Evaporating bulls

Malcolm.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Chucky and ISTL seem to have dissapeared, thats for sure. It's so peaceful

The argument has been won, the chief bears (ad, macaque e.t.c.) have been buying property while telling others not to. And the other bears haven't yet cottoned-on they've been had.

You can take a bear to water, but you can't make it drink.

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Apologies macaque, if the MacBulls missed a bit of your !!!!!! flinging antics.
So what were you trying to say?

What I am saying Mr Hamish Underslash Mctavish is that the bulls are slowly abandoning ship and the remaining rump have taken to ignoring inconvenient truths or promoting their cause with information from the rear view mirror and nebulous predictions.

Yesterday I posted a link to a report which revealed that 60% of house purchases in London are 'falling through' ..... 60%! Despite the significance of this, the bulls ignored the article and remained hidden in their fox holes. Two years ago such an article would have been pounced on by 10 bulls.

And then there is the bulls' last card in the pack, demographic change. The catastophic rise in population of recent years has been driven by immigration and Gordon Brown used it ruthlessly to stay in power. Immigrants created a tight housing market and increased government income for tax and spend policies. The benefits of mass immigration have now been used up and we are faced with the hangover. We no longer have the jobs (we have 8 million unemployed) the school places, hospital beds or government funded housing to accomodate mass immigration. Even as we speak the appeal of the UK as a destination for immigrants is in a steady U turn.

Turnbull2000

macaque wrote: »

Yesterday I posted a link to a report which revealed that 60% of house purchases in London are falling through, 60%! Despite the significance of this, the bulls ignored the article and remained hidden in their fox holes. Two years ago such an article would have been pounced on by 10 bulls.

How is this significant in respect of house prices falls? The vendor will either leave it on the market, rent it out or simply withdraw. Unless forced to do so, only a very small minority will drop the price in a significant manner.

Previous crashes were defined by forced selling and real terms falls rather than nominal. Government intervention has removed forced selling, and salary inflation is going nowhere. So that's the two biggest factors wiped out. The third new factor is the price floor set by affordability criteria - two mortgage payers required as standard instead of one, and much lower mortgage rates, ensuring prices will never return to the old 3.5x income.

Making this point is what got myself banned on HPC. The nutters and mods couldn't deal with it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

macaque wrote: »

What I am saying Mr Hamish Underslash Mctavish is that the bulls are slowly abandoning ship and the remaining rump have taken to ignoring inconvenient truths or promoting their cause with information from the rear view mirror and nebulous predictions.

Not at all my little simian friend.

The bulls are less vociferous because the argument has been won.

Scotland already returned to the previous peak, and set a new peak. 2010 is the peak year for Scottish house prices.

Any buyer up here with a half decent mortgage, even in 2007, is now tens of thousands ahead of those who delayed purchase and rented since.

Even in England, 2007 buyers with a tracker/decent SVR are now, on average, at breakeven or slightly ahead of the renter crowd.

As I've said from day one, time is the enemy of housing bears. The smart bears knew this and bought in early 2009. The rest of you..... well..... get to enjoy soaring rents, far more expensive mortgages, and house prices just a few percent off peak in most areas.

Yesterday I posted a link to a report which revealed that 60% of house purchases in London are 'falling through' ..... 60%! Despite the significance of this, the bulls ignored the article and remained hidden in their fox holes. Two years ago such an article would have been pounced on by 10 bulls.

Ahhhh, I see, it's an attention thing.

The thing is old boy, if I had to debunk every bearish post on this site, I wouldn't have any time left to do anything else.

As the argument has so clearly been won by the bulls, there's just no point.

And then there is the bulls' last card in the pack, demographic change. The catastophic rise in population of recent years has been driven by immigration and Gordon Brown used it ruthlessly to stay in power. Immigrants created a tight housing market and increased government income for tax and spend policies. The benefits of mass immigration have now been used up and we are faced with the hangover. We no longer have the jobs (we have 8 million unemployed) the school places, hospital beds or government funded housing to accomodate mass immigration. Even as we speak the appeal of the UK as a destination for immigrants is in a steady U turn.

And yet net migration is still rising. Population is still rising by 400,000 + a year. Household formation increasing by 250,000 + a year.

And contrary to all the bearish predictions, we still have a million more people in the UK than we did at the start of the recession.

So now available housing stock for new rental has dropped by 23% in a year, rents are at a new all time high, house building is at the lowest level since 1924, and house prices, even in winter, even with all the bad news, and even with endemic mortgage rationing, are barely drifting downwards at the rate of a percent or two a quarter.

And lets not forget, the biggest generation in history, bigger than the boomers, will start reaching FTB age in 2012, and surge all the way through until 2020.

You'd have to be an idiot not to see whats coming next.....

Aberdeenangarse

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i must say that i rather disliked chucky, by bully standards he seemed like a right sod

Made a couple of changes for you

AD9898_2

Malcolm. wrote: »

The argument has been won, the chief bears (ad, macaque e.t.c.) have been buying property while telling others not to. And the other bears haven't yet cottoned-on they've been had.

You can take a bear to water, but you can't make it drink.

Perhaps a little unfair, I was very fortunate to be able to buy outright. I don't think recently I've encouraged people not to buy. We live in strange times, some people are doing very well against the backdrop of quite a poorly economy, others on the other hand are having a torrid time.

My advice is do what you think is right for you. My outlook for the future is very grim, peak oil is going to flatten economies worldwide within a decade.

On the other hand I'm enjoying each day as it comes as when the !!!!!! hits the fan (and trust me, it will) there will be nothing you could have done on a personal level to avoid it

Graham_Devon

Love how the argument has been won, by housing bulls, now house prices are falling.

I must say, the battle is really amusing, no one ever backs down

Heyman_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Love how the argument has been won, by housing bulls, now house prices are falling.

I must say, the battle is really amusing, no one ever backs down

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rewired (Today)

Battle? LOL

The only amusing thing about this forum is how this whole West Side Story style Bulls and Bears nonsense endures. It's just a bunch of nutters talking about stuff they have no control over and a few saddos who create multiple IDs to engage in sock-puppetry.

Not surprising that some members don't spend all their waking time on here.

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ahhhh, I see, it's an attention thing.

You're dead right, it is an attention thing! An article from an estate agent that reveals 60% of sales 'falling through' most definitely deserves a response from the bulls, that is if they have a credible explanation.

A rational observer would concluded that this news reflects rapidly deteriorating sentiment within the house buying public. Your inability or unwillingness to come up with a response supports my contention that the shrinking rump of bulls have run out of ammo.

Cleaver

AD9898 wrote: »

Perhaps a little unfair, I was very fortunate to be able to buy outright. I don't think recently I've encouraged people not to buy.

Ad, you know I like you a lot, but you did spend a good couple of years telling people it was the worst time possible to buy a house, then went quiet for a bit before popping back to mention that you'd bought a house!

On my mental list of people who I had never buying a house in their lifetime only Brit was below you (if that man ever buys a property I'll eat my trousers). From memory when you came back and said you'd bought I reacted in the same way I would have if the Pope had logged on to cathlicsrus.com's forum to annouce that he was a bit fed up with all this Catholicism and was becoming a Buddhist.