House Prices To Rise By 20%...

Graham_Devon

Linton wrote: »

Allow me - its all very simple....

The indexes will on a month to month basis jump up and down, not because of any underlying change but simply because the type and location of houses being bought and sold happens to change.

For example if for purely random reasons a few extra houses are sold in London and a few less in Liverpool, the average house price will go up. The next month the situation could be reversed.

This type of random change in the raw data with no relevence to the thing you are trying to measure is called noise fluctuation.

How to remove this confusion in the data - average over a longer time period and/or employ mathematical techniques to reduce the effect of the noise. Either way small changes in one month's data dont mean anything.

Of course.

But since when were we, on this thread, looking at house prices over a long period? We weren't. Only the bulls are now to try and get away from the fact house prices are falling and the express have an article about them rising.

Anyway, I'm happy, you can all convince yourself about leng term trends etc. I'm happy to believe prices are falling and you can all make out I'm a total dunce as much as you like for sticking to the simple facty that house prices ARE falling.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm happy, you can all convince yourself about leng term trends etc. I'm happy to believe prices are falling and you can all make out I'm a total dunce as much as you like for sticking to the simple facty that house prices ARE falling.

oh dear.... are they falling or have they fallen by a very small percentages for a few months (specifically just on the Halifax and Acadametrics indexes)...

Malcolm.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But since when were we, on this thread, looking at house prices over a long period? We weren't. Only the bulls are now to try and get away from the fact house prices are falling and the express have an article about them rising.

House prices to rise 20%. It's future tense.

Graham_Devon

This is pathetic.

Enjoy guys.

Malcolm.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

This is pathetic.

Enjoy guys.

Whoever bet on page 18 owes me money.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

This is pathetic.

not knowing what trend analysis means isn't any reason to get upset... tsk...

System

Malcolm. wrote: »

Whoever bet on page 18 owes me money.

He'll be back

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/190600

:beer:

Thank you Hamish. Here are some more words of wisdom from the Nationwide.

The US sub-prime crisis has created turmoil in international financial markets, but this is unlikely to have a significant additional effect on the rate of growth of house prices in the UK in the short term.

Nationwide report Thursday 30th August 2007

Economic tailwinds are turning into headwinds, and house price inflation is expected to drop from the current rate of 9.7% to 0% by this time next year

Nationwide report Friday 16 November 2007

FTBFun

I like the slating of the Express here. Because, obviously, you shouldn't listen at all to anything you read in the tabloids:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2625871

Oh.

chucky

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

I lol'd, even you don't believe this bollox mate I'm sure it was you just trying a bit of winding up..

The front page of the Express says 'House prices to soar !!!!!!!!!!!!'
On page 2 there is a story with the headline 'Turkeys hate Christmas':D

i remember someone very similar to you who lol'd at a very similar headline in 2009 right when house prices start to go up... he was wrong then too

Dan: wrote: »

ad9898 wrote: »

Lol, you know I couldn't stay away too long with this kind of bait

ad9898 wrote: »

the Daily Express....... with headlines only slightly less fictitious than the Daily Sport.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=20870523&postcount=23