Halifax December 2010 MoM -1.3% QoQ -0.9% YoY -1.6%

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you stick to the index people are actually discussing, it does kinda help...though doesn't help you show stagnation, I agree.

Another day, another stagnation argument.

Reading also helps, the halifax is on that graph I posted.

So good try GD, but a big fail again to get me to argue, have a little peak again.

The Halifax is the line the same coulour as the Key on the left. Glad I can help.:)

heres the source by the way, http://www.houseprices.uk.net/ they do lots of nice graphs.


But as I said earlier in the thread, I do not expect stagnant YoY prices this year, I did last year though.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Reading also helps, the halifax is on that graph I posted.

So good try GD, but a big fail again to get me to argue, have a little peak again.

The Halifax may well be. But the 1 year you were describing as stagnation has turned into 10 years.

Not the year we are actually discussing

Am I actually allowed to comment when you post your wild innacuracies and goalpost moving, or will you just accuse me of trying to start an argument everytime I pick you up on your wild innacuraccies?

The graph isn't even complete. I mean, come on.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The Halifax may well be. But the 1 year you were describing as stagnation has turned into 10 years.

I have only said I expected prices to be the same as the end of 2009 for 2010.

I have said I expect prices to be 5% - 7% lower this year than Dec 2010.

So not a clue what you are on about, 2 years is the minimum graph you can do on that site (it is posted above).

Where exactly have I talked about 10 years of stagnation? Stagnation is relative to past HPI is it not.

stagnation cant be seen as a short term thing (MoM) it is a long term view, I call the period of 1992 to 1996 nominaly stagnant, in your view it would be volatile as it goes up and down from month to month.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

I have only said I expected prices to be the same as the end of 2009 for 2010.

I have said I expect prices to be 5% - 7% lower this year than Dec 2010.

So not a clue what you are on about, 2 years is the minimum graph you can do on that site.

I've edited, as I read it wrong. Still doesn't make much difference if it's 10 or 3. You can't talk about 1 year and then use previous years to say it stagnated this year.

Especially on a graph which only shows 6 months of the year you are talking about

The_Fox_3

Really2 wrote: »

Well likewise you could still say they are a bit less than Jan 09 but higher than Dec 08.

Or the same as May 05.

They have to fall another £8K on this index to be as low as April 2009 the most recent low.

Isolated months can make interesting reading either way.

Or you could even say that there was a absolutely classical example of a dead cat bounce:)

GDB2222

Generali wrote: »

Generali says:

- Monthly data is just noise

It's interesting that monthly data is now 'just noise'. In the past, when prices were rising, everybody just used the December 2009 to December 2010 change as the y-o-y figure. Incidentally, that is -3.4% according to the Halifax. Now we suddenly have to use 3 months averages. Is that spin, to show a smaller drop?

This is how Halifax show the figures in their press release - note the bolding:

On an annual basis, prices in December were 1.6% lower as measured by the average for the latest three months against the same period a year earlier. Prices in December alone were 3.4% lower than in December 2009.

Well, we'll confirm if it's spin when there's yet another change in the presentation in a few months time.

Really2

The_Fox wrote: »

Or you could even say that there was a absolutely classical example of a dead cat bounce:)

Like the ones in the last two crashes?
Lots of people thought prices thought prices would fall like the previous crash. They just failed to understand the nationwide "Real House Prices" graph.
I would say our crash will look fairly similar to the 90's graph in nominal terms overlayed.

IMHO their wont be a big next leg down, prices will come down to their around their previous low in 2009 and sit around or slight nominal gains but real term losses for a you few years.

Batchy

seriously guys, gals, you really need to stop worrying about the following:-

-Indices
-Real falls
-Nominal falls
-HPI
-Month on Month increases
-Year on year increases

In the real world, people are just living, working, paying their mortgage, or struggling to get one brought, for any price. As there just isnt really the kind of availability of mortgages that the majority of people want.

What you really need to do, instead of installing property bee, or scanning houseprices.co.uk, is to speak to agents get viewings and be a little cheeky with your offer, its a lot more fun that waiting for them to knock £700pm off the price, that you are spending on rent.

What you really need to worry about is:-

Size of your DEPOSIT
How you can make your DEPOSIT bigger, quicker, with no risk, or a little risk.
How you can clean up your credit report.
How can you earn more cash
How can you spend less
Get some cash back
Pay off your mortgage
Offset
What will interest rates be in , 2 years, 5 years 10 years?
Where do I want to live
Where can I live
Will I have kids, dependants, or other large expenses that will influence my income/expenses
Will I have a job in 12 months
Will I have any customers/ work in 12 months.
How safe is my deposit
HOW HAPPY AM I?

many more things to worry about... for most of you who havent brought for the last 10 years, stop justifying it, there have been plenty of oportunities, just because you thought there would be mortgage availability of 100% LTV following 25% falls, no one blames you for not being able to save a substantial deposit to be able to buy now. Just carry on living, and try to save a bit as you go, im sure one day you can buy cash... eventually... something...

People are having a hissy fit over these figures, when in 2009 it was the last month of a total stamp duty exemption. Its not really comparing like for like... this year it was a FTB stamp duty exemption, for which according to most, FTBs cannot get a mortgage, and even when they can account for 10% of the market, and generally buy cheap propertys, which when you average out the chain free FTBs who are buying would SKEW the average down anyway!!!!!... compared to 100% availability of the stamp duty exemption the year before.

You guys need to be realistic

if you tracked a property in 2007...

Im sure it would have fell about 15% to 2008
then since 2008 it may have fell another 5% MAX.
Then since then, sellers are holding their own and still waiting, they have a cheap mortgage... THEY CAN

AD9898_2

Surely guys any 'talking up' of prices is irrelevant whilst approvals are approx 40% of their 2 decade average ? The market is dead.

wotsthat

AD9898 wrote: »

Surely guys any 'talking up' of prices is irrelevant whilst approvals are approx 40% of their 2 decade average ? The market is dead.

Wouldn't dead be defined as somewhat closer to 0%?