House price crash update

Gorgeous_George

IMHO, bird flu or a similar disaster will be the cause of the next crash. Anything that reduces population by more than 2% - 3%.



GG

Woby_Tide

MarketOracle.co.uk wrote:

I have yet to see instance of a bubble that deflated gradually.

you must be buying cheap balloons. The ones we got from Asda seem to start deflating after 2 or 3 days but even after a week they've still got some air in them. it's most definitely a gradual deflation. I can post you some if you like?

The_Boss

Take a look at this from the Royal Institute of Chartered Accountants


Economic strength swells national price rise ripple
House prices rose for the 11th consecutive month at the fastest pace in four years says RICS’ UK housing market survey published on 12 October 2006.

45.1 percent more Chartered Surveyors reported a rise than a fall in September, up from 34.9 percent in August, and more than double the long run average of 21 percent. RICS estate agents reported that price rises are being driven by a combination of would-be buyers returning to the market and the limited availability of property.

Price increases were again led by London and the South East, boosted by the a booming City economy, with rising investor confidence pushing the stock market to its highest level since May. Estate agents report that ‘gazumping’ is taking place amid prices in the capital rising at the fastest pace since January 2000. Elsewhere, a ripple effect is taking place across the country with house prices in the North West and East Anglia picking up sharply, while Wales, Yorkshire and Humberside also recorded price rises.

Buyer enquiries rose for the sixteenth consecutive month, the longest run on record. Above trend economic growth combined with a strengthening employment market continued to boost buyer confidence but the rise is the smallest since April 2006. New instructions to sell property fell for the fourth month in a row, at the fastest pace since June 2002, indicating that households feel under little pressure to put their property on the market.

Optimism in price rises is at its highest since October 2004. However, surveyors expect a modest slowdown in sales activity as interest rates are expected to rise again.

RICS spokesman, Jeremy Leaf, said:

“Greater economic activity has created a ripple effect in house prices across the country. With stocks of property low and buyer enquiries on the increase, sellers remain in poll position to benefit in the short term.

“Continuing house price rises will make it difficult for the Bank of England to leave the base interest rate level at 4.75 percent, unless the economy shows unexpected weakness. With affordability conditions for first-time buyers worsening, as price rises outstrip wages, higher interest rates will not help. However, a strong economy means that the housing market should see a soft landing in 2007.”

Market_Oracle

ReportInvestor wrote:

Here's the graph they produced

And here's the article

LOL

Thanks, thats nice

Heres errr.... mine............http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article74.html


:beer:

ashm1

Hi,

I guess that Royal Institute of Chartered Accountants article shows the importance of London-city region. So I suppose get a slowdown or boom there and everyone commutes the effect back. That would explain why a studio flat costs 115K in my local town and average salaries are about 18K!

I guess I need to re-read some of Saskia Sassen's work!


Kind regards,

Ashley.

sanfrancisco

Average wage in the country in £23.4k and the median wage is £18.9. Please bear this in mind everybody.

Zippy2006

ashm1 wrote:

Hi,

I guess that Royal Institute of Chartered Accountants article shows the importance of London-city region. So I suppose get a slowdown or boom there and everyone commutes the effect back. That would explain why a studio flat costs 115K in my local town and average salaries are about 18K!


Kind regards,

Ashley.

Economics and trends in the housing market in London and the SE will always dictate a lot of whats going on in the housing market though out the UK. Interest rates are generally based on the current scenario in that area.

This is the way it been for a long time now and it will no doubt continue this until something radical happens such as UK joining Euroland or Dissolution of the UK.

There again we are probably better off with the current status quo or are we? a whole new debate me thinks??

mystic_trev

The_Boss wrote:

"However, a strong economy means that the housing market should see a soft landing in 2007.”

Funny RICS said that last year! Just how many "soft landings" are we going to have predicted?

Guy_Montag

The_Boss wrote:

T However, a strong economy means that the housing market should see a soft landing in 2007.”

Apologies to whoever said:

"8% yoy growth is not a soft landing; it's stil a boom"

F_T_Buyer

The_Boss wrote:

Take a look at this from the Royal Institute of Chartered Accountants

Since when were Surveyors Accountants? I think you've made a boo boo.

Oh, and when else do RICS say any news that isn't bullish? Just like they said they predicted the market correctly in 2005 of +3%, yet their own survey showed prices falling for every month apart from December.

RICS are spin merchants with a vested interest like all the others!

mystic_trev wrote:

Funny RICS said that last year! Just how many "soft landings" are we going to have predicted?

On the road to recession, there is a sign at every turn saying "soft landing"!