Debate House Prices
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Nationwide November -0.3% MoM
Comments
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Blacklight wrote: »What a bitter little man you must be.
The bitter thing is locked in..... (Of course buying your landlord a house will do that.)
But I always assumed it was just another carolt sockpuppet, so not sure about the "man" thing.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Dont know why you are so excited Hamish. The non seasonally adjusted fall is -0.6% compared to SA of -0.3%. If we look at the non seasonally adjusted quarterly figure, it just gets more and more interesting. The 3 month on 3 month NSA figure is actually -2.26% up from -2.16% last month. This would suggest that the crash is not slowing down, but actually gathering momentum0
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angrypirate wrote: »Dont know why you are so excited Hamish. The non seasonally adjusted fall is -0.6% compared to SA of -0.3%. If we look at the non seasonally adjusted quarterly figure, it just gets more and more interesting. The 3 month on 3 month NSA figure is actually -2.26% up from -2.16% last month. This would suggest that the crash is not slowing down, but actually gathering momentum
I take it you are aware they seasonally adjust for a reason.....
It's not actually just a big bull conspiracy.;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Lowest approvals in decades, lowest base rate in 300 years and yet still prices fall, amazing.
Surely only low IRs are the only lifeline that is halting literally millions of forced sellers which would bring about a crash that would make Ireland's property market look like a good investment.Have owned outright since Sept 2009, however I'm of the firm belief that high prices are a cancer on society, they have sucked money out of the economy, handing it to banks who've squandered it.0 -
You are saying that the crash is slowing down. Im merely pointing out that the raw data may suggest otherwise.
The Nationwide never make public their details on how they carry out their seasonal adjustment. Sometimes it supports the bulls argument for a recovery, sometimes the bears argument for a crash.
Also, if you look at the seasonal adjustment from year to year, there is no real consistency in the amount of adjustment they do. Yes, they tend to always adjust the same months in the same direction, but some years they adjust more than others. In any consecutive 12 months period the seasonal adjustment should always sum up to zero. The truth - the last time it summed up to zero was December 2006. If you dont believe me, check it yourself. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/Monthly.xls0 -
Blacklight wrote: »Interesting that this account only surfaces when there's news of falling house prices. What a bitter individual you must be.
It's also noteworthy that 50% off in nominal terms by December 2010 has now turned into 'HAH 19% lower in real terms over the last 3 years!'
What a bitter little man you must be.
personal insults says it all
IMHO the market is overvalued and has been for some time, if you feel you need to hurl insults because you interpreted the data differently then maybe you should look at yourself.
The only thing stopping people from sinking in their own debt is low base rates and even this looks to be now failing.:cool:
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Whether the market is going up or down, you would expect the rate of increase/decline to vary, therefore to use a change from -1.5 to -1.3 to show that the market is recovering is highly deceptive.
How can Nationwide determine the flow of new property is slowing when it's now December? November levels bear no resemblance to spring levels.
Clutching at straws.
Sounds like you are doing a bit of that straw clutching
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
The bigger falls will come but what is more important is a continuing trend down. The housing market is like a oil tanker, slow to initially turn but soon gains speed.:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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Things seem to still be going in the right direction which is nice, as much as I do see the point of seasonal adjustment are people not buying because its cold or because prices are dropping? likewise once it warms up will those same people suddenly decide to buy?Have my first business premises (+4th business) 01/11/2017
Quit day job to run 3 businesses 08/02/2017
Started third business 25/06/2016
Son born 13/09/2015
Started a second business 03/08/2013
Officially the owner of my own business since 13/01/20120
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