House price crash update

lypsey

Hello
I posted here a few weeks ago after Martin was on BBC saying house prices may come down . I saw this today

http://www.aboutproperty.co.uk/news/house-prices/house-prices-down-in-september-$454329.htm

3.42 % down in 1 month , perhaps Martin has more influence than we think

Gorgeous_George

Yawn.

That is, of course, asking prices and does not mean a great deal.

Don't house prices slacken off slightly during the winter months anyway?



GG

LizEstelle

Er, your 'update' updated:

And I quote:

'The Nationwide has found that house prices rose by 1.3% during September, lifting the annual rate of growth to 8.2%'. (BBC news)

Maybe there are lies, damned lies and...

Jags_2

Asking prices rightfully don't mean a lot, but they can be a decent early warning indicator, as selling prices correlate with these with about a 6 - 9 month lag. 1 IR rise and another next month are likely to put a bit of a damper on things, but how much is anyones guess. We'd need something a bit heavier to scare more people to cause a major tumble, but then again, the Big drops in US prices weren't caused by 1 event, just reaching critical mass, then the stories in the papers started.

lypsey

George
"Yawn.That is, of course, asking prices and does not mean a great deal."


Please barman , can I have a pint of what he's drinking. Are you a complete wind up merchant . When I was at school if the asking price was down then that naturally means the selling price is down . Unless of course you know different

PoorDave

lypsey wrote:

George
"Yawn.That is, of course, asking prices and does not mean a great deal."


Please barman , can I have a pint of what he's drinking. Are you a complete wind up merchant . When I was at school if the asking price was down then that naturally means the selling price is down . Unless of course you know different

George is right to say asking prices are not necessarily correlated to sale prices - the percentage of the asking price achieved could change, thus resulting in houses selling for the same price. Sold prices can't be argued with.

However, the change in percentage of asking price achieved is unlikely.

PoorDave

I should also add that Martin has much more influence than you realise, so you'd better be careful!

:money:

Plasticman

It doesn't mean a great deal as it doesn't compare with the normal monthly fluctuations. For all I know asking prices may go down every September. I did like this bit though..............

The first-time buyer share of the market continues to be a concern and I would once again like to take the opportunity to call upon the government to do more to assist this vulnerable sector of the market. Affordable housing schemes need to increase and stamp duty needs to be brought in line with the pace of house price inflation. I would hope to see this sector claim around 25 per cent of the market

.....or maybe house prices just need to come down!

lypsey

Dave you completely miss the point , nobody is going to offer MORE than the asking price are they. The asking price could of course be lower , I think currently people only offer 93% of asking price.

So this article is VERY important , it is a guide to what is happening. Providing the author of the survey always quotes selling prices or asking prices then this gives a fantastic guide to the future

As I said before - HOUSE PRICE CRASH - here we come

PoorDave

lypsey wrote:

Dave you completely miss the point , nobody is going to offer MORE than the asking price are they. The asking price could of course be lower , I think currently people only offer 93% of asking price.

So this article is VERY important , it is a guide to what is happening. Providing the author of the survey always quotes selling prices or asking prices then this gives a fantastic guide to the future

As I said before - HOUSE PRICE CRASH - here we come

Some houses do indeed sell for more than the asking price - depends on your area, so won't be highlighted by general data over wide areas. The same is true for percentage achieved - varies widely.

I think your post is totally tainted by the fact you've already decided there will be a HPC, and are now looking for evidence to post, rather than looking for an objective piece of data.

For the record, i don't argue with the fact that what you might politely call a "downward correction" in house prices is increasingly likely.

mystic_trev

Hmmm don't think we've had an HPC thread for a couple of weeks!

The slowdown in HPI has taken longer than I expected. If you're bored enough to go through some of my previous posts you'd see I'd reckoned on a strong Spring / Summer tailing off into Autumn, and that hasn't happened.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. It looks like another IR hike in November and that might help "tip the scales" and change sentiment.All bubbles are different and this one is no exception, however, it could still have further to go.