Rightmove Index for December 2010, -3.0%

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Don't be silly Graham.

It is a barometer of direction

They are your own words Hamish. Not mine.

Though as I said, I thought it may have changed. I am of course the silly one here.

it is a good barometer of sentiment

It is a barometer of direction

My position on this is 100% consistent.

Aye.

I'd actually agree, it IS a good indicator of sentiment. Shame you decided to try and make something out of it with chucky when I said that....should I link that too? As your consistency took a wrong turn there, too, it seems?

smeagold

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Could have fooled you....

Putting that aside, I've frequently pointed out that asking prices are not sold prices.

And the point remains a 6% drop in asking prices will almost cerrtainly not translate to a 6% fall in sold prices.

Apparently asking prices are about 25% above selling prices.
or didn't you get the memo?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I thought it may have changed.

Obviously not.

Lets compare the two statements.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Whilst it does look like prices will continue drifting gently downwards over the next few months, there is no direct correlation between asking prices and sold prices in terms of percentage increase or decrease.
.

And..

And whilst it's not indicative of achieved prices, it is a good barometer of sentiment in the market.

Perhaps you'd care to explain the contradiction?

I've stated clearly that there is no direct correlation between percentage terms drops in rightmove and sold prices.

I've also stated clearly I expect prices to drift down gently over the next few months.

And that rightmove can be a good barometer.

None of these things are incorrect, and I haven't changed my mind on any of them.

I am of course the silly one here.

Indeed.

Graham_Devon

It's the sentiment Hamish. That's the key.

And the huge part...I did find that mildly amusing.

Is this 3% huge?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Anyways.

Minimum 6% drop all around for Dec/Jan/Feb (Halifax, Nationwide & Land Reg)

Based on the fact that everyone that wanted to be into their bigger, more expensive house by xmas already is......


And the more expensive house sales are dropping in volume forcing down the average.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

smeagold wrote: »

Apparently asking prices are about 25% above selling prices. or didn't you get the memo?

No they aren't.

Different indices use different methodology. Some are median, some are mean. Some mix adjust, some don't.

You can't just compare the average price on rightmove to the average price on haliwide.

The average price varies by many tens of thousands of pounds between the different indices. 160K or so on haliwide, more like 220K on others.

the.ciscokid

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A couple of interesting excerpts:

<snip>

How about this one, if we are going to cherry pick:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5j6nBHUZyUd0XFjFvcksBqNbs5ezg?docId=N0101851292157045205A

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said: "The fact that many would-be buyers do not have the ability to proceed, and some homeowners may find themselves in a position where they are forced to sell, drives prices down.
"These negative factors are likely to outweigh the positive price pressures of pent-up demand for housing and a price under-pinning shortage of quality homes in popular locations."

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No they aren't.

Different indices use different methodology. Some are median, some are mean. Some mix adjust, some don't.

You can't just compare the average price on rightmove to the average price on haliwide.

The average price varies by many tens of thousands of pounds between the different indices. 160K or so on haliwide, more like 220K on others.

Yes you can, it's all about sentiment and trend Hamish:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/hpuk/house_price_server.php?width=768&height=576&year_min=2001&year_max=2010&type=price&flag_q=0&flag_nw=1&flag_hf=1&flag_rm=1&flag_ft=1&flag_lr=1&flag_o=1&flag_ma=0&lag_yoy=0&lag_qoq=0&lag_odpm=1&leg_pos=0&flag_logy=0

GeneHunt_2

I love this bit

2011 a good year for: Landlords, job secure equity blessed trader uppers and deposit-rich·
2011 a bad year for: Forced sellers, deposit and equity poor, tenants and first-time buyers

A nice summary of 2011 I think:)

Batchy

Lets just get something straight!

Rightmove - dont work on house price movements, they work on categories and averages, and they do include repossessions.
Halifax doesn't include anything as they dont provide anyone with mortgages any more, so havent got any figures.
Nationwide is the same as halifax.
Land registry excludes repossessions and only compares prices for houses which have a sold price of more than one time within the period they can establish the price.

So, out of all the indices, the only one that really means what most house owners what to hear is the land registry, like it or love it, its a slow to react but factually the most important.

Rightmove is very volotile, and even when some drops 20k, it could still be 20k above the normal selling price for the area, when the next month they pull it cause it still hasnt sold.

Land registry doesnt have this volitility as its actually HAPPENED sales, its slow as its based upon completion and because they are in the hands of solicitors filing things on time.

Batchy

sorry just noticed

december 2009 to december 2010 annual price movement + 0.4%.

Is this officially stagnation?