Debate House Prices


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Nationwide November -0.3% MoM

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - British house prices fell for the fourth month in five in November, a survey showed on Wednesday, in a sign the downturn in the country's property market is becoming more entrenched.

Mortgage lender Nationwide said the average price of a property fell 0.3 percent in November, a slightly bigger drop than the 0.2 percent fall forecast by analysts. The annual rate of growth fell to 0.4 percent, its weakest since September 2009.

However, Nationwide chief economist Martin Gahbauer said supply pressures were starting to ease and there was little to suggest house price declines would accelerate in the months ahead.

"There are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture," he said.

Nationwide's figures tally with a raft of data showing last year's property market rebound has gone into reverse as Britons prepare for the toughest government spending squeeze in generations.

Banks, wary of an escalation in the euro zone's debt crisis, have also reined in lending to all but the safest of borrowers.

Still, there was little evidence that price falls were gathering momentum in the way they did during the downturn of 2008. The three-month on three-month rate of decline actually moderated to -1.3 percent from -1.5 percent in October.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSNLLUME6OK20101201

Rate of decline reducing already, no evidence of momentum for a crash, and that's before the reductions in supply that are surely coming.

Looks like the bulls got it right again....:D
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

-- President John F. Kennedy”
«13456713

Comments

  • Prices nearly unchanged from a year earlier
    YOY + 0.4% - it looks like flat was the correct call for 2010.
  • There is little evidence to suggest that house price
    declines are likely to accelerate in the months ahead.

    Much of the weakness in property values since the
    Spring has been driven by a return of sellers to the
    market, following unusually low levels of property for
    sale in 2009 and early 2010. However, there is little to
    indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale
    urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means
    that the downward pressure on house prices is only
    modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow
    of new property onto the market may be slowing downagain as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in
    prices and decide against marketing their properties at
    the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was
    observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually
    leading to a decline in the amount of property on the
    market.

    Interesting.
  • sarkin1
    sarkin1 Posts: 283 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSNLLUME6OK20101201

    Rate of decline reducing already, no evidence of momentum for a crash, and that's before the reductions in supply that are surely coming.

    Looks like the bulls got it right again....:D

    From the first line of the report for the hard of reading.

    British house prices fell for the fourth month in five in November, a survey showed on Wednesday, in a sign the downturn in the country's property market is becoming more entrenched.


    :cool:
  • As things currently stand, real house prices
    are 19% below their 2007 peak, whereas at the
    equivalent stage of the early 1990s downturn, they were 31% below their peak. The most likely explanation for
    this is that while real interest rates remained very high
    throughout the 1990-1992 period, they have fallen
    dramatically into negative territory in the current down
    cycle, providing more support to mortgage holders. The
    supportive interest rate environment shows up clearly in
    the number of repossessions, which has been much
    lower in the current downturn compared with the
    1990

    Interesting.
  • Snooze
    Snooze Posts: 2,041 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    t i m b e r

    :d
  • The article says supply pressures are beginning to ease which should stabilise prices. But this is November - I'd be very surprised if supply didn't ease at this time of year and then pick up again in spring. Buyers want to buy. Sellers want to sell. But buyers' CAN'T buy which means either transactions low again next year, or the sellers' who can afford to, have to reduce their price, while those who can't afford to have to stay put again. I don't believe transactions can stay so low for a long time - something has to give and it will be the price as long as mortgages are not available.
  • ,,,....:D

    :snow_laug
    FACT.
  • sarkin1 wrote: »
    From the first line of the report for the hard of reading.

    The salient points for those who are prematurely calling another crash...

    "The three-month on three-month rate of decline actually moderated to -1.3 percent from -1.5 percent in October."

    Nationwide chief economist Martin Gahbauer said supply pressures were starting to ease and there was little to suggest house price declines would accelerate in the months ahead.

    "There are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture,"
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Blacklight
    Blacklight Posts: 1,565 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Flat for 2010... another none news day.
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