Guess the rate date challenge...

financialbliss

Guess the rate date challenge...

Many of you will be on a tracker or variable mortgage rate, or soon to come off a fixed rate product onto a standard variable rate. If that’s the case, you’ll probably have an interest in the Bank of England (BoE) base rate - Currently at a historic low of just 0.5%.

Anyone care to join me in a bit of fun, taking a guess as to when the base rate may change?

Inspired by the fact that there’s been recent votes for a rate increase, although they were in the minority.

There aren’t many rules:

• Post in this thread the month / year and the rate change.
• More than one person can choose the same month / year.
• The “challenge” stays open until the base rate changes.
• IMPORTANT: You only get one guess.

Base rate is currently 0.5%

[STRIKE]1. FinancialBliss: July 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75% [/STRIKE]
2. chirpchirp: January 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
[STRIKE]3. poppyoscar: May 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]4. gallygirl: April 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]5. mummyofonechild: May 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE] 6. newgirly: March 2011 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]7. pencekeeper: August 2011 - INCREASE :0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
8. Luv2Budget: January 2013 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
[STRIKE]9. pawlala: June 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]10. Nitramak62: August 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
11. gerbiljo: December 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
[STRIKE] 12. golfiematt: October 2010 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]13. laurasavon: January 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75% [/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]14. wynnvegas: February 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE] 15. JonnyBravo: October 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE] 16. hughmungas1986: September 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]17. mlz1413: August 2011 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]18. hillcats: November 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
19. cha97michelle: April 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
[STRIKE] 20. LilacPixie: September 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
[/STRIKE][STRIKE] 21. LittleMissKitty: March 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]22. wildfrog: May 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
23. Froggy-G: March 2020 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
[STRIKE]24. alex_p: April 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]25. Tesco Tom: June 2011 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]26. unhappy_shopper: June 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]27. Niksan: September 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]28. Spiggle: June 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]29. uzubairu: August 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]30. Tabatha Kitten: May 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
31. originalmiscellany: January 2012 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
32. kkgree1: February 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
[STRIKE] 33. curlygirl1971: October 2011 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
34. Engeroosi: February 2012 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
[STRIKE] 35. kingster2069: October 2011 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%[/STRIKE]
[STRIKE]36. Intoodeep: November 2011 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%[/STRIKE]
37. someday soon: March 2012 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
38. shadybrady: August 2013 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
39. runninglea: April 2015 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
40. Twiddy: November 2012 - INCREASE : 0.25% to 0.75%
41. MsWow: May 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
42. Tilly MFW in 6 YRS: June 2012 - INCREASE : 0.5% to 1%
43. ultrarunner: July 2014 - INCREASE : 1% to 1.5%


Next MPC decision: 8th December 2011
Next MPC minutes: 21st December 2011

Bank of England: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Financial Bliss.

financialbliss

Further information.

Here's a few graphs to support the information above.

MSE Voting summary.
A summary of the month/year voted by everyone in post #1.



Historic base rates in 5 year chunks from 1975 onwards.
As the title says. I've taken every base rate move since 1975 (235 of them) and generated a summary in 5 year chunks.




Recent MPC voting decisions.
A summary of votes cast by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

financialbliss

Reserved post.

Just in case I run out of space in the first two

chirpchirp

Jan 2012 0.5-1.0

poppyoscar_3

May 2011 increase of 0.25% from 0.5% - 0.75%

gallygirl

poppyoscar wrote: »

May 2011 increase of 0.25% from 0.5% - 0.75%

Almost the same - April 2011 increase of 0.25% from 0.5% - 0.75% (hope chirpchirp is right :rotfl:)

mummyofonechild

Definitely a 0.25 increase to 0.75%. I will go for May 2011

kabads

financialbliss wrote: »

Inspired by the fact that there’s been recent votes for a rate increase, although they were in the minority.

There's only been one vote (not votes) for an increase.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2010/mpc1008.pdf

Ernst and Young also think this will run for possibly another 4 years, but at least until the end of 2011.

newgirly

I'm gonna guess up 0.50 to 1% in march 2011.

pencekeeper

Hmm, I say the rate will increase by 0.5% in August 2011.

Luv2Budget

I say an increase of 0.5% in January 2013