Hometrack: Supply falling off a cliff....

wherediditallgothen

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Problem is, the figure seems unnavailable
http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20110127.cfm

It's a survey of over 5,000 EA's

It's also worth considering the dataset question being asked

Demand - "% change in new buyers registering with agents", does not tell you how much demand there is, just that there are fewer "new buyers" registereing, nothing about the level of demand.

Supply - "% change in volume of property listings", is actually the number of properties listed.

You can;t really compare the two

Nope the problem seems to me that YOU (and others) are unwilling to compare the two.

Percy1983

lostinrates wrote: »

My parents, and a few of their friends on the market have removed from market to relaunch in spring. They see it as better than sitting on the market ATM.

This may actually be a good tactic, right now I am keeping an eye on how long properties have been listed for and the longer its been up the lower my initial offer will be.

I may not notice and think its new listing if they do that, its lamost certain I wouldn't notice at the minute as there is a lot up for sale in the areas I am looking at.

IronWolf

The figures speak for themselves, sales down 13.2%, so as you can see increase in supply has not done anything to stop the falling prices.


Sluggish start for housing market in 2011
Concern over higher interest rates to keep demand subdued
By Richard Donnell, Director of Research, Hometrack Summary

Monthly price change (%) -0.5
% change in new buyers registering with agents -9.5
% change in volume of property listings -5.4
% change in sales agreed -13.2
Average time on the market (weeks) 10.2
% of the asking price being achieved 91.9
http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20110127.cfm

julieq

"increase in supply"? You mean decrease presumably, and it wouldn't be expected to feed through for a while anyway.

We're in a period of oscillation at the moment, not the next leg down, not the start of a new boom. Supply is testing demand, if demand isn't there, supply is removed. As the fundamentals tell us that there are more households created than houses created, demand must inevitably outstrip supply either for purchases or for rental. Rental is more likely when there is mortgage rationing, hence you'd expect rents to be increasing.

Which they are.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Nice work.

Supply dropped 5.4%.

Demand dropped 9.5%

Supply outweighs demand this month.

Prices dropped too.

Noticed your down to quoting one single sentence now

Wow. Hamish suddenly decides his own thread is distinctly uninteresting shocker.

Couldn't have seen that coming.

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Nice work.

Supply dropped 5.4%.

Demand dropped 9.5%

Supply outweighs demand this month.

Prices dropped too.

Noticed your down to quoting one single sentence now

epic fail

suppose there are 100 houses on the market last month, and supply drops 5.4%. There are now 95 houses on the market by and large.

Suppose there are 110 buyers. Demand drops by 9.5%, there are now 99 buyers.

Demand is still outstripping supply. Like musical chairs.

UK supply and demand is based on household creation rates and home creation rates in any case, not registrations with estate agents.

ultrawomble

julieq wrote: »

UK supply and demand is based on household creation rates and home creation rates in any case, not registrations with estate agents.

Is that something like 2 single people, each with their own pad, moving in together - so freeing up a residence for use by others?

abaxas

julieq wrote: »

epic fail

suppose there are 100 houses on the market last month, and supply drops 5.4%. There are now 95 houses on the market by and large.

Suppose there are 110 buyers. Demand drops by 9.5%, there are now 99 buyers.

Demand is still outstripping supply. Like musical chairs.

UK supply and demand is based on household creation rates and home creation rates in any case, not registrations with estate agents.

Might be 'round your way' but that is not representative of the whole market.

Up here in the North we are still waiting for out first house sale of 2011 :P

julieq

ultrawomble wrote: »

Is that something like 2 single people, each with their own pad, moving in together - so freeing up a residence for use by others?

I'm not sure what point you're making, but if it's that net homes are created by people moving in together, it's clearly mistaken as the statistics show net household creation to be massively greater than home creation.

tyllwyd

I thought that back in October the problem was going to be that the market was being flooded with new properties?
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=516266&in_page_id=57
That seems to have faded away without much of a fuss.