else takes your fancy)
You also need a good interest rate on the finance... If necessary.
You also need to be buying the right car for YOU.

There is no point getting 1k extra on the trade in, go straight to talking about monthly payments but not actually realise you could have done better elsewhere and not knowing the real price. And got a car you actually wanted.
We are talking substance over form here...

The fact is...

In the area I choose... for locality to work reasons, local knowledge for 5 years, and family commitments.

I got a house I had been waiting for, and wanted.
I got a good deal on the price
I got the right timing, to be able to spend a few months doing it up before moving in. (not price necessarily related)
I got a stamp duty exemption as a FTB
I got a council tax exemption too (for 6 months)
I got a good deal on mortgage
I got the mortgage over the term I wanted it to be
I also got a good deal on the rate following the fix... (acceptable for future, but will look to reduce, probably with an offset)
Everything im buying to do the house up is heavily discounted due to the depressed nature of retail, and shifting stock becoming more of a priority. And having time on my side to be able to research.

but hey ho, no one cares about anecdotal.

They just care about graphs they interpret incorrectly. And dont really mean diddly squat in the real world. People dont reduce their selling price on their house monthly... they might do it... every 3-6-12 months. if they start to get to desperate. When they do... then act fast, since this is when the activity picks up. And someone bowls in with an offer.

My gfs buyer come in with a deposit over 75%... so mortgage will be pennies. Not sure if they are FTBers. But there are renting in the area, and are only buying as landlord wont fix things in the house, and they are not happy, so want out quick. Fact... PEOPLE BUY JUST TO BE HAPPY... its not always financially motivated, they make decisions with the heart rather than the brain!

nembot

Was only a tongue in cheek comment batchy, understand your thoughts on the economy/house prices and you are entitled to them, regardless of my opinion.

ultrawomble

Batchy wrote: »

Fact... PEOPLE BUY JUST TO BE HAPPY... its not always financially motivated, they make decisions with the heart rather than the brain!

Oh dear.....

cepheus

The money markets were today pricing in a near 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate rise in May, up from around 40% late last week after the shock contraction in UK fourth quarter gross domestic product.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=522187&in_page_id=2#ixzz1CpCFXiUw

Thrugelmir

cepheus wrote: »

The money markets were today pricing in a near 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate rise in May, up from around 40% late last week after the shock contraction in UK fourth quarter gross domestic product.

Reading the quoted quote above was confusing.

A more accurate portrayl. From the same article.

The pound today powered to a three-month high against the dollar as more upbeat economic data raised the likelihood of a rate rise from the Bank of England.

cepheus

"Share traders are always wary of a thin market, one where there are very few transactions. The low volume of buying and selling distorts prices and means a market can keep its head above water when all the signs suggest a substantial downtrend should be emerging.

Unlike a stock market, the property market takes a long time to turn, as property is an asset that is not quickly and easily bought and sold - hence Nationwide's 'highly uncertain' outlook."

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/property-prices#ixzz1CpsgBleK

shortchanged_2

Batchy wrote: »

Fact... PEOPLE BUY JUST TO BE HAPPY... its not always financially motivated, they make decisions with the heart rather than the brain!

Problem is Batchy that's not what you usually preach.