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Debate House Prices
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House Prices To Rise By 20%...
Comments
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sorry no can do - it would take too long...Sorry, can someone else explain noise level fluctuation to Graham and why trend analysis tends to use longer term averaging?
the problem with the drops in the indexes over the last few months is that even though they may have dropped just under 2% (if that on other indexes) they seem to be pretty content even though prices are still higher than a year ago...
what happened to the 30% and 50% price drops - have you given up hope now?0 -
Sorry, can someone else explain noise level fluctuation to Graham and why trend analysis tends to use longer term averaging? I've got to go out to dinner. I'd forgotten how much time he takes up.
You could explain it all you like.
No amount of explaining YOUR personal theory as an optimist on prices not dropping, when the indexes show them dropping could convince me.
Lets face it, you can't even convince yourself, otherwise you'd have explained it. Anything that takes too much time to explain, probably aint worth bothering with.
Not one of those who you put the call out to explain it will explain it either. Funny that.0 -
the thread is on Page 2 - if it was explained we would be on Page 18 by now... people know you are slow but at least they understand it's not your faultGraham_Devon wrote: »Not one of those who you put the call out to explain it will explain it either. Funny that.
trend analysis isn't Julieq's personal theory it's a form of technical analysis of data trends...Graham_Devon wrote: »No amount of explaining YOUR personal theory0 -
the thread is on Page 2 - if it was explained we would be on Page 18 by now... people know you are slow but at least they understand it's not your fault
ps. trend analysis isn't Julieq's personal theory it's analysis of data trends...
In other words "none of us can explain it, and anyway, you are too thick to understand even if we could somehow explain it and well, yer but no but yer but no....but yer....but no.....someone please thank me"0 -
it would take too long and even then there are no "100% guarantees" of you getting it.Graham_Devon wrote: »In other words "none of us can explain it, and anyway, you are too thick to understand even if we could somehow explain it
the previous precedents of you not getting it but coming back a week later still not understanding it are
understanding YoY graphs
the difference between notional and real prices
wage increases = wage inflation
and now we can add trend analysis to that neverending list...0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »In other words "none of us can explain it, and anyway, you are too thick to understand even if we could somehow explain it and well, yer but no but yer but no....but yer....but no.....someone please thank me"
I've been out of the loop for a while, can you please post a link to a table/chart that shows that house prices are currently going down?0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »In other words "none of us can explain it, and anyway, you are too thick to understand even if we could somehow explain it and well, yer but no but yer but no....but yer....but no.....someone please thank me"
You can take a horse to water. You can even stick a horses mouth in the water. However, sometimes it will not drink. It may even drown.
BTW. The horse is called Graham, in case you're a little slow with anologies.0 -
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Graham_Devon wrote: »You could explain it all you like.
No amount of explaining YOUR personal theory as an optimist on prices not dropping, when the indexes show them dropping could convince me.
Lets face it, you can't even convince yourself, otherwise you'd have explained it. Anything that takes too much time to explain, probably aint worth bothering with.
Not one of those who you put the call out to explain it will explain it either. Funny that.
Allow me - its all very simple....
The indexes will on a month to month basis jump up and down, not because of any underlying change but simply because the type and location of houses being bought and sold happens to change.
For example if for purely random reasons a few extra houses are sold in London and a few less in Liverpool, the average house price will go up. The next month the situation could be reversed.
This type of random change in the raw data with no relevence to the thing you are trying to measure is called noise fluctuation.
How to remove this confusion in the data - average over a longer time period and/or employ mathematical techniques to reduce the effect of the noise. Either way small changes in one month's data dont mean anything.0 -
Uhoh, see you all on page 18!This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0
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