House price crash update

brunnle1

http://www.homes-on-line.com/holportal/frameset/index.php?http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/10/02/cnhouse02.xml

Plasticman

brunnle1 wrote:

"House prices are still affordable and will rise rapidly over the coming year"

http://www.homes-on-line.com/holportal/frameset/index.php?http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/10/02/cnhouse02.xml

Yes, I think you are probably right. It will be interesting to see the position early in the new year as that may set the scene for the following months unless something dramatic happens with the economy. I remember somebody (Deemy I think) posting that prices would start to crash in September 2005. Still no signs that it's any closer to happening. I guess if prices continue to follow the current trend then a crash in the future becomes much more likely, rather than the possibility of a long stagnation.

westernpromise

undercoat11 wrote:

...I worry for my children. They will have to come out of university with a debt (if they go) and then have to borrow hundreds of thousands of pounds for a house.

It's social engineering. Council tenants buying houses changed the owner-occupier profile of the country and caused a long-term alteration to the earnings:house price ratio.

Massively indebting young people will change it back again because they'll all rent instead.

Buying a house will then look like a bad bet and we can all go back to renting off the council. The glory days of the 70s will return.

MORPH3US

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6043192.stm

james3333

if there is a house market crash, will interest rates go up or down?

desperadoV2

I totally can't believe it. Saw the news that house prices are still on increase.

1. Interest Rates are High and Rising
2. Unemployment is on the rise
3. Houses Prices 5-6 times the average salary
4. First-time buyers can't afford to get onto property ladder

But still house price is still on increase.

Its ridiculous. I can't afford to buy a property and its very depressing

UK007BullDog

House market is very strong here in my areas.

1. The city is very close and people are moving into the area as the big companies are hiring like crazy.

2. Lots of foreigners moving in looking for places to rent, as there are not enough the rents are rising and there is a shortage of BTL.

3. In my home area the prices are also going up on the established stock near the grammar schools.

But some day soon it will have to stop unless the lenders are forever changing their income multiples or affordability calculations, so that they can lend money. They are not doing it to help the borrowers. If they cannot lend they are out of business. I think it is the stamp duty which is actually stopping some of the sales as a lot of property is now more than £250K.

Market_Oracle

MORPH3US wrote:

didn't understand a word of that... ok, I understood the "just about to bottom" bit but thats it.

Can you explain the first bits?

M

Basically, Crude oil was weigh overbought it needed to correct thus the decline is technical, i.e. the fundementals have not changed. It has now moved to an 'technical' oversold state, and thus prices 'should' be supported at $56.

Here more- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article72.html

Market_Oracle

westernpromise wrote:

It's social engineering. Council tenants buying houses changed the owner-occupier profile of the country and caused a long-term alteration to the earnings:house price ratio.

Massively indebting young people will change it back again because they'll all rent instead.

Buying a house will then look like a bad bet and we can all go back to renting off the council. The glory days of the 70s will return.

I'm working on an article that explains why house prices have not fallen, will post it here when finished. But basically its Av earnings X Base Rate X Average House prices. - In those terms, we are nowhere near the highs of the early 1990's in unaffordability terms. Hence why they are stubbonly still rising.

mystic_trev

MarketOracle.co.uk wrote:

Basically, Crude oil was weigh overbought it needed to correct thus the decline is technical, i.e. the fundementals have not changed. It has now moved to an 'technical' oversold state, and thus prices 'should' be supported at $56.

Here more- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article72.html

I've read several articles saying that Bush has an agreement with some of the Arab states to increase the amount of barrels produced to help him in the mid term elections, and that the price will start rising again after that!

I'd like to add that I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I wouldn't be surprised by anything Bush did!