House Prices To Rise By 20%...

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

So Graham, in answer to the question you asked, viz: "When the the express ever report anything BUT house price rises?" (sic)

The answer is: "When prices were going down".

Drop me a PM if you need any more explanation. I know it's tricky stuff.

Thanks, I will.

I may start with "Prices are going down now" and "what are they reporting". But I doubt I would get an answer...if I did, it would only be "you don't understand".

julieq

Oh look, a shiny thing...

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Oh look, a shiny thing...

Well that's my point about not answering completely blown out of the water.

Will amuse plenty though.

julieq

Ok, if we can fix on answering your question, there are two basic answers.

One is Zeitgeist. When prices are going down, more newspaper readers like to read about how low they're going to go. During a period of stability and recovery, more readers like to have that confirmed. Readers buy newspapers. Your contention that the Daily Express reported nothing but rises was, if I may use the expression, blown out of the water, it just reflects what it thinks its readers want to read.

The second one is that actually prices aren't going down. They're subject to fluctuations month on month, but its noise level. A more reliable indicator is annualised changes, and that's remained positive. There's a strong consensus around real terms stagnation.

So the Express is (a) reporting what it thinks will make people pick up the newspaper and buy it, and (b) reporting accurately on the basis of the consensus.

phil_b_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Thanks, I will.

I may start with "Prices are going down now"

House prices are going down?

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

The second one is that actually prices aren't going down. They're subject to fluctuations month on month, but its noise level.

Oh, I see. My bad.

I thought prices were falling, and that's why the index's reported falling prices. Silly me eh!!!

julieq

Sorry, can someone else explain noise level fluctuation to Graham and why trend analysis tends to use longer term averaging? I've got to go out to dinner. I'd forgotten how much time he takes up.

andykn

julieq wrote: »

Sorry, can someone else explain noise level fluctuation to Graham and why trend analysis tends to use longer term averaging? I've got to go out to dinner. I'd forgotten how much time he takes up.

Indeed, look at how many times prices fell for a month during the last boom.

And remember how many successive price rises we had to wait through until the uber bears were prepared to admit the crash, if not over, had at least paused.

Blacklight

andykn wrote: »

Indeed, look at how many times prices fell for a month during the last boom.

And remember how many successive price rises we had to wait through until the uber bears were prepared to admit the crash, if not over, had at least paused.

My recollection is that following more than a year of consecutive rises after prices fell during 2008, people finally decided the crash was all over and made up 'House Price Crash mkII'.

Not that there's any evidence or anything to trigger further falls in property prices, some people just like to cling to the hope because they missed the bottom.

nembot

Buy more houses then....