Land registry 0.2% down MOM, 1.5% UP YOY.

AndyGuil

cepheus wrote: »

No, I have used the -0.2 per month and multiplied it by 12 = -2.4 then subtracted inflation. this equals -7.2% per annum to be exact

Admittedly any one month is not reliiable, but the last four months have been down. It's pointless using a yearly average it is too slow to be useful.

Has anyone got all the monthly data, to get a shorter moving average?

Careful just multiplying by 12. -0.2% per month is -2.37% per year. Fortunately for your calculation it rounds to -2.4%. What is the -2.4% figure anyway? YoY is 1.5%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

I'm a bit confused, Monthly Land registry figures down again and the bulls are cheering.
.

Hmmmm, I rather suspect it may have a bit to do with the following:

70% reduction in mortgage lending
Increased tax burden
Falling real wages
Increased unemployment
Austerity budget
Mortgage rationing for FTB's
And still barely out of the deepest recession in decades....

And with all that, all you get is a 0.2% fall....

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

mcc100

Batchy wrote: »

1.5% of the property value is (principle private residence) tax free gain.

And its actually earned over 10% off my initial investment whooo hooo.

Thank you Mr GB-UK.

ie, 24750 deposit, return is 1.5% of total property value ie... 2.5k (ish) thats 10% return ... NET (but only when its SOLD) but why? why would I sell?

please dont talk the inflation up, because the only hedge against inflation IMO is property... once the short term NOISE is evened out!

You are using the YOY figure of 1.5% yet you only bought in August 2010.

The monthly land registry figures since August 2010 are as follows :

Sept - 0.2
Oct - 0.6
Nov -0.9
Dec -0.2

So in the 4 months since you bought a fall of 1.9 %

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Hmmmm, I rather suspect it may have a bit to do with the following:

70% reduction in mortgage lending
Increased tax burden
Falling real wages
Increased unemployment
Austerity budget
Mortgage rationing for FTB's
And still barely out of the deepest recession in decades....

And with all that, all you get is a 0.2% fall....

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

all you get is a 0.2% fall.... So far.

cepheus

mcc100 wrote: »

You are using the YOY figure of 1.5% yet you only bought in August 2010.

The monthly land registry figures since August 2010 are as follows :

Sept - 0.2
Oct - 0.6
Nov -0.9
Dec -0.2

So in the 4 months since you bought a fall of 1.9 %

So in real terms with ~ 5% inflation, if the 4 months are representative, the housing market is falling by around 12-13% per year.

IveSeenTheLight

cepheus wrote: »

So in real terms with ~ 5% inflation, if the 4 months are representative, the housing market is falling by around 12-13% per year.

"If the 4 months are representative" - They're not.
Many experts predicted rises at the start of 2010 followed by falls in the latter part.
That's why we've had a stagnant year.

"the housing market is falling by around 12-13% per year" - "is" infers it's factual.
So can you quantify how you get to 12-13% per year with the facts we have for the previous year?

I'll grant you using "real" house prices, however we all know that nominally that can be quite different and has no real correlation when it comes to purchasing as it's the nominal figure that's needed.

FTBFun

brit1234 wrote: »

I'm a bit confused, Monthly Land registry figures down again and the bulls are cheering.

What,s going on? When the price falls get even bigger and we go year on negative are the bulls going to launch fireworks from their pent house balconies?

:rotfl:

Get ready for a year of lots more falls.

They're up in my borough again, albeit by about a tiny fraction.

What about yours?

Batchy

mcc100 wrote: »

You are using the YOY figure of 1.5% yet you only bought in August 2010.

The monthly land registry figures since August 2010 are as follows :

Sept - 0.2
Oct - 0.6
Nov -0.9
Dec -0.2

So in the 4 months since you bought a fall of 1.9 %

Quite true!

But mine would have been contributing to the drop in October/Novembers figures since it was an August sale, so by the time it gets registered at land registry and they process it in the system. How can I revalue based on 2 months? hmmm...

But to be honest, its difficult to value the property im in since it was a doer upper to live in. Ive spent a few bob on it so far, and the valuation would be significantly stronger as a result compared to other propertys, where as before it would have been weaker than other properties. Even with the falls, my gains after 6 months would be much stronger, regardless of indices changing.

In August 2012 when I get it revalued for a new mortgage I will let you know, but until then, we will have to use averages and try to limit the noise.

By then my 85% deal should be 50%, and that doesnt have a great deal to do with gaining value thats about, paying down HARD, and putting in some equity gained from the missis selling her property.

Either that or do an offset, based on around 4% mortgage interest, it will give a greater return net than any ISA currently.

Batchy

cepheus wrote: »

So in real terms with ~ 5% inflation, if the 4 months are representative, the housing market is falling by around 12-13% per year.

Dont be surprised when they start going up by 10%.
Noise in the figures is all a part of property, its ridiculous and does need stability but it never happens.

You can't have your cake and eat it all the time.

If a property isnt falling in value and your wages arnt increasing ... then all it means is your affordability calculation gets weaker, since your cost of living increases and therefore you ability to get finance becomes weaker. Therefore meaning your ability to buy a property at the top of your affordability last year, this year is diminished.

Didnt you know, mortgage companies arnt interested in gross earnings... they want debt free, other than mortgage. They want and income and expenditure statement, to see what your outgoings are... to see if your realistic and what you can afford, how many dependants (take off 150pm for each one) where your deposit is coming from? Mom and Dad? are you going to put in contingency to pay them back monthly etc.

You can't just include RPI and think ... job done ... house prices are falling... cause unless you see price falls it doesnt make any difference as your buying power hasnt increased unless you have had payrises.

Batchy

mcc100 wrote: »

You are using the YOY figure of 1.5% yet you only bought in August 2010.

The monthly land registry figures since August 2010 are as follows :

Sept - 0.2
Oct - 0.6
Nov -0.9
Dec -0.2

So in the 4 months since you bought a fall of 1.9 %

PS, If you want to look at just my property and dates exactly, then lets look at the area that it is in. If you look at rightmoves Jan figures you will see west midlands prices increased 10% Year on Year, take 5 months of that which is significantly more than 1.5%.

Cheers