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Debate House Prices
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Hometrack: Supply falling off a cliff....
Comments
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epic fail
suppose there are 100 houses on the market last month, and supply drops 5.4%. There are now 95 houses on the market by and large.
Suppose there are 110 buyers. Demand drops by 9.5%, there are now 99 buyers.
Demand is still outstripping supply. Like musical chairs.
UK supply and demand is based on household creation rates and home creation rates in any case, not registrations with estate agents.
The first part is right i.e. 5.6% less properties for sale. But it doesn’t say that they are 9.5% fewer buyers it just says there were 9.5% less new buyers, as we don’t now how many of the old buyers are still looking the figures are meaningless.0 -
I'm not sure what point you're making, but if it's that net homes are created by people moving in together, it's clearly mistaken as the statistics show net household creation to be massively greater than home creation.
But wouldn't that mean that there'd be a rental drought - if a household can't afford to buy they'd be renting.0 -
ultrawomble wrote: »But wouldn't that mean that there'd be a rental drought - if a household can't afford to buy they'd be renting.
Which is why average rents soared to a new peak last year, and are projected to increase again this year.
And rents are now more expensive than a mortgage payment in 80% of the UK.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Which is why average rents soared to a new peak last year, and are projected to increase again this year.
And rents are now more expensive than a mortgage payment in 80% of the UK.
Then that should be excellent news for you LL types. You should be really pleased that mortgage rationing is present - even better if it gets even tighter, no?0 -
ultrawomble wrote: »Then that should be excellent news for you LL types. You should be really pleased that mortgage rationing is present - even better if it gets even tighter, no?
Short term income may be up but his pension... I mean property is suffering.Have my first business premises (+4th business) 01/11/2017
Quit day job to run 3 businesses 08/02/2017
Started third business 25/06/2016
Son born 13/09/2015
Started a second business 03/08/2013
Officially the owner of my own business since 13/01/20120 -
Except he isn't a LL.
Still.This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
Have my first business premises (+4th business) 01/11/2017
Quit day job to run 3 businesses 08/02/2017
Started third business 25/06/2016
Son born 13/09/2015
Started a second business 03/08/2013
Officially the owner of my own business since 13/01/20120 -
The trouble is what this survey doesnt really show is how many people would like to sell but for whatever reason are holding off.
A reduced supply [of houses for sale] compared to normal will push up the price of the houses that are sold. However to then infer that the value of the houses not being offered for sale is also held up doesnt really paint a full picture.
If these other properties (pent up supply as some like to call it) came on to the market then what happens next? Unless there was a boost in demand then one would expect the sales price of this next wave of houses to fall.
Its only the smart movers who jump in first and get sold now who benefit from any reduced supply, as always with markets the ones that simply follow will surely lose out.
Without an additional survey to try and understand how many people are holding off and why then this is simply a fairly meaningless stat.0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Percentages of what value?
Percentages mean nothing if you don;t know what it's a percentage of.
e.g. Property supply could have dropped 5.4% out of 200,000, meaning 10,800 fewer properties.
Demand could have fallen 9.5% of 100,000, meaning that there are 9,500 fewer potential buyers.
**NOTE** figures used above are simply used as an example and not of exact data
Percentage of previous value. They don't provide that data.
My point really was that if you want to make a claim that supply has fallen off a cliff (or more accurately a proxy for supply) then it's worth also looking at the equivalent proxy for demand.0 -
Is everyone in this thread being a bit thick? Why are you speculating on how this affects price? We KNOW how it affected price
Supply went down 5.4%
Demand changed, impossible to quantify from what we're given
We KNOW that prices dropped 0.5% as a result. Whats the debate about?Faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.0
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