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Hometrack: Supply falling off a cliff....

1235

Comments

  • Mallotum_X
    Mallotum_X Posts: 2,591 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    We dont yet know how January supply figures affected the market though, thats why there is speculation.

    Properties dont come on to the market sell and complete all in one month. We havent had the January price data yet, the January supply will/(may?) be sold over the next few weeks and months.

    A reduced supply of anything we know would generally have an upward presure on prices, so if prices continue to fall with a restricted supply then this would suggest prices with a normal supply would be even lower, and many may have a nasty shock when they decide to stop waiting to put the house up for sale.
  • julieq
    julieq Posts: 2,603 Forumite
    IronWolf wrote: »
    Is everyone in this thread being a bit thick? Why are you speculating on how this affects price? We KNOW how it affected price

    Supply went down 5.4%
    Demand changed, impossible to quantify from what we're given

    We KNOW that prices dropped 0.5% as a result. Whats the debate about?

    I love it when people tell other people they're being a bit thick, then miss the point spectacularly themselves.

    Supply isn't a tap, it's a pipeline. The effects of changes in supply come out at some later point in time as people consume the existing contents of the pipe.

    The changes in price most recently are due to selling and purchasing decisions made some months ago, when prices appeared to be rising or stable. As a result more was pumped into the pipeline, which is why competition for purchases has fallen and prices have dropped. As a response to that, supply has been reduced and we'll see the effects of that in a few months time.

    That doesn't affect demand for housing which is essentially a function of the differential between household creation and home building. Which is why rents are going up and why being a landlord is essentially a one way bet at present.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    IronWolf wrote: »
    We KNOW that prices dropped 0.5% as a result. Whats the debate about?

    It;s basically about the use of smoke and mirrors, and trying to switch anything into positive territory.

    Basically.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    julieq wrote: »
    Supply isn't a tap, it's a pipeline. The effects of changes in supply come out at some later point in time as people consume the existing contents of the pipe.

    This is delicious.

    Pipeline?

    If it was a pipeline, Hamish wouldnt be getting over excited at the prospect of sellers pulling their houses off the market.

    With a pipeline, what goes in one end, has to come out the other, unless you have taps on the way to restrict the flow.

    Therefore, on your basis, from what you are saying (i.e. no taps, has to be consumed), once a house is on the market, it has to stay there until it is bought (consumed).

    As Hamish & Co are getting over excited about pulling houses OUT of this so called pipeline, there has to be taps, in order to reduce the contents of the pipe, and reduce what comes out of the end for buyers to "consume".

    Absolutely delicious post though. Especially the put down before that rot started. I really don't know how people can be so blinded and where they actually get this stuff from.
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    julieq wrote: »
    Supply isn't a tap, it's a pipeline. The effects of changes in supply come out at some later point in time as people consume the existing contents of the pipe.

    What if the pipeline has a leak ?

    What if the pipeline is a sewer pipe ?
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • IronWolf wrote: »
    Is everyone in this thread being a bit thick? Why are you speculating on how this affects price? We KNOW how it affected price

    Supply went down 5.4%
    Demand changed, impossible to quantify from what we're given

    We KNOW that prices dropped 0.5% as a result. Whats the debate about?

    I don't think they are being thick - perhaps a little blinkered.

    Hometrack have produced data and have been kind enough to provide conclusions based on this. As it is their data, I guess their conclusions are, at the very least, based on a full understanding of all the figures.

    Some on this thread have taken a couple of the figures (which they accept they do not have a full understanding of), have given their own interpretation of what they mean and come to their own conclusions.

    I suppose it is up to the individual to decide what weight to give to each interpretation of the data.
  • ukcarper wrote: »
    True but the figures are meaningless without the actual figures, after all some of the properties not for sale must have been sold therefore it follows that some of the previous buyers are no longer looking. We are not comparing like for like you really need to know total number of buyers compared to total number of sellers.

    Said the same earlier
    Problem is, the figure seems unnavailable
    http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20110127.cfm

    It's a survey of over 5,000 EA's

    It's also worth considering the dataset question being asked

    Demand - "% change in new buyers registering with agents", does not tell you how much demand there is, just that there are fewer "new buyers" registereing, nothing about the level of demand.

    Supply - "% change in volume of property listings", is actually the number of properties listed.

    You can;t really compare the two
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • Generali wrote: »
    Percentage of previous value. They don't provide that data.

    My point really was that if you want to make a claim that supply has fallen off a cliff (or more accurately a proxy for supply) then it's worth also looking at the equivalent proxy for demand.

    It's not the same proxy though is it.

    One is for supply and one is for new additions to demand.
    The demand in this survey is not looking at total demand.
    Indeed the survey indicates the demand is rising
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • myhouse_2
    myhouse_2 Posts: 553 Forumite
    500 Posts
    Irrespective of the economic conditions, a collapse in supply is only temporary - it MUST come up at some point, though that could be a year away.
  • julieq wrote: »
    <snip>
    Which is why rents are going up and why being a landlord is essentially a one way bet at present.

    If rents start going down (or mortgage costs go up), then it can never have been a one way bet initially, surely?

    So I don't think the "at present" bit makes sense.
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