QLD Floods and the impact on Local and Intl Economies

Generali

The businesses closed early in Brisbane CBD to let people home so naturally the transport infrastructure struggled as people that would normally be going home over the course of several hours left in an hour.

The news from the Maryborough area isn't great from what I can see but could be a lot worse in the circumstances.

The road is cut off north of Gympie so pretty much nothing is coming through from that direction. As that's where the fuel comes from there are reports of petrol shortages.

Granville has been isolated for some time and there isn't much food left in the shops. Things aren't great there from the sounds of things but people are being evacuated, most often by individuals in private boats. There haven't been flash floods or anything likely to cause loss of life and the air ambos can get through for emergency cases. It seems that there was a lull yesterday and so water tankers and medical crews have been sent in to the town. Granville seems to be the first place in the region to get cut off whenever it rains.

The Mary River has started rising again but isn't expected to reach previous peaks as the worst of the weather is further south now.

Maryborough seems to be seen as a safe haven despite being on the river. Being a larger town it has greater food stocks which combined with less panic buying means that food supplies are ok. The Woolies is running off a generator which could become a problem but isn't right now. Anyone being evacuated is being evacuated to there so it's clearly seen by authorities and locals as the safest place to be.

There are guys out on rural properties that have been cut off for a week or more now. They expect that sort of thing and will have stores of food and clean drinking water.

Generali

Gympie was in a right state on Sunday but the waters are receding quickly now. The big problems really are that the rain keeps falling and all the ways of containing it are full so it's just spilling out where it can and that roads are being damaged so it's getting harder to take advantage of breaks in the weather.

Generali

There's a Facebook page that might help:

http://www.facebook.com/queenslandflood#!/queenslandflood?v=app_2373072738

Really2

I hear steel production is going to be trimmed for a few years. I should imagine it has pretty much stopped mining also.

I know Aus has been teetering on the edge with house prices etc. Do you think this could be the final straw that will start some falls? (EG people may want to leave queensland etc.)

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

I hear steel production is going to be trimmed for a few years. I should imagine it has pretty much stopped mining also.

I know Aus has been teetering on the edge with house prices etc. Do you think this could be the final straw that will start some falls? (EG people may want to leave queensland etc.)

Even if they are mining I don't see it getting to the ports so there will be a definite economic impact. Reduced economic activity may mean lower house prices I guess.

The thing is, Queensland is basically throwing food, coal and iron out to Asia as fast as it can so fundamentally as long as the customers have the money, Queensland has the products.

There was a bloke on the news who sat on the roof of his house as it was the only bit above water. It floated about 400m away from its starting point. I guess it's fair to say that house is probably worth less than it was. However, employment is high and if you've got a job in the mines you're very likely to have good money coming in.

In Australia you live with some of the nastier stuff nature can throw at you so you expect it. Even in fairly central Sydney, I live close enough to one of the National Parks that at some point I'll be evacuated.

There are 3 things likely to make house prices fall in Australia:

- China buying less from Australia (possible)
- Inflation forcing up interest rates (quite likely given that it's already happening)
- Changes to the tax code making leveraged investment less attractive (you can offset losses from BTL against your income tax).

vivatifosi

Really2 wrote: »

I know Aus has been teetering on the edge with house prices etc. Do you think this could be the final straw that will start some falls? (EG people may want to leave queensland etc.)

The thing with the prices in the areas that are flooded is that they are already cheaper than a lot of the bigger, Metropolitan areas. You can easily get a house on a big plot for less than £100k, which would be difficult in the cities. There are jobs too. Plus if you have a Queenslander, once the floods are over, you can have the house put on a truck and moved to a different plot. With the exception of places like Brisbane and the Gold Coast, there's a lot of room in Qld to manouvre around without leaving the state. Besides, Queenslanders find places like Sydney far too cold!

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

The thing with the prices in the areas that are flooded is that they are already cheaper than a lot of the bigger, Metropolitan areas. You can easily get a house on a big plot for less than £100k, which would be difficult in the cities. There are jobs too. Plus if you have a Queenslander, once the floods are over, you can have the house put on a truck and moved to a different plot. With the exception of places like Brisbane and the Gold Coast, there's a lot of room in Qld to manouvre around without leaving the state. Besides, Queenslanders find places like Sydney far too cold!

My mate bought a Queenslander, cut it off its stilts and had it driven to a farm in NSW and then rented it out as a BTL. He only bought the house, not the land it had been standing on. I think it cost about $3,000 although you can get them for nothing if you look around.

Moving it, putting it back together (they sawed it in half to move it) and connecting it to utilities cost a few 10s of thousands.

vivatifosi

I'd love a Queenslander, but I think the cost of shipping one to Hertfordshire would be prohibitive! I dread to think what 1.3m of rain on a tin roof sounds like though.

michaels

Half a house would do fine for my extension and the whole thing could be done in a couple of days (excluding shipping time) - do you think the planners would go for it? Would it be warm in the winter?!

vivatifosi wrote: »

I'd love a Queenslander, but I think the cost of shipping one to Hertfordshire would be prohibitive! I dread to think what 1.3m of rain on a tin roof sounds like though.

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

I'd love a Queenslander, but I think the cost of shipping one to Hertfordshire would be prohibitive! I dread to think what 1.3m of rain on a tin roof sounds like though.

We've got a tin roof and a 'gentle' NSW storm is enough for us to turn the TV off and go out onto the back stoop. You can't hear it so you might as well laugh at each other running out to pick up toys and stuff out the back and coming back soaked.

It's gotta get a bit maddening after a few weeks of it. I hadn't really thought of that.

michaels

More serriously is the impact big enough to affect world coal, ore and steel prices and if so how will this play out - similar to the impact of rising oil? How about for China - possibly a big enough impact to push them in to worrying levels of inflation and thus monetary tightening - can they risk the resulting unemployment politically?