Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

Exocet

Blacklight wrote: »

Reading between the lines, this statistical anomaly has more to do with geographical disparity and reduced lending due to the Halifax ceasing all interest only loans than it does with any property price falls.

How do you do that? I am using Internet Explorer. Is it a Firefox plug in?

Seriously mate, its the first time in 30 years that we've needed to read between the lines anyway. I dont recall when they were going up that geographical disparity and Halifax savers accounts were mentioned.

neverdespairgirl

chucky wrote: »

ahh right and that the fact that I've pointed out that there is a blatant geographic difference in volume of sales in the Halifax report has obviously nothing to do with it.

try again please

For example. Sales up 100%. Supply up 200%. Demand is falling, relative to supply. So the number of sales doesn't tell you much.

Graham_Devon

FTBFun wrote: »

I'm not refuting anything. My point still stands though - just because prices have fallen according to a statistical measurement doesn't translate to additional bargaining power when someone actually comes to purchase a property.

Oh come on.

If house prices have fallen on average on an index 6k, then there is nothing wrong with a simple comment from someone saving up for a house but currently renting saying that's basically their rent for the year they have saved.

They are saving, they probably don't have the house they want in their sights yet, so which house they eventually look at is neither here nor there.

And it does translate into bargaining power.

shupufski_2

So....

Some believe that a fall in prices will mean a contraction in supply and therefore a floor being put under price falls. This will inevitably result in price rises once demand starts to outstrip supply.

Nonsense.

The assumption is that sellers are divided into two types - those that have to accept market price (i.e. have to sell) and those that don’t (i.e. can remove their house from the market).

For supply to be restricted in a meaningful way, the number of sellers in the second category has to be sufficiently high to push down the overall level of supply to below the amount demanded. This may have been true just after the meltdown in 08 but unemployment has risen since then, wages have declined and full time working has also declined.Add in the more conservative lending practices and decline in “property fever” and you end up with demand down as low as it can go. Therefore the supply that needs to be removed is probably much higher than before.

I suspect that there are also more people who actually have to sell than last year.

chucky

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

For example. Sales up 100%. Supply up 200%. Demand is falling, relative to supply. So the number of sales doesn't tell you much.

you miss the point

there is a big difference in volumes of sales between the North and the South East.
see the link.

calculating sales prices off a small volume of sales data will skew the results.
do you not see that?

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And it does translate into bargaining power.

Not necessarily.
When you start looking at the specifics, the amount dropped could be far less, or could even be increased in price.

Of course the specific area could be even lower meaning your bargaining power is even better.

You cannot take one index UK average rate as bargaining power as innevitably it could be countered with another more specific index.

FTBFun

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Oh come on.

If house prices have fallen on average on an index 6k, then there is nothing wrong with a simple comment from someone saving up for a house but currently renting saying that's basically their rent for the year they have saved.

But how would they know this? This is the average house fall and doesn't necessarily translate to the real life situation when someone buys a property.

They are saving, they probably don't have the house they want in their sights yet, so which house they eventually look at is neither here nor there.

And it does translate into bargaining power.

So they have "saved" money despite not being in a position to purchase anything? That's just ridiculous.

Really2

chucky wrote: »

you miss the point

there is a big difference in volumes of sales between the North and the South East.
see the link.

calculating sales prices off a small volume of sales data will skew the results.
do you not see that?

Indeed the Halifax and Nationwide have a £4.5K difference in average price, the nationwide has nearly always been higher.

It would be hard not to argue in that case the nationwide methodology has a more southern bias, or that the Halifax has a more of a northern bias.

Otherwise you would expect both to have virtually identical data all of the time?

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Not necessarily.
When you start looking at the specifics, the amount dropped could be far less, or could even be increased in price.

Of course the specific area could be even lower meaning your bargaining power is even better.

You cannot take one index UK average rate as bargaining power as innevitably it could be countered with another more specific index.

Oh yawn.

Such a simple comment, drilled down into like this. I mean seriously, what gives?

It's about an average, and you are trying to take their comment which is talking about averages and apply drilled down specifics to it. Not something they were trying to even imply.

I know what the guy meant...and the comments sections are full of the same kind of comments, along with dancing...

Blacklight

Exocet wrote: »

Seriously mate, its the first time in 30 years that we've needed to read between the lines anyway. I dont recall when they were going up that geographical disparity and Halifax savers accounts were mentioned.

Two major factors are a play here. Firstly Halifax aren't providing as much of the product that they were to anyone anymore. Secondly, what little of that product is being consumed has been in the north of the country, where as we all know, most of the public sector are employed.