Rightmove Index for December 2010, -3.0%

1984ReturnsForReal_2

The_Fox wrote: »

I agree.

It is going to take years to balance things out again, a sharp fast shock in prices just is not going to happen.

What odds will you give me on 5% over 3 months?

Edit: Make that 6%

martinbuckley

Strange that Hamish missed this stat when he was busy quoting all the other ones.

The_Fox_3

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

What odds will you give me on 5% over 3 months?

Edit: Make that 6%

using what as a marker, Haliwide?

Prices need to lose 30% to get back to fair value, truth is they won't lose more than 10% over the next 3 to 4 years

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

What odds will you give me on 5% over 3 months?

Edit: Make that 6%

Whilst it does look like prices will continue drifting gently downwards over the next few months, there is no direct correlation between asking prices and sold prices in terms of percentage increase or decrease.

Rightmove has frequently seen asking prices fall when actual sold prices increased, and vice versa.

What happens next to sold prices is dependant on supply. It has already started to drop, we'll see how much further and faster that happens soon enough.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

The_Fox wrote: »

using what as a marker, Haliwide?

Prices need to lose 30% to get back to fair value, truth is they won't lose more than 10% over the next 3 to 4 years

Take your pick.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

there is no direct correlation between asking prices and sold prices

Really Hamish?


You could of bloody well fooled me the way you have been ramming asking prices down peoples necks for the last 9 months.

Can't do that so much now though, thank God.

Like I said to you before, Scotland is a lagging indicator.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A couple of interesting excerpts:

2011 a good year for: Landlords, job secure equity blessed trader uppers and deposit-rich

2011 a bad year for: Forced sellers, deposit and equity poor, tenants and first-time buyers

And....

This supports our expectation that for many would-be sellers the sums simply won’t stack up to allow them to market during 2011.

There is also some evidence of this in average unsold stock per estate agency branch, which has fallen from 77 to 74.

Understandably picky buyers will choose the better properties in the better locations, leading to similar
quality stock shortages that were experienced in 2009. This is likely to underpin prices in the south, with
London proving to be the most resilient region.

The shortage in popular areas will be exacerbated as existing owners will decline to move due to lack of choice, as well as financial restrictions hindering their ability to trade up. The chronic lack of new build activity will also limit new supply.

Shipside comments: “Trader-uppers have been denied their usual price gains over the last few years, and
their lack of equity growth will be compounded by lenders unwillingness to fund their five-yearly move.

These regular movers of yester-year will be unable to come to market, and are likely to be joined in their
impasse by those that can afford to trade up but are reluctant to market as they see very few properties with the wow factor.

The pent-up demand for housing will be fit to burst its banks if and when lenders return to funding the needs of growing families and growth in household numbers.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Really Hamish?


You could of bloody well fooled me the way you have been ramming asking prices down peoples necks for the last 9 months.

Can't do that so much now though, thank God.

Like I said to you before, Scotland is a lagging indicator.

Could have fooled you....

Putting that aside, I've frequently pointed out that asking prices are not sold prices.

And the point remains a 6% drop in asking prices will almost cerrtainly not translate to a 6% fall in sold prices.

Graham_Devon

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Really Hamish?


You could of bloody well fooled me the way you have been ramming asking prices down peoples necks for the last 9 months.

Can't do that so much now though, thank God.

Like I said to you before, Scotland is a lagging indicator.

This is what Hamish has to say about Rightmove...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=26098293&postcount=6

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Rightmove October +2.8%, London records biggest ever indice rise at 6.5%

Thats huge....

And whilst it's not indicative of achieved prices, it is a good barometer of sentiment in the market.

Dunno if he's changed stance now. Afterall, that was +2.8%....AND huge.

It's now -3%, so I take it thats "huge-er".

I also take it, it's a good barometer of sentiment in the market, especially when you look over 6 months, and 5 are falling?

I dunno though....I do have a felling all of that will have changed.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

This is what Hamish has to say about Rightmove...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=26098293&postcount=6



Dunno if he's changed stance now. Afterall, that was +2.8%....AND huge.

It's now -3%, so I take it thats "huge-er".

I also take it, it's a good barometer of sentiment in the market, especially when you look over 6 months, and 5 are falling?

I dunno though....I do have a felling all of that will have changed.

Don't be silly Graham.

It is a barometer of direction, but there is no direct correlation between percentage changes on rightmove and actual sold prices.

There have been plenty of times when rightmove has dropped, and actual sold prices have risen. And vice versa.

My position on this is 100% consistent.